[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221728 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS/NRN AND CNTRL AL/NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 221728Z - 221930Z

PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AS
STORMS TRAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH BETTER
SHEAR NORTH OF THE SWD SAGGING FRONT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/INFLOW OUT
AHEAD OF IT...SUFFICIENT COLD POOL ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. 

MULTICELLULAR TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PULSE CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT AS WEAK
CAP HAS BEEN REMOVED. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND
70. MODIFIED OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH
STRONGER CELLS. MORNING RAOBS WERE ALSO FAIRLY SATURATED IN THE
LOW/MID-LEVELS WITH PWATS NEAR TWO INCHES. THUS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH WEAK GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT THAT IS NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREA VAD PROFILERS INDICATE THAT 25 KT OR
GREATER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS N TO JUST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 07/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

32688559 32258797 32438931 33218946 33728808 34328659
34938529 34968447 34818344 34208313 33128428 

WWWW