[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 201202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201202 
ILZ000-WIZ000-201330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624...

VALID 201202Z - 201330Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A LARGE MCS FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE MUCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE WRN EDGE OF THE MCS IS FEEDING UPON THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT
MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS ERN IA AND SW WI. A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
ALSO EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO NRN IL WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT AS
FURTHER EAST...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

40718867 40248959 40599072 41889006 42788968 43078902
42698769 

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