[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jul 20 07:33:48 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200732 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-200900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...FAR ERN IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624...

VALID 200732Z - 200900Z

A SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WILL
CONTINUE AS A LARGE EVOLVING BOW MOVES ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS MN AND WI WITH A MCS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE MCS IS MOVING SEWD NEAR 40 KT AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A MAXIMUM
IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2000 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD INTO
ERN WI...LAKE MICHIGAN AND NERN IL SUGGESTING THE MCS SHOULD TRACK
ESEWD INTO THE MILWAUKEE BY 09Z AND INTO THE CHICAGO AREA BY 10Z TO
11Z. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30
TO 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE A  SEVERE THREAT. THE QUICK
FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WITH BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

41198846 41429035 42289105 43049091 43539055 43848966
43778852 43328755 42258724 

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