[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jul 20 00:58:58 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200057 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 620...

VALID 200057Z - 200230Z

THREAT FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS NWRN IA
AND VICINITY.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER E AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES.

AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS NWRN IA AND VICINITY...WITH
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT STILL BEING SUPPRESSED ATTM. THOUGH
NNW-SSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LYING ACROSS CENTRAL IA...NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET -- IS MAINLY
OCCURRING FROM SERN MN/SWRN WI INTO NRN IL...WELL E OF THE WARM
SECTOR.  EVENING DVN RAOB SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE BASED NEAR 700 MB
ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE AROUND 1500 J/KG ELEVATED
CAPE EXISTS.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT --
AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT -- WILL REMAIN FROM SERN MN SEWD ACROSS
NERN IA AND SRN WI INTO NERN IL/NWRN IN...AND THAT TORNADO THREAT
HAS DECREASED ACROSS WW.

..GOSS.. 07/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

43529704 44289237 44009054 43308817 42138757 40688762
40919012 42429338 42199702 

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