[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 19 14:41:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191440 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-191615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN / W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI / NERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191440Z - 191615Z

ONGOING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED SOON..

AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO DISTINCT MESOSCALE
SYSTEMS...ONE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE EXTENDING FROM 30 NNE MSP TO 15
NE FRM...AND ANOTHER E OF MCW. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT BOTH OF
THESE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED N OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD
THROUGH SWRN MN...CNTRL IA AND NRN IL INTO SRN WI.  VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z MPX SOUNDING COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG SWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF INFLOW AIR MASS WITH STORMS LIKELY BECOMING MORE
SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME THIS MORNING.

GIVEN THE 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY 12Z ABR
SOUNDING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...SHOULD SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE.  LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CORES GIVEN THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

43229360 44339344 45049203 44729065 44159011 43538967
42648974 42099086 42219174 

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