[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 19 01:01:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190059 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-190230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...614...

VALID 190059Z - 190230Z

CONTINUE WW 614.  REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 613 WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST
OF THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AREA...MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN NOW AND 03-04Z. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...THROUGH CONNECTICUT/RHODE ISLAND...INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL PROBABLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND AREAS BY 02-03Z...BEFORE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.  PEAK GUSTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG
GUST FRONT.  AND...DESPITE CONSIDERABLE COOLING OF PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...POTENTIALLY COLD
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER
DOWNBURSTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

..KERR.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

42177099 42157030 41576994 40927089 40087351 39207515
39377657 39917818 39927809 40257649 41087528 41677397 

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