[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 19 00:44:36 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190042 
MOZ000-190215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190042Z - 190215Z

AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL
MO IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED BY AROUND
02Z.

ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUES TO PERSIST/MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AREAS OF THE
MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST /ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARMINGTON
MO/. COINCIDENT WITH MEAN PROPAGATION...THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE
FAVORING A SW-NE ORIENTED WIND SHIFT/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO. RUC-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 50 MILES OR
SO DOWNSTREAM/SOUTHWEST OF THE EXISTING SUPERCELL...WITH MLCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AS FAR WEST AS PULASKI/TEXAS/HOWELL COUNTIES MO
PER ADJUSTED 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED RAOB. THUS...CONTINUED
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OFFSET
VIA A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING CINH/COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO A CONVECTIVE DOWNSWING.

..GUYER.. 07/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

37899253 38049168 37709077 37119050 36729074 36589167
36639241 36939279 37269282 

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