[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 22:14:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 182212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182212 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-182345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...NJ...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611...612...

VALID 182212Z - 182345Z

NEW WWS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES
OF WW 611 AND 612.

NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
IS ONGOING.  AND...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS AS ZONE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH
OVERSPREADS PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS.  FLOW FIELDS ARE GENERALLY
WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA THROUGH
NEW YORK CITY AND THE BOSTON AREA REMAINS VERY WARM/MOIST...AND WILL
BE SLOW TO COOL.  GRADUALLY EVOLUTION OF A VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE WITH
BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE UPPER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...CTP...

41657002 41237081 40857232 40507348 39607478 39907621
40207593 40697527 41227403 41657260 42107138 42427082
42297006 

WWWW