[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 17:36:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 181735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181734 
LAZ000-TXZ000-181930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 181734Z - 181930Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN
NEAR/WEST OF HOUSTON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS/SMALL HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES WESTWARD MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE HOUSTON METRO SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE
JACKSON TX. AT PEARLAND...A 37 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AROUND
17Z...WITH A GUST TO 35 KTS AT HOUSTON/ELLINGTON AROUND THE SAME
TIME. STRONG DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION ON THIS PERIPHERY OF THIS
EXISTING ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO A WITH RESULTANT EXPANSION OF
TSTMS/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE SHORT
TERM.

OVERALL REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA...WHERE A SIMILAR ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST. OVERALL ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

28999621 29449646 30269616 31499425 31489302 30689152
30049115 29989278 30049369 29719461 

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