[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 05:58:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180556 
OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-180730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND AND NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610...

VALID 180556Z - 180730Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR BEFORE STORMS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NRN IL WITH A COLD FRONT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN IND INTO SWRN
ONTARIO. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F
AND AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MCS OVER FAR SRN LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS NRN IL. IN
ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MCS IS MOVING SWD INTO AND
AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE ESPECIALLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MCS.

..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

40468649 40498831 41108863 41598826 41788668 41728525
41488472 40958471 40688480 40568532 

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