[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 05:34:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180532 
MEZ000-180700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180532Z - 180700Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE MOVING
INTO NRN MAINE. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WRN QUEBEC WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING EWD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF
THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IS MOVING INTO AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WRN MAINE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SUGGESTS
THE LINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS LIKELY IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP. THIS MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE
MARGINAL. THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

45056847 45386979 45897028 47316955 47686881 47646785
46516707 45456739 45086840 

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