[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 03:14:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180312 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-180445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SRN LWR MI...NRN IND...NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 608...610...

VALID 180312Z - 180445Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 608 AND 610.  ADDITIONAL WW
SOUTH OF WW 608 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

FOCUS FOR MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 05-06Z
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN/EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA.
THIS AREA REMAINS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY MID-LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  IN GENERAL...WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.  VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA
...HAS BEEN SLOW TO COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER
80S.  ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA...
COOLER...MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF DETROIT.

..KERR.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

42408951 42928798 42728677 42538589 42278442 42418333
41828259 41178374 40928593 40728773 40478925 40628996
41538931 

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