[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jul 18 02:00:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180158 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607...

VALID 180158Z - 180300Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW...ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03Z.  HOWEVER...IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT WW 607 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.

AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES SHIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING
EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE WEAKENING OF WINDS
IN LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH JETLET MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE VICINITY OF WEAK
SURFACE LOW WEST OF KIRKSVILLE.  WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY
TO STALL EAST OF ST. JOSEPH/NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY...BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN AT LEAST
ISOLATED INTENSE CELL WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.  BEYOND 03-04Z...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AS INHIBITION GRADUALLY INCREASES FOR COOLING
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS.

..KERR.. 07/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

40019410 40389333 40639240 40269144 39659155 39459292
39489415 39829422 

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