[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 172223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172222 
CAZ000-180045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MTNS/HIGH DESERT OF SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172222Z - 180045Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV MOVING WWD OVER SERN CA. DESPITE
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MCV...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 90S ABOVE 4000
FT...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S PER RAWS DATA. MODIFIED RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF MLCINH IN THE MTNS AND
AROUND 50 J/KG OF MLCINH IN THE HIGH DESERT. RECENT VWP DATA SHOWING
30-35 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV. COMBINED
WITH WEAK WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AROUND 40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR
EXISTS TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ROTATION. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY SUPPORT STG-SVR ELY WIND GUST GUSTS THAT WILL
EXACERBATE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. WITH A SLIGHTLY
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF THE COASTAL MTNS...IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE HIGH DESERT WITH APPROACH OF MCV BUT AGAIN
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

34051647 34401657 35251722 35241814 34881850 34581848
33951774 33271684 32781662 32751627 33391627 

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