[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 17 08:49:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170847 
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-171015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN...NRN WI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170847Z - 171015Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ARROWHEAD
OF MN...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH A DRY SLOT ADVANCING EWD
ACROSS NRN MN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT AND OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES EWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...HOWEVER
SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THE CAP WHICH IS
FUELING THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
RANGE FROM ABOUT 30 TO 40 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9.0
C/KM. THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STORM
COVERAGE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 07/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

46298929 46359255 46729377 47549385 47989314 47989116
47678842 46598824 

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