[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 132301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132300 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132300Z - 140100Z

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVE ACROSS ERN KS
AND NRN/WRN MO.  THIS INCLUDES THE KSTJ AND KMCI METRO AREAS.  LARGE
HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.  A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
AREAS S AND E OF WS 597/598.

CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED VCNTY KOMA DURING THE MID-
AFTN HAS EXPANDED AND A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED. LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FORWARD
PROPAGATION LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS ERN KS AND
NRN/WRN MO.  

22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT SEWD FROM THE TSTM COMPLEX SEWD
INTO NERN MO.  SW OF THIS FRONT...AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY
WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO
3500 J PER KG...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER.  AFTN RAOBS SUGGESTED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN
INCREASING FLOW IN THE 4-6KM LAYER NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN
NEB...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS IS LIKELY. 


CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG SWRN FLANKS OF THE COLD POOL...CONTRIBUTING TO AN
OVERALL MCS MOTION TO THE SSE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST
DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH NRN/WRN MO AND ERN KS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SERN KS AND PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AFTER 01-02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 07/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

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40059753 

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