[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 132040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132040 
KSZ000-NEZ000-132245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132040Z - 132245Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NEB INTO
NWRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NEB NEAR O'NEILL
SWWD TO NEAR IMPERIAL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB
NEAR MCCOOK INTO NWRN KS. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
ERN NEB SWWD TO NEAR LEXINGTON. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS FOCI
FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE CAP WEAKENS. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS S AND SE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
INCREASING OVER SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK...BUT WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 KM.
HOWEVER..PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS
INCREASED...RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND DEVELOP SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING.

..DIAL.. 07/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

40340031 40529939 40399681 39259674 39060018 

WWWW