[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jul 13 15:19:40 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131518 
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-131715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...NERN TN...SRN WV THROUGH S CNTRL AND SRN
VA AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131518Z - 131715Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BY
17Z-18Z.

A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDS FROM NERN TN...THROUGH ERN
KY...SRN WV AND SRN VA. S AND SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG HEATING
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WILL SERVE AS FOCI
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
MOVING EWD THROUGH KY MAY ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND 25 TO 30 KT WLY FLOW AROUND 2 KM
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS AS STORMS INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 07/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

36268085 35798276 36128359 37328295 38118123 37807865
37607745 36377795 

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