[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 12 22:17:26 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122216 
ARZ000-OKZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 122216Z - 130015Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL EXIST THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK
INTO WESTERN AR. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ON FRINGE OF REMNANT NORTH CENTRAL OK MCV...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ROUGHLY
ORIENTED WEST-EAST FROM NEAR ADA/MCALESTER OK TO NEAR FORT
SMITH/RUSSELVILLE AR. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY
CAPPED...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS.
STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR /ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN ADA-MCALESTER AS OF 22Z/...AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPSWING IN
THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-EAST BOUNDARY. ASIDE FROM
PULSE-TYPE MICROBURST/HAIL POTENTIAL...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/TRAINING
STORM MOTIONS IN PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES WILL FAVOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

..GUYER.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34069703 34989694 35469555 35909313 36049235 35669201
35069226 34629356 34279490 33999579 

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