[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122129 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122129Z - 122330Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL /IN ADDITION TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ WILL EXIST FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE. THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED AS TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER
/ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CLOVIS NM TO NORTH OF HOBBS NM/...WITH ADDITIONAL
CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
AMIDST A CORRIDOR OF MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE /IN WAKE OF EARLIER
MCV/. WITHIN THIS AREA...MLCAPES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CINH. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS/ AND HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/HAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

33500160 32690224 32680309 34350323 35090224 36150004
35099979 34510062 

WWWW