[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 12 20:50:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122049 
NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-122145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA / NRN NJ / SERN NY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 593...

VALID 122049Z - 122145Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY ERN
PORTIONS OF WW AREA.

SUPERCELL WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO OVER WESTCHESTER COUNTY
IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN FAIRFIELD COUNTY MOVING INTO THE LONG ISLAND
SOUND. OTHER LESS ORGANIZED STORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER NRN NJ
AND FAR ERN PA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MSV TO NEAR TTN.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND
ALBANY/UPTON VWPS INDICATE THAT MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT WHERE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE REMAINED MORE SLY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

ADDITIONALLY...A W-E ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXISTS ACROSS NRN NJ FROM E OF ABE EWD TO NEAR EWR.  THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO FAR NRN NJ/FAR SERN
NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM
SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2.  TO THE W OF THIS N-S ORIENTED WIND SHIFT...IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED TO SOME DEGREE. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS COULD
RE-DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

40387661 42117568 42297429 42107320 41087319 40127444
39807566 

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