[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122018 
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT/FAR NORTHEAST
ID/NORTHWEST WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122018Z - 122215Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
FROM SOUTHWEST MT/FAR EASTERN ID INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT/NORTHWEST WY.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ID/FAR WESTERN MT PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ID/FAR SOUTHWEST
MT. AS STORMS FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS /AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/INVERTED-V PROFILES. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO
PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

45831223 47471078 47270865 46080748 44380864 43301102
43591200 45031236 

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