[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121949 
NDZ000-SDZ000-122145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121949Z - 122145Z

ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH /MAINLY ACROSS ND/.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN ND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TOWERING CU/INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN ND /NEAR LAKE
SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWEST OF MINOT/...INTO FAR WESTERN SD BETWEEN BUFFAL0
AND RAPID CITY AS OF 1945Z. AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER
100S. ALTHOUGH MORNING RAOBS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPRESENTATIVE
OF MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES...RUC SOUNDINGS/MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LIMITED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESSES...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS AROUND 25-30 KTS.
ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION MAY REMAIN LIMITED...HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

44130216 44190331 45600384 47830341 48400288 48670225
48780127 48500001 46870068 44680111 44160185 

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