[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jul 12 17:57:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 121756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121756 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-121930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / MD / NRN VA / INTO DE AND SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121756Z - 121930Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AIR MASS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS BECOME HOT AND QUITE MOIST THIS
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL MD ACROSS NRN VA INTO FAR ERN WV. 
REGIONAL VWPS SHOW THAT THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXIST
ACROSS OH / PA INTO NRN NJ WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA.  THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPING TSTMS TO REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED...HOWEVER IF
IT BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SYSTEM CAN
DEVELOP...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED.

..MEAD.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

38098008 39127981 39697882 39907717 40087577 40137515
39487467 38817504 38077554 37927733 37627955 

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