[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121738 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-121915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH INTO SWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121738Z - 121915Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SMALL MCV TRANSLATING EWD
THROUGH SERN OH.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO SWRN PA. 
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
MOREOVER...CURRENT PITTSBURG VWP INDICATES MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2/.  THIS SOURCE OF STREAMWISE
VORTICITY COUPLED WITH VERTICAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

THIS ANTICIPATED THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BOTH
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 07/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

39898184 40528158 40868069 40997973 40777890 40187886
39497967 39288054 39318155 

WWWW