[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 3 23:58:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 032359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032358 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...IA...ERN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...580...

VALID 032358Z - 040130Z

COLD FRONT ARCING FROM UPPER MI ACROSS CNTRL WI AND INTO NCNTRL IA
ATTM WILL CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE FRONT OVER UPPER MI AND NERN WI...NEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
FORMED ON THE FRONT FROM WCNTRL WI...ACROSS EXTREME SERN MN...AND
OVER NCNTRL IA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD
SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS LOCALLY
MERGING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.

SITUATION ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 581...FROM SWRN IA ACROSS NRN
IL...REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF MCS DEBRIS/AND
OUTFLOW AIR MASS OVER WRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF IA...AND WEAK
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED WAVE NEAR THE MS RIVER. STORMS APPEAR
TO BE INCREASING NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT
INTO WRN IL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHEAR IS ALSO WEAKER ACROSS
THIS REGION SUGGESTING THAT WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS
WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL DOMINATE UNTIL STRONGER
FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41478758 40859498 43229499 44369026 45889018 46158655
43508748 

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