[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 3 20:22:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 032022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032022 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL EWD INTO CENTRAL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032022Z - 032145Z

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBTLE/GENERALLY E-W AXES OF
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH AND INDIANA. AFTERNOON
HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70 ARE RESULTING IN
AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
OH TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS W CENTRAL INDIANA ATTM.  CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SEVERAL OF THESE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AXES...WITH MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS W CENTRAL OH WHERE A
PAIR OF SUPERCELLS EXIST.  

THESE TWO OH STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL OH.  HOWEVER...ANY STORM
INITIATION FURTHER W SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE -- GIVEN FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS.

..GOSS.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

40288182 40788364 41028635 40078862 39298785 39138218 

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