[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jul 3 19:07:38 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031907 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/NCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031907Z - 032100Z

...STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CNTRL IA AND
ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH NCNTRL IL...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IA...WITH ELEVATED STORMS/CLOUDS ACROSS NRN
MO AND AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD SOUTH AND WEST OF DSM. WITHIN THE
LAST FEW MINUTES...A STORM HAS FORMED NEAR AUDUBON...AND IT APPEARS
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IMMINENT. ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THIS CLEAR ZONE
HAS DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. 

SLATER IA PROFILER SHOWS STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH AROUND
35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTRL IL...STORMS
HAVE LIKELY BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...18Z
SOUNDING FROM DAVENPORT IA SUGGESTS INHIBITION HAS ERODED...AND SFC
BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/SVR WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40219107 40059434 40379513 41689511 41799316 41858873
41538764 40498771 

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