[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031853 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-032030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN...CNTRL AND NRN WI...WRN UPR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031853Z - 032030Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN UPPER MI INTO
NORTHERN IA.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DESTABILIZE AIRMASS /MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG/.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL AID INITIATION/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS AND
ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS/. 
INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

44639336 45659131 46318986 45878755 44468896 43499162
43439455 43979475 

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