[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031734 
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-031930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA/PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031734Z - 031930Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SHENANDOAH AND BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS.  THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
DOWNSTREAM...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A SMALL-SCALE LINE
ACROSS WRN VA...MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 25 KT.  AREA VWPS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BUT ONLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.  NONETHELESS...
TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS S CENTRAL
AND SERN VA AND INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN NC...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  THIS IS RESULTING IN MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 1000
TO 1500 J/KG -- WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION STILL TO
OCCUR.

GIVEN DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...THE EVOLUTION OF AN
ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE.  DESPITE RELATIVELY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

..GOSS.. 07/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

38117862 37947767 37257603 36187592 35667617 35307791
36157943 37438085 

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