[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jul 2 20:57:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 022058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022057 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-022230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA AND WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022057Z - 022230Z

MONITORING PORTIONS OF NRN MO...SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO...JUST
SOUTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES A CLOUDY AREA TO THE NORTH
AND STRONG HEATING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAKLY
CAPPED. IN ANY EVENT..UNSURE HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL. QUESTION OF COVERAGE MAKES WATCH UNCERTAIN AS MODELS
SUGGEST BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER..IF STORMS APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

..IMY.. 07/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40899534 41389262 41169111 40519024 39649011 39109106
39309276 40039538 

WWWW