[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011913 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MT/NCNTRL THROUGH NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011913Z - 012115Z

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF MT THROUGH NCNTRL WY...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ID IMPULSE.
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM MT/WY INDICATE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF
RIVERTON/LANDER IS E/SELY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL.

..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

42610520 42950877 46340950 47880950 48760875 48940675
48730510 44660395 43060394 

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