[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 1 17:58:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011758 
MIZ000-WIZ000-012000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI/NRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011758Z - 012000Z

CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM NEAR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
WSWWD INTO FAR NWRN WI.  THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH BY 19-20Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN UPR MI INTO FAR NWRN WI NEAR THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX
MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND NWRN ONTARIO.  CLEARING SKIES IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER NERN WI/ERN UPR MI HAVE
ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80-85F RANGE ALONG AN
AXIS NEAR THE FRONT.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID
60S...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED 1000-1500 J/KG.  CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL ENHANCE
STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.

..WEISS.. 07/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

46049168 46568990 47098792 47078662 46458523 45888539
45218648 45088823 45019020 45089149 45669193 

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