[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jul 1 16:30:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011631 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-011900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ME/NRN NH/NRN VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011631Z - 011900Z

WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NRN ME SWWD
INTO NRN PARTS OF NH AND VT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.  WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE
NEEDED.

STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN QUEBEC IS ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.  ALTHOUGH DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO
-21C AT 500 MB/ ARE RESULTING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 60 KT
APPROACHING NRN ME IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH MAY INCREASE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN  NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONGER CELLS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE SUGGESTS WATCH WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY.

..WEISS.. 07/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

44597323 45067235 45297101 46057023 47166943 47346843
47066773 45996776 45286795 44496890 44037052 43897203
44047311 

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