From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 02:15:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2006 22:15:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010216 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... VALID 010216Z - 010245Z NEW WW FOR NERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD INTO MUCH OF MN IS VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM W-E IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SRN MOST STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND WERE MOVING ESE AND SHOULD ENTER PARTS OF NERN SD DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THUS...GIVEN THIS TREND AND EXISTENCE OF AN UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INCLUDING NERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE S OF WW 564 SUPPORTS THE DECISION FOR A NEW WW. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48229984 49009942 48989596 49299489 48579434 46439440 44699468 44659546 44579670 44589791 44719899 45199947 45779961 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 04:11:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 00:11:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010412 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...565... VALID 010412Z - 010545Z THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN WW/S 564 AND 565. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT WITHIN WW 565 SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM ROBERTS COUNTY SD TO TODD COUNTY MN. ASCENT AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ONGOING CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY NOW OVER ERN ND/NERN SD. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD IN MN PER 40-45 KT MOVEMENT OF BOW ECHO WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND INTO NWRN ROBERTS COUNTY SD. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REACH WRN MN COUNTIES OF OTTER TAIL...GRANT AND DOUGLAS BETWEEN 05-06Z. FARTHER N...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED IN INTENSITY...BUT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44559464 44449870 45449884 45939983 46369987 46569916 47309873 48319903 48749889 48969779 49299467 48229459 46149441 45089423 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 05:44:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 01:44:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010544 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN EXCEPT EXTREME SRN PORTION...PARTS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SWRN ALS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...565... VALID 010544Z - 010715Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS -- IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD NWRN WI THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z. SLIGHT SWD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BUT MOST SUSTAINED MOTION SHOULD BE EWD...GIVEN PROGGED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS MOTION VECTORS. ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE GRADUALLY...WITH EWD EXTENT...LEADING TO SLOW DECREASE IN SVR THREAT EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/ERN WI. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD POOL EVIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL STORM SCALE ASCENT...WHILE INFLOW LAYER WILL MOISTEN SLIGHTLY BASED ON RUC/WRF FCST MOIST ADVECTION AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSES AT 850-925 MB LEVELS UPSTREAM. THEREFORE MCS MIGHT SHIFT FARTHER E ACROSS WI THAN CURRENT ANALYSES OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY FIELDS INDICATE. MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG -- NOW EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MN -- WILL LESSEN TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL/ERN WI...BUT ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME OVER LATTER AREA UNTIL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY PASSES. MEANWHILE SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NERN ND/NWRN MN...AND WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING ATOP OUTFLOW-REINFORCED/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATTER TSTMS WILL PERSIST IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA...FROM ERN PORTIONS SD/ND BORDER INTO WRN MN. PORTIONS EXISTING WWS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL SCHEDULED 7Z EXPIRATION. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEHIND PRIMARY MCS IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME...HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF SVR THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46059964 46259834 47149760 48149821 48489856 48939722 48619438 47609231 46359027 45058989 44069109 44989779 45899970 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 07:50:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 03:50:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010751 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010750 MNZ000-WIZ000-010915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MN...NWRN WI...EXTREME WRN LS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566... VALID 010750Z - 010915Z REMAINS OF FORMERLY SVR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD 40-50 KT ACROSS AND OUT OF ERN PORTION WW AREA OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELEVATED TSTMS -- FORMING IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MCS OUTFLOW -- MAY PULSE BRIEFLY TO NEAR SVR LEVELS WITH HAIL. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY KEEPING MOST OF WW THROUGH SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. 60 KT GUST MEASURED AT BRD AT 631Z WITH LEADING MCS NOW APCHG DLH AREA. HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS BUOYANT PROFILE. SCATTERED TSTMS FARTHER N ACROSS ST LOUIS COUNTY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EWD OVER WRN/NRN ARROWHEAD REGION...INCLUDING BOUNDARY WATERS AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE NEAR SFC AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...PRIND ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED...EITHER OVER ARROWHEAD...LS OR NRN WI. ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 48519261 48599282 48439327 48359369 46249524 46189633 45919643 45529618 45429460 45689255 46719085 48048951 48038977 47978997 48099003 48099072 48259088 48079139 48079159 48209173 48269202 48379209 48279236 48459250 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 16:30:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 12:30:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011631 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-011900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ME/NRN NH/NRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011631Z - 011900Z WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NRN ME SWWD INTO NRN PARTS OF NH AND VT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE NEEDED. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN QUEBEC IS ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -21C AT 500 MB/ ARE RESULTING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 60 KT APPROACHING NRN ME IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY INCREASE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER CELLS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE SUGGESTS WATCH WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 44597323 45067235 45297101 46057023 47166943 47346843 47066773 45996776 45286795 44496890 44037052 43897203 44047311 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 17:58:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 13:58:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011758 MIZ000-WIZ000-012000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI/NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011758Z - 012000Z CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM NEAR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WSWWD INTO FAR NWRN WI. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH BY 19-20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN UPR MI INTO FAR NWRN WI NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND NWRN ONTARIO. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER NERN WI/ERN UPR MI HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80-85F RANGE ALONG AN AXIS NEAR THE FRONT. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED 1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46049168 46568990 47098792 47078662 46458523 45888539 45218648 45088823 45019020 45089149 45669193 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 19:13:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 15:13:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011913 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MT/NCNTRL THROUGH NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011913Z - 012115Z LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF MT THROUGH NCNTRL WY...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ID IMPULSE. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM MT/WY INDICATE MID LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF RIVERTON/LANDER IS E/SELY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 42610520 42950877 46340950 47880950 48760875 48940675 48730510 44660395 43060394 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 20:11:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 16:11:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012011 MIZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPR MI...NRN LOWER MI...NRN LAKE MI...NRN LAKE HURON CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012011Z - 012145Z A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER MI...AND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 567 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z EAST OF WW 567 COVERING THE REMAINDER OF ERN UPR MI...NRN LOWER MI...AND PARTS OF NRN LAKE MI AND NRN LAKE HURON. RADAR INDICATES THE STORMS ACROSS UPR MI HAVE DEVELOPED SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE LEWPS/BOW STRUCTURES INDICATING AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... 44288677 45248630 46298542 46588484 46518409 46208381 45488329 44608325 44188350 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 20:43:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 16:43:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012043 MIZ000-WIZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI...NRN/CENTRAL WI...NRN LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... VALID 012043Z - 012245Z STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING IN A BAND FROM ERN UPR MI SWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BAND FROM TAYLOR INTO OCONTO COUNTIES IN WI. THE STORM IN WRN OCONTO COUNTY HAS ACQUIRED SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS... WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. ALL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD INTO A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID/UPPER 60S/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STRONG 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI IS ENHANCING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE EWD 30-35 KT. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 44259011 44619074 45229086 45679023 46178807 46588667 46818540 46788492 45578590 44048688 43808729 44048939 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 21:23:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 17:23:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012123 IAZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012123Z - 012200Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL IA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN TO WRN IA. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OVER SRN MN INTO NRN IA SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...MODERATE SHEAR /SFC-6 KM 20-25 KT/ FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IA WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD... 42629503 43459432 43479143 42919114 41989136 41789312 41929492 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 21:44:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 17:44:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012144 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012144Z - 012315Z ...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED NEXT 1-2 HOURS... AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN FROM ERN WY THROUGH SW SD INTO CNTRL NEB AS TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MODIFIED 12Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING YIELDS AROUND 2300 J/KG MLCAPE. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM NORTH PLATTE NEB INDICATES ELY SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH AROUND 30-40 KT OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SFC FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SW NEB INTO NW IA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER IN DECATUR COUNTY...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE SITUATION. ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 40880425 41470677 44850648 45140225 44340157 43040137 41040230 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 23:35:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 19:35:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012335 WIZ000-ILZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012335Z - 020000Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG STORM OVER NERN IA /WINNESHIEK COUNTY/ WITH CURRENT MOVEMENT ENE INTO SWRN WI BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD INTO SWRN-NERN WI. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG/ WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED TO THE EAST OF WW 569 AND SOUTH OF WW 567. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43479114 44058971 44008773 42558786 42478915 42549052 43099081 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 00:32:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 20:32:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020032 WIZ000-ILZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...571... VALID 020032Z - 020200Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS NEWLY ISSUED WW 571. FARTHER N...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 02Z IN VALID PART OF WW 567 IN EAST CENTRAL WI AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES ESE OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI BETWEEN 02-03Z. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR /SINCE 2345Z/ FROM CENTRAL TO SWRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY FORMED ALONG AN EWD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ ACROSS SRN WI. ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SPREADS EWD. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42529039 43269046 43629099 43838989 44178921 44558844 44828737 44798674 43868712 43298708 42478704 42478950 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 00:40:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 20:40:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020041 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... VALID 020041Z - 020215Z ...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 570 CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HELPED INITIATE NEW STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY...A FEW MILES N/NW OF CHEYENNE. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS SE WY...THOUGH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LARAMIE MTNS MAY YIELD A BRIEF STRONG/SVR STORM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS ACROSS SW SD HAVE MERGED INTO A SMALL COMPLEX AND SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. 00Z SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE INDICATES ENVIRONMENT IS STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...SO IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL RIDE DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS NOT STRONG...BUT SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORMS THIS EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41070178 41130522 41420557 43490536 43890433 44070366 43710208 42300174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 01:02:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 21:02:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020102 MIZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 020102Z - 020200Z LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. DESPITE A FEW STRONG STORMS EARLIER ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...MOST OF THE STORMS THAT MOVED ESEWD ACROSS LAKE MI HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION...AIR MASS ACROSS LOWER MI HAS REMAINED AND CONTINUES TO BE MORE STABLE THAN THE AIR MASS TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN WI. THUS... GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY THE LOCAL WFO. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44818717 45028468 46328249 46268146 45268236 44218237 44048404 44148686 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 02:27:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 22:27:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020227 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-020330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI / WRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 020227Z - 020330Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 571. STORMS... POTENTIALLY SEVERE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN PART OF SRN LOWER MI. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DIMINISHING STORM INTENSITIES WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN WI WHICH APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A DECREASING TREND IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT 30 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...TWO STORMS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI APPROACHING MANISTEE/MASON COUNTIES IN SRN LOWER MI HAVE TENDED TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY. LESS AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW...BUT ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE CROSSING LAKE MI MAY REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE PER SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-50 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42809112 43968908 44208831 44258731 44248663 44258583 44218496 42858468 42298546 42479047 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 03:09:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 23:09:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020309 ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND CENTRAL/SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020309Z - 020445Z ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEB INTO CENTRAL/SRN IA...WITH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO SWRN IA TO JUST NORTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ /25 KT/ WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN OK INTO SRN-SERN NEB/SRN IA IS RESULTING IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IA AT THIS TIME. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /30-35 KT/...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40759977 41369985 41769968 42039853 42059737 42159606 42349445 42479333 42669229 42779120 42509065 42049058 41589168 41109425 40989564 40649769 40429959 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 20:57:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 16:57:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022057 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-022230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA AND WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022057Z - 022230Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF NRN MO...SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO...JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES A CLOUDY AREA TO THE NORTH AND STRONG HEATING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAKLY CAPPED. IN ANY EVENT..UNSURE HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL. QUESTION OF COVERAGE MAKES WATCH UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY. HOWEVER..IF STORMS APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED. ..IMY.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40899534 41389262 41169111 40519024 39649011 39109106 39309276 40039538 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 21:25:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 17:25:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022125 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-022330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ORE/SRN ID/NERN NV/NW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022125Z - 022330Z ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY SRN PORTIONS OF ID AND THE ERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM NRN CA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG/ WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE PLATEAU THROUGH MAGIC VALLEY AND NW UT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 35-40 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS. BACKED ELY WINDS WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...MFR... 40371503 42231971 43621944 43991671 43501472 42951219 41671212 40311347 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 22:29:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 18:29:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022229 NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...AZ/SRN CA/ERN NM/SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022229Z - 030030Z ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE NUMEROUS... SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS AFTN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND CHIRICAHUA MTNS OF SE AZ. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 30-35 KTS. WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT FROM REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR DATA JUST SW OF FLG TO AROUND 35 SSW OF SOW. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE REINFORCED BY NEW TSTMS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS AFTN. ADDITIONALLY STORMS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS AND ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS IN SRN CA...WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IS HIGHER IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH LATEST DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1400-2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 31240914 31631221 33401677 35141640 36491522 36951119 35830923 35060850 32710855 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 22:43:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 18:43:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022243 NYZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN CT...SRN VT...WRN MA...PA...NJ...MD...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...573... VALID 022243Z - 030015Z LINEAR TSTM COMPLEX HAS PRODUCED AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ARCING FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SWWD ACROSS NRN NJ/SERN PA. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF INTENSE ACTIVITY INITIATED EARLIER NEAR LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DC AREA. EXPECT COMPLEX ACROSS ERN PA AND NRN NJ TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO INSTABILITY AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS. MORE ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY EWD TO SWRN VT. WHILE THESE STORMS EXIST IN AN UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME. BOTH WATCH 572 AND 573 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FORM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39897376 38967874 40517902 41207741 42807550 43517304 43067235 42367299 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 23:49:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 19:49:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022348 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...MA...ME...NH...RI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575... VALID 022348Z - 030115Z TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND SUB-SEVERE ACROSS WATCH 575 SO FAR. STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND APPROACHING FRONT HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO NRN ME AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATED THAT INSTABILITY AXIS WAS SITUATED FROM MA/SRN NH NEWD INTO WRN ME AND COULD STILL FUEL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 575 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALSO HINDER ROBUST TSTM DEVELOP. THEREFORE... PORTIONS OF WATCH 575 ARE LIKELY TO BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 41697072 41697365 45077177 45046923 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 00:48:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 20:48:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030048 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-030215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574... VALID 030048Z - 030215Z ...SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SD AND WY. ISOLD SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS NEB PANHANDLE... SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ACROSS SW SD...INCLUDING RECENT STORM OVER SHANNON COUNTY. THIS STORM PRODUCED A 42 KT WIND GUST AT PINE RIDGE /KIEN/ OVER AN HOUR AGO...AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS JUST EAST OF KIEN WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ACROSS SHANNON COUNTY. SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS SD HAS DIMINISHED AS MOST STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES IN NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL BASED ON 00Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING...SO WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FARTHER EAST. EXTRAPOLATION FROM LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS REMAINING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF WW 574...MAINLY THE NEB PANHANDLE. THERE ARE ALSO STRONG STORMS IN NERN CO THAT POSE AN ISOLD SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THAT REGION. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40210193 40020371 41470378 43190265 43750110 43750033 43309986 42249997 41220031 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 02:59:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 22:59:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030259 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...IL...IND...OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030259Z - 030530Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE... WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A STRONG WIND GUST...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AND ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONGEST ACTIVITY AT PRESENT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS ECNTRL IL...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS FORMING OVER PARTS OF NWRN IND. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENCE/RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS. FARTHER WEST...ACROSS IA...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY SUBSIDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED/WEAK CELLS NORTH AND EAST OF DSM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED ASCENT. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 40508128 40058202 39698460 39768830 41049370 41539349 41979243 41028697 40878280 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 11:42:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 07:42:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031142 LAZ000-TXZ000-031445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX AND EXTREME SWRN LA. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031142Z - 031445Z HAZARD FROM HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER PORTIONS GALVESTON/CHAMBERS/LIBERTY COUNTIES...SHIFTING/EXPANDING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS SAN JACINTO/HARDIN/POLK/TYLER COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL 3 INCH/HOUR RATES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST CORES. MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES ALSO WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ISOLATED RATES TO AROUND 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED EWD TOWARD SABINE RIVER. AS OF 1125Z...TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SWRN CORNER GALVESTON COUNTY SSWWD TO AROUND 55 SE PSX...AND TO SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE IN A SEPARATE CLUSTER FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY NWWD THROUGH LIBERTY COUNTY. ALL THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS AREAS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING GLS BAY AND FROM NRN SHORE OF BAY NEARLY TO LFK...AND EWD TO SABINE RIVER AREA BETWEEN BPT-LCH. PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS IS BUILDING IN ZONE OF VERY WEAK CAPPING INVOF SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS AND INVERTED TROUGH NOW ANALYZED FROM LIBERTY COUNTY SSWWD TO NEAR BUOY 42019...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND INLAND. ALREADY VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME EXTREMELY SO WITH TIME...AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN TSTMS. ANALYSIS OF GPS DERIVED MOISTURE DATA BETWEEN GLS-LCH INDICATES ONSHORE PW VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER VALUES LIKELY OFFSHORE BASED ON SFC BUOY DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG FROM GLS BAY SWD OVER GULF AND EWD TO VICINITY BPT. DEPTH OF SUPERFREEZING LAYER -- ALMOST TO 500 MB FOR HIGHEST-THETAE LIFTED PARCEL -- AND LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM-CLOUD BUOYANCY ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATION. ..EDWARDS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28759533 29399505 29899494 30519512 30929503 31049447 30929389 30499361 30069356 29709373 29629392 29449436 28909482 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 15:38:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 11:38:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031538 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NY/PA/NRN NJ/CT/RI/MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031538Z - 031745Z SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING WITHIN AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS SRN NY AND PARTS OF NRN PA. CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF AGITATION...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE CATSKILLS...WHERE TCU ARE DEVELOPING. DESPITE THE LACK OF A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH TIME WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE AIRMASS. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WNWLY FLOW...WHICH INCREASES WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 40 KT AT MID LEVELS -- SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION. THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS INDICATED -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SMALL-SCALE LINES. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 44027618 43657517 42417100 41547091 40487250 40057819 40387978 41158007 42867870 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 17:34:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 13:34:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031734 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-031930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA/PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031734Z - 031930Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SHENANDOAH AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING DOWNSTREAM...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A SMALL-SCALE LINE ACROSS WRN VA...MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 25 KT. AREA VWPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...BUT ONLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. NONETHELESS... TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN VA AND INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN NC...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS IS RESULTING IN MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG -- WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION STILL TO OCCUR. GIVEN DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE IN THIS SCENARIO. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38117862 37947767 37257603 36187592 35667617 35307791 36157943 37438085 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 18:53:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 14:53:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031853 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN...CNTRL AND NRN WI...WRN UPR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031853Z - 032030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN IA. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DESTABILIZE AIRMASS /MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL AID INITIATION/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS AND ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS/. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44639336 45659131 46318986 45878755 44468896 43499162 43439455 43979475 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 19:07:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 15:07:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031907 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/NCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031907Z - 032100Z ...STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CNTRL IA AND ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH NCNTRL IL... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IA...WITH ELEVATED STORMS/CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MO AND AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD SOUTH AND WEST OF DSM. WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES...A STORM HAS FORMED NEAR AUDUBON...AND IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IMMINENT. ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THIS CLEAR ZONE HAS DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. SLATER IA PROFILER SHOWS STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH AROUND 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTRL IL...STORMS HAVE LIKELY BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDING FROM DAVENPORT IA SUGGESTS INHIBITION HAS ERODED...AND SFC BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/SVR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40219107 40059434 40379513 41689511 41799316 41858873 41538764 40498771 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 20:22:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 16:22:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032022 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL EWD INTO CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032022Z - 032145Z AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBTLE/GENERALLY E-W AXES OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH AND INDIANA. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70 ARE RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL OH TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS W CENTRAL INDIANA ATTM. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SEVERAL OF THESE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXES...WITH MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS W CENTRAL OH WHERE A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS EXIST. THESE TWO OH STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL OH. HOWEVER...ANY STORM INITIATION FURTHER W SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE -- GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40288182 40788364 41028635 40078862 39298785 39138218 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 20:55:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 16:55:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032054 NCZ000-VAZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 032054Z - 032230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN VA -- WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT EXPANDING SEWD AHEAD OF STORMS. CONVECTION HAS NOT ORGANIZED/INTENSIFIED AS ANTICIPATED...THOUGH STORMS ARE NOW APPROACHING AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE INTO THIS MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...OVERALL LACK OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 37597756 37497708 36497563 35057686 35737844 36417902 36757831 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 21:04:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 17:04:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032104 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NY/NERN PA/SRN VT/WRN MA/CT/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577... VALID 032104Z - 032230Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND MAY SPREAD E OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NRN NY. MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NY AND VICINITY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ATTM. STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH SEVERAL RECENT STORM SPLITS NOTED. ALONG WITH ONGOING HAIL/WIND THREAT ACROSS WW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. WITH NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN NY E OF LAKE ONTARIO...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 45147506 44917395 43437341 42647225 41007238 41017446 41417711 43437719 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 22:03:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 18:03:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032202 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MT/MUCH OF WY/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032202Z - 040000Z ...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MANY STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER MT THIS AFTN...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 35 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS MT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. ACROSS WY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...INSTABILITY IS GREATER. LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW/MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LATEST BILLINGS RADAR INDICATING SUPERCELLS FORMING ACROSS STILLWATER AND SWEET GRASS COUNTIES WEST OF BIL. ISOLD LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 41720545 42260770 42890903 45081143 45891226 46931073 47110882 46750666 46220505 45170300 43020239 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 23:58:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 19:58:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032358 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...IA...ERN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...580... VALID 032358Z - 040130Z COLD FRONT ARCING FROM UPPER MI ACROSS CNTRL WI AND INTO NCNTRL IA ATTM WILL CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER UPPER MI AND NERN WI...NEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ON THE FRONT FROM WCNTRL WI...ACROSS EXTREME SERN MN...AND OVER NCNTRL IA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS LOCALLY MERGING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. SITUATION ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 581...FROM SWRN IA ACROSS NRN IL...REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF MCS DEBRIS/AND OUTFLOW AIR MASS OVER WRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF IA...AND WEAK FRONTAL/CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED WAVE NEAR THE MS RIVER. STORMS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO WRN IL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHEAR IS ALSO WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTING THAT WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL DOMINATE UNTIL STRONGER FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41478758 40859498 43229499 44369026 45889018 46158655 43508748 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 4 00:33:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 20:33:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040034 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 040034Z - 040200Z BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS WRN PORTION OF WW 581 AND EXTENDS FROM SW OF VPZ TO BMI. GUSTS TO NEAR 50KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT WHILE MOVING INTO NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AIR MASS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN IL TO WRN OH WAS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. DESPITE SOME DIURNAL COOLING...RELATIVELY STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES NOTED ON ILX SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ENEWD ATOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY MAINTAIN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS. ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM ERN IND ACROSS WRN OH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OH RIVER TOWARD WV. OUTFLOW REINFORCED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THESE AREAS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 39618250 40158927 41708860 41718545 41468472 41498337 41168258 40528254 40568215 39908216 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 4 03:34:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 23:34:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040335 MIZ000-040530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040335Z - 040530Z CHANCE FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO SMALL FOR A WATCH. STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI OFF LAKE MI AT ABOUT 30KT. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WAS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI TO MAINTAIN STOUT STORM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. FURTHERMORE... CLOUD-BEARING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40KT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORM SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. CORRIDOR OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE APPEARS TO BE FROM LDM AREA EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NCNTRL PORTION OF LOWER MI...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE THUMB AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF A LONGER-LIVED AND LARGER SCALE BOW ECHO/WIND THREAT DOES EVOLVE...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43688265 43218473 42968630 43158716 43658698 44258583 44438501 44508351 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 14:43:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 10:43:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101442 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO ERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101442Z - 101615Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S THIS MORNING ACROSS OH INTO WRN PARTS OF PA/NY...SUPPORTING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG. TSTMS ONGOING ALONG THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NRN OH INTO WRN PA/NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ WILL EXIST OVER ERN OH INTO WRN PA. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40368292 40878279 41698133 42108015 43117889 43397833 43397764 43157722 42177731 40987881 40457995 40038121 39878251 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 14:59:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 10:59:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101459 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-101630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101459Z - 101630Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM JUST E OF MWN TO APPROXIMATELY 65 NNW BGR. 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH VT/NH. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 45866780 45216788 44566958 43917117 44107172 44597168 45137109 45916957 46286874 46406820 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 18:30:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 14:30:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101829 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 101829Z - 102100Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SVR MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN MO. MEANWHILE...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN A BIT AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS CELLS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. FARTHER S...ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED WITH SCATTERED STORMS FORMING WITHIN HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING MECHANISM IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WITH PULSE TO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. CURRENT GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND WEAK WIND PROFILES SUPPORT BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN. ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN... 36719260 35779327 34899547 33499766 33359875 33479921 34109933 35849866 36939829 37779784 38059547 37969371 37689261 37079252 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 19:48:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 15:48:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101948 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-102045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... VALID 101948Z - 102045Z THROUGH 22Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS FROM NERN PA /20 NE OF FKL/ TO NEAR FDY IN NWRN OH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS LINE WAS LOCATED OVER RICHLAND...ASHLAND AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN OH WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 330/15 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP PLOTS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-40 KTS AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO. RESULTING WIND PROFILES ARE INDICATIVE OF A MARGINAL SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INDEED...PERIODIC MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER NERN OH INTO NWRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATION OF MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE INDICATES LEADING EDGE WILL MOVE S OF WW 590 BY 2130-2200Z. SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN... 40368316 40638262 40808176 40968091 41098044 40678026 40258036 40038163 39938273 39998307 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 19:59:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 15:59:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101958 MTZ000-IDZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101958Z - 102230Z A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ERN WA INTO WRN MT. COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH STORMS NOW EVOLVING FROM NRN ID INTO NWRN MT. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH 35-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG LIVED CELLS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY REACH 1.50" DIAMETER WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX... 48951696 48971015 47540951 46481059 46331292 46401481 46821550 48031650 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 21:54:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 17:54:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102154 OKZ000-TXZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN OK / FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102154Z - 110000Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAVE LEFT COOL OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY HOT />100F/ OVER SWRN OK...WITH ABOUT 1.75 IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DCAPE ~1000 J/KG IS PRESENT ACROSS SWRN OK. SLY FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A FLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR EVEN ATOP COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL OK. ALSO...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH MEAN WINDS TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EWD. THEREFORE...THE THREAT REMAINS FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS ALONG THE I-40/I-44 CORRIDORS. ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA... 35360101 36309960 36449869 36629781 36469713 36099718 35829780 35219743 34999667 34609624 33949640 33859687 34179795 34629917 35000063 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 11 01:28:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 21:28:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110127 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 110127Z - 110400Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL OK...BUT MERGING OUTFLOWS/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DIMINISH HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR TONIGHT. A STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WHILE ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION... STRETCHED FROM WEST OF TUL SWWD TO OKC AND LTS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE TX PANHANDLE...LIFTING SLOWLY EWD...WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET FROM SWRN OK NEWD INTO SWRN MO BY MID EVENING. THE MOIST AIR MASS BEING LIFTED ABOVE THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. ..IMY.. 07/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36169364 34959619 35169703 36159774 37309621 37949498 37959383 37429352 36999336 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 15:56:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 11:56:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121555 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA / NJ / SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121555Z - 121730Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS LATE THIS MORNING OWING TO ONGOING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE SE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NEAR AVP TO S OF POU HAS STARTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS OVER UPSTATE NY. MEANWHILE TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER ERN PA AND NJ WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S. WHEN COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /70-75 F DEWPOINTS/ AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CAP. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARING TO EXIST ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN PA INTO SERN NY. HERE...LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BOTH DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL TEND TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT OVER ERN PA AND NJ...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39887722 40877695 41587644 41967596 42117535 41987445 41707376 41057362 39877408 39407482 39297646 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 16:52:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 12:52:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121652 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF KY / TN INTO ERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121652Z - 121815Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR OWB TO W OF MEM WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER CNTRL AR /MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SIMILAR INSTABILITY EWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV/S OVER E-CNTRL MO AND N-CNTRL AR SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN AR INTO NWRN MS...AND OVER WRN PARTS OF KY AND TN. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND LESS THAN 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL. STILL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...OWING TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34149288 34809241 36208998 37978730 38078664 37638609 36948621 36108704 34688942 33829093 33669222 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 17:40:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 13:40:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121738 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH INTO SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121738Z - 121915Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SMALL MCV TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH SERN OH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO SWRN PA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT PITTSBURG VWP INDICATES MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2/. THIS SOURCE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY COUPLED WITH VERTICAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ANTICIPATED THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 39898184 40528158 40868069 40997973 40777890 40187886 39497967 39288054 39318155 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 17:57:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 13:57:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121756 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / MD / NRN VA / INTO DE AND SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121756Z - 121930Z THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIR MASS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS BECOME HOT AND QUITE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL MD ACROSS NRN VA INTO FAR ERN WV. REGIONAL VWPS SHOW THAT THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXIST ACROSS OH / PA INTO NRN NJ WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS TO REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED...HOWEVER IF IT BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38098008 39127981 39697882 39907717 40087577 40137515 39487467 38817504 38077554 37927733 37627955 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 18:14:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 14:14:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121813 WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-121945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SRN OH AND WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121813Z - 121945Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NEAR LEX TO BWG WITH ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED OVER NERN KY INTO SRN OH. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER KY INTO WV HAS BECOME RELATIVELY HOT AND MOIST...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. AOA -6 C 500 MB/ ARE LIKELY LIMITED INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/. DESPITE THIS WEAK INSTABILITY...CURRENT LOUISVILLE VWP SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL...SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING OR LEWP LINE STRUCTURE. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 36778657 38058538 38768396 39048241 38908159 38248128 37538144 36698378 36618618 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 18:34:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 14:34:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121833 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121833Z - 121930Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1825Z...UPTON NY RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND /20 WSW GON/ WITH A MOTION OF 265/20 KTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AMBIENT AIR MASS FROM LONG ISLAND NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. ASSOCIATED UPTON NY VWP INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 30-40 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SMALL-DIAMETER SUPERCELL STORMS TO PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41007356 41507351 41777315 41827194 41827112 41197130 40997275 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 19:28:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 15:28:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121927 KSZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121927Z - 122100Z THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE OVER ELLIS...HODGEMAN AND EDWARDS COUNTIES IN WRN KS. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR SWRN KS. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER THE STEEP LOW-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37749968 38910077 39580088 39880003 39569908 38769831 37989842 37579884 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 19:51:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 15:51:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121949 NDZ000-SDZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121949Z - 122145Z ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH /MAINLY ACROSS ND/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN ND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU/INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN ND /NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWEST OF MINOT/...INTO FAR WESTERN SD BETWEEN BUFFAL0 AND RAPID CITY AS OF 1945Z. AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER 100S. ALTHOUGH MORNING RAOBS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES...RUC SOUNDINGS/MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LIMITED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESSES...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS AROUND 25-30 KTS. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION MAY REMAIN LIMITED...HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44130216 44190331 45600384 47830341 48400288 48670225 48780127 48500001 46870068 44680111 44160185 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 20:19:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 16:19:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122018 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT/FAR NORTHEAST ID/NORTHWEST WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122018Z - 122215Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST MT/FAR EASTERN ID INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT/NORTHWEST WY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ID/FAR WESTERN MT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ID/FAR SOUTHWEST MT. AS STORMS FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS /AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/ WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/INVERTED-V PROFILES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 45831223 47471078 47270865 46080748 44380864 43301102 43591200 45031236 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 20:50:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 16:50:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122049 NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA / NRN NJ / SERN NY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 593... VALID 122049Z - 122145Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. SUPERCELL WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO OVER WESTCHESTER COUNTY IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN FAIRFIELD COUNTY MOVING INTO THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. OTHER LESS ORGANIZED STORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER NRN NJ AND FAR ERN PA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MSV TO NEAR TTN. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND ALBANY/UPTON VWPS INDICATE THAT MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED MORE SLY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...A W-E ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS NRN NJ FROM E OF ABE EWD TO NEAR EWR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO FAR NRN NJ/FAR SERN NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. TO THE W OF THIS N-S ORIENTED WIND SHIFT...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40387661 42117568 42297429 42107320 41087319 40127444 39807566 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 21:29:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 17:29:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122129 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122129Z - 122330Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL /IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ WILL EXIST FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED AS TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER /ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CLOVIS NM TO NORTH OF HOBBS NM/...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AMIDST A CORRIDOR OF MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE /IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCV/. WITHIN THIS AREA...MLCAPES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS/ AND HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33500160 32690224 32680309 34350323 35090224 36150004 35099979 34510062 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 22:17:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 18:17:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122216 ARZ000-OKZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 122216Z - 130015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ON FRINGE OF REMNANT NORTH CENTRAL OK MCV...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ROUGHLY ORIENTED WEST-EAST FROM NEAR ADA/MCALESTER OK TO NEAR FORT SMITH/RUSSELVILLE AR. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR /ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ADA-MCALESTER AS OF 22Z/...AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPSWING IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-EAST BOUNDARY. ASIDE FROM PULSE-TYPE MICROBURST/HAIL POTENTIAL...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/TRAINING STORM MOTIONS IN PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES WILL FAVOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34069703 34989694 35469555 35909313 36049235 35669201 35069226 34629356 34279490 33999579 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 23:56:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:56:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122355 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... VALID 122355Z - 130100Z REMAINING PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z. EARLIER BAND OF TSTMS...INCLUDING AN ISOLD SUPERCELL...THAT PROMPTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 HAS MOVED EWD AND DIMINISHED OVER LONG ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. RENEWED STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL PA ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/VCNTY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE EARLY THIS EVENING AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN PA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE AUGMENTED BY A WEAK MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING CNTRL PA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GIVEN SUNSET...TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVE. BUT...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS ECNTRL/SERN PA. STATE COLLEGE VWP SHOWS ABOUT 30 KTS OF FLOW IN THE FIRST FEW GATES ABOVE GROUND. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER. ..RACY.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40107687 41397619 41997486 41907368 40417443 39867600 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:05:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:05:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130204 MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130204Z - 130330Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:06:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:06:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130205 COR MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130205Z - 130330Z CORRECTED FOR LAST SENTENCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:07:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:07:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130204 MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130204Z - 130330Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:08:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:08:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130205 COR MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130205Z - 130330Z CORRECTED FOR LAST SENTENCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 15:19:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 11:19:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131519 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131518 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-131715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...NERN TN...SRN WV THROUGH S CNTRL AND SRN VA AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131518Z - 131715Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BY 17Z-18Z. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDS FROM NERN TN...THROUGH ERN KY...SRN WV AND SRN VA. S AND SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING EWD THROUGH KY MAY ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND 25 TO 30 KT WLY FLOW AROUND 2 KM SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS AS STORMS INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36268085 35798276 36128359 37328295 38118123 37807865 37607745 36377795 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 16:48:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 12:48:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131647 IAZ000-NEZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-131845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB THROUGH EXTREME NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131647Z - 131845Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED OVER SERN SD THROUGH ERN NEB IS INCREASING. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH SWRN NEB. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F HAS ADVECTED NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG FROM ERN NEB INTO ERN SD. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CNTRL NEB NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. MORNING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RUC RAOB DATA SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE SEWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41209634 40599759 41299941 43059880 44509825 44429684 42919605 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 17:58:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 13:58:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131757 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131757Z - 132000Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. LIKELY BEING AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MDT-TOWERING CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG A GENERAL NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MO. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED BOTH NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MO...AND ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AS OF 1745Z. INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH AN OVERALL UPSWING IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE MODIFIED 12Z DAVENPORT RAOB SUGGEST THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MLCAPES ARE ALREADY ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH 3000 J/KG OR GREATER POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER SHORT TERM RUC GUIDANCE. WINCHESTER IL PROFILER AND DAVENPORT/ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF MODEST WIND PROFILES...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER PULSE/ISOLATED IN NATURE. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41099332 41719232 40848997 38868900 37708986 38209113 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 18:52:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 14:52:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131851 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-132045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131851Z - 132045Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED BY 20Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD A FAIRLY MOIST/PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...OVERCOMING REMAINING SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE. INTERSPERSED BETWEEN HIGHER CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN...WITH ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN. SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z ABERDEEN RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...SUGGESTING MULTICELL CLUSTERS/FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47879766 48919707 48719482 45919459 44749504 44849660 44959734 46599766 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 19:54:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 15:54:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131953 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA...NRN MO AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131953Z - 132100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SERN NEB...NERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL IA AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN NEB NEWD THROUGH NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE SE OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG. THE 18Z SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39699219 39349505 40779661 41459573 42349509 42059341 40519184 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 20:41:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 16:41:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132040 KSZ000-NEZ000-132245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132040Z - 132245Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NEB INTO NWRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NEB NEAR O'NEILL SWWD TO NEAR IMPERIAL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB NEAR MCCOOK INTO NWRN KS. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB SWWD TO NEAR LEXINGTON. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE CAP WEAKENS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS S AND SE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...BUT WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 KM. HOWEVER..PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED...RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND DEVELOP SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40340031 40529939 40399681 39259674 39060018 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 21:32:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 17:32:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132131 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST TN/FAR SOUTHERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 132131Z - 132300Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL /ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA/FAR NORTHERN NC. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG/OFF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...FOCUSED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHERN VA ALONG A WEST-EAST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY -- 2000 J/KG MLCAPE OR GREATER -- IN PLACE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST/TRAINING STORM MOTIONS IN A RELATIVELY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... 37358102 37488018 37577759 37047636 36307600 36097748 36237928 35938216 36798203 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 22:29:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 18:29:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132227 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD/FAR EASTERN ND AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 132227Z - 140000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 596 ACROSS MN. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/FEW SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF WW 596. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF EXISTING EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN STORMS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FURTHER EAST...STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN /BETWEEN BEMIDJI-HIBBING/ SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN UPON ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH EAST OF WW 596 THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 48509723 48719549 48449376 47779263 45729355 44709429 44729596 44849725 46759727 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 23:01:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 19:01:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132300 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132300Z - 140100Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVE ACROSS ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO. THIS INCLUDES THE KSTJ AND KMCI METRO AREAS. LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREAS S AND E OF WS 597/598. CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED VCNTY KOMA DURING THE MID- AFTN HAS EXPANDED AND A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED. LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FORWARD PROPAGATION LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO. 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT SEWD FROM THE TSTM COMPLEX SEWD INTO NERN MO. SW OF THIS FRONT...AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO 3500 J PER KG...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER. AFTN RAOBS SUGGESTED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN INCREASING FLOW IN THE 4-6KM LAYER NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN NEB...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS IS LIKELY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG SWRN FLANKS OF THE COLD POOL...CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL MCS MOTION TO THE SSE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH NRN/WRN MO AND ERN KS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SERN KS AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS AFTER 01-02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40509442 39509259 37949233 37349339 37359517 38269746 40059753 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:26:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:26:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140025 NCZ000-VAZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/FAR SOUTHERN VA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 140025Z - 140130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION/WW 595...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE VA/NC BORDER. COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE PUSHED ORIGINAL WEST-EAST BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ALONG AND ADJACENT TO WW 595...ANY SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT RESIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE NEARING THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL NC /AS OF 0015Z/. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE VIA PERSISTENCE OF 80S F TEMP/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG. EVEN WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN REPETITIVE STORM MOTIONS/RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 35618019 36427990 36537889 36567754 36497648 36217568 35847560 35567684 35577890 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:27:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:27:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140026 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... VALID 140026Z - 140200Z SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITHIN WS 594 THIS EVENING. EVOLUTION OF A SWD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EVIDENT WELL SE OF THE WW THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ATOP THE COLD POOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ECNTRL NEB AND WCNTRL IA RECENTLY...POSING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. FARTHER W...A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL AND AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CU WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE NOT GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY...PRESUMABLY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN CINH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS OVER CNTRL MN MAY BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING SHOULD DECREASE AS PRIMARY LLJ FOCUSES FARTHER S AHEAD OF THE MCS OVER NRN MO/NERN KS BY LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40749913 44539750 44559406 40639594 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:27:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:27:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140025 NCZ000-VAZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/FAR SOUTHERN VA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 140025Z - 140130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION/WW 595...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE VA/NC BORDER. COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE PUSHED ORIGINAL WEST-EAST BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ALONG AND ADJACENT TO WW 595...ANY SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT RESIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE NEARING THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL NC /AS OF 0015Z/. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE VIA PERSISTENCE OF 80S F TEMP/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG. EVEN WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN REPETITIVE STORM MOTIONS/RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 35618019 36427990 36537889 36567754 36497648 36217568 35847560 35567684 35577890  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:28:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:28:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140026 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... VALID 140026Z - 140200Z SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITHIN WS 594 THIS EVENING. EVOLUTION OF A SWD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EVIDENT WELL SE OF THE WW THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ATOP THE COLD POOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ECNTRL NEB AND WCNTRL IA RECENTLY...POSING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. FARTHER W...A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL AND AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CU WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE NOT GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY...PRESUMABLY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN CINH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS OVER CNTRL MN MAY BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING SHOULD DECREASE AS PRIMARY LLJ FOCUSES FARTHER S AHEAD OF THE MCS OVER NRN MO/NERN KS BY LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40749913 44539750 44559406 40639594  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 01:01:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 21:01:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140059 MNZ000-SDZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MN/FAR EASTERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 140059Z - 140230Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF WW 596 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF WW 596 TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES METRO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION APPEARS IMMINENT. VIA CONGLOMERATION OF EARLIER TSTMS...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THIS COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DRIVING A SMALL SCALE MCS NEAR HUTCHINSON/LITCHFIELD MN ABOUT 40 W OF MSP AS OF 0045Z...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. THE 00Z MPX OBSERVED RAOB WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF A FAIRLY UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN...STORMS INTENSITY HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS/INCREASING SURFACE CINH. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47749588 47829362 46379337 45109297 44549367 44639491 44779666 45219686 46679609 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 02:21:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 22:21:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140220 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...SERN NEB...NRN/CNTRL MO...WCNTRL IL...SRN IA...SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140220Z - 140415Z LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE LINEAR MCS ARCS FROM ERN IA ACROSS NRN MO AND NERN KS AT 02Z. 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS FROM S OF KANSAS CITY ESEWD INTO AREAS JUST WEST OF ST. LOUIS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN 3-3.5 KJ PER KG ALONG/S OF A WARM FRONT. PRIND THAT THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVE. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR S THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD...BUT GIVEN THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE S OF THE STRONGER WLYS...A TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL/LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY. FARTHER W...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND NCNTRL KS ATOP THE COLD POOL EMANATING FROM THE NRN MO MCS. PROFILERS/VWP SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ WAS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS NRN/ERN KS INTO NRN MO. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA ATOP A WEAK COLD BUBBLE/MESO HIGH. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE A LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. ..RACY.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37750060 40529967 41689654 42089429 41329199 39579116 38049188 37609425 37529762 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 06:08:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2006 02:08:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140607 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140607 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140607Z - 140730Z HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS A LARGE MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN AND SRN KS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS WRN AR INTO SE KS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE SWD IN NERN OK AND NW AR AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE MCS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SSEWD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THE LATEST PROFILER DATA OVER SERN KS SHOW ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MCS IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER NE KS AND THIS ALONG WITH STABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A WW MIGHT BE CONSIDERED LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38769491 38479434 37749395 37039392 36159410 35639489 35599563 35799647 36329687 37259707 38219693 38769611 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 06:34:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2006 02:34:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140634 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-140800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW WI...SE MN AND NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140634Z - 140800Z STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO SW WI AND SE MN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SE MN FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN MN. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS SHOW WEAK SHEAR PROFILES /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT/ AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT SHORT-LIVED. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE MCS MOVES EWD INTO WCNTRL WI. ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44909022 44588962 44068936 43538929 43048958 42798983 42629070 42659154 42919231 43489269 44439246 44959154 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 16 23:08:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2006 19:08:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162307 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE MN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162307Z - 170100Z THE NEED FOR A WW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEAST OF HIBBING MN APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED...TO THE NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK COOLING ALOFT HAS OCCURRED IN WEST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO HAVE OCCURRED AS INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION BECAME ROOTED IN VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG. SO...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW LONG SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL PERSIST...AS ONGOING ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ABOVE COOLER MARINE LAYER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR... AND RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST IN FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME UPSTREAM...INTO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS. AN EAST-WEST BAND OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN MODERATE TO STRONG AND SHEARED MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF... 48969714 48989483 48179148 47968949 47728795 47148618 46448629 46208793 46509040 46879198 47089342 47519540 47969696 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 16 23:44:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2006 19:44:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162343 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-170115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SRN MN/WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162343Z - 170115Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH OR TWO. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF INHIBITION...BUT ALSO DUE TO THE LACK OF A MORE OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN A BELT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKER STREAM ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ONE IMPULSE IS NOW SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND...WEAK MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AN EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. UPPER FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE MODERATE THAN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BUT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/SIZABLE CAPE/AND SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF SIOUX FALLS INTO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. ..KERR.. 07/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44469891 45239817 45579705 45829477 44959150 44688954 43658869 43138988 43429163 43599489 43569706 43619860 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 00:06:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2006 20:06:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170005 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN...CENTRAL...WRN AZ AND EXTREME SRN NV/SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170005Z - 170230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING FAR SRN AZ AND PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF WRN AZ IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM HAS REMAINED STRONG UNTIL IT MOVES DOWN TO AROUND 3 KFT IN ELEVATION. 18Z PHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATES THERE REMAINS SOME CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SVR THREAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE PHX METRO AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER NW...CONVECTION OVER NWRN PLATEAU REGION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A COLD POOL RECENTLY. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF FAR NWRN AZ AND EXTREME SRN NV APPEARS TO BE LESS CAPPED THAN THE PHX METRO AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. THUS AN ORGANIZED DMGG WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS IF CONTINUED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. OVER FAR SRN AZ...NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BNDRY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CINH AND SUPPORT CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF TUS WHERE AIRMASS WAS MORE UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32271399 33391453 35561519 36251448 36051359 35261267 34181131 33151129 31521148 31491146 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 08:49:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 04:49:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170847 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-171015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN...NRN WI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170847Z - 171015Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING SWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH A DRY SLOT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS NRN MN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT AND OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...HOWEVER SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THE CAP WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES RANGE FROM ABOUT 30 TO 40 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9.0 C/KM. THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STORM COVERAGE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH... 46298929 46359255 46729377 47549385 47989314 47989116 47678842 46598824 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 17:11:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 13:11:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171709 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-171915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...EXTREME NRN IL...CNTRL AND SRN WI THROUGH ERN UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171709Z - 171915Z SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z OVER WRN PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ONE OR MORE WWS MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL WI...SERN MN AND INTO NRN IA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. OTHER BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS EXTEND FROM NERN IA INTO SRN WI. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS ADVECTED EWD OVER RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 4000 J/KG. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO. THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND MAY DELAY SURFACE BASED INITIATION ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING FURTHER WEAKENS THE CAP. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43309372 43909266 44459122 45218994 45898797 46528713 46608493 46098406 45238381 44388603 42628846 42199256 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 19:12:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 15:12:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171909 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN LA...SERN OK AND SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171909Z - 172145Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GENERALLY MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD FROM WRN LA INTO PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LIMITED SVR THREAT AND ORGANIZATION...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BNDRY EXTENDING SE-NW FROM NEAR LAF TO NEAR TXK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ON THIS BNDRY. COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER VORT CENTER OVER SRN MS SHOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BNDRY AND IN THE VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS THAT EXTENDS NWWD INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR. 20-25 KT MID LEVEL NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ON RECENT LCH AND SHV VWP DATA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER SRN MS/LA...EXPECT SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD THROUGH WRN LA AND ECENTRAL/SERN TX WITH SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE /MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OR CELL MERGERS WITHIN LINES. FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR. TERRAIN AIDED FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS...WITH DMGG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG/...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND DCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 30049141 30989275 33029375 34909389 35219414 35049648 34509692 32259627 31429581 29219491 29279410 29459210 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 20:54:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 16:54:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172049 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AND WRN AZ...FAR SWRN UT AND SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172049Z - 172245Z ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM NWWD INTO THE SCENTRAL MTNS OF UT. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP WWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS /TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN NV/ AFTER 22Z WITH THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN DMGG WIND THREAT. FURTHER SE...AN MCV OVER SERN AZ MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS OF SERN AZ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR WIND/BLOWING DUST RISK IN THE PHX METRO AREA/SCENTRAL AZ ALSO AFTER 22Z. 24 HR TREND ANALYSES SHOWS MANY SFC OBS HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM A 3-10 DEG F DWPT INCREASE. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY SLIGHT COOLING /3-4 DEG F/. THEREFORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH EXISTED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. SO IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING TO AID IN ANY SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN AZ/SWRN UT AND SERN AZ TO DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY /AROUND 20 KTS/. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT...WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION AND A DMGG WIND THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 31941192 32671311 34711438 35301514 35941504 36891482 37521408 37681349 37631320 37121301 35341170 34961122 34381069 33861051 33021037 32321026 31561096  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:02:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:02:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172201 MIZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172201Z - 172300Z NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 607 SHORTLY. STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION NOW SEEMS WELL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...WEAKENED INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING LINE OF INTENSE STORMS. FOCUS APPEARS TO BE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST...CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING LONGEVITY OF SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS...WHICH COULD APPROACH AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF DETROIT BY 00Z. ACTIVITY COULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. REGARDLESS...AS SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL FORCING/DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE FLINT/ LANSING AND DETROIT AREAS BY AT LEAST 03Z. ..KERR.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42268298 42068381 42138520 42268575 42798580 43438530 43778410 44058312 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:24:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:24:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172222 CAZ000-180045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MTNS/HIGH DESERT OF SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172222Z - 180045Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV MOVING WWD OVER SERN CA. DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 90S ABOVE 4000 FT...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S PER RAWS DATA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF MLCINH IN THE MTNS AND AROUND 50 J/KG OF MLCINH IN THE HIGH DESERT. RECENT VWP DATA SHOWING 30-35 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV. COMBINED WITH WEAK WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AROUND 40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ROTATION. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY SUPPORT STG-SVR ELY WIND GUST GUSTS THAT WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF THE COASTAL MTNS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE HIGH DESERT WITH APPROACH OF MCV BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 34051647 34401657 35251722 35241814 34881850 34581848 33951774 33271684 32781662 32751627 33391627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:35:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:35:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172234 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL...NRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606...607... VALID 172234Z - 180000Z CONTINUE WWS 606-607. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. STRONG HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF EXTREME CONDITIONAL/ CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. AT LEAST UNTIL INHIBITION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AFTER ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LATER THIS EVENING... INCREASING SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AS FRONTAL FORCING DEVELOPS THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. MEAN FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE DOWNBURSTS. LOCALIZED VERY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A BROADER-SCALE STRONG/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AS A CONVECTIVE LINE GRADUALLY EVOLVES. THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA MAY BE IMPACTED BY 01-02Z...AND PERHAPS SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN NOT LONG THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43428250 43198368 42988472 42168553 41458645 41138794 40529069 40499306 41389408 42379364 42889297 43319153 43798912 44218695 44418556 44948242 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:42:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:42:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172241 COR MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL...LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606...607... VALID 172241Z - 180000Z CORRECTED SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI CONTINUE WWS 606-607. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. STRONG HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF EXTREME CONDITIONAL/ CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. AT LEAST UNTIL INHIBITION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AFTER ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LATER THIS EVENING... INCREASING SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AS FRONTAL FORCING DEVELOPS THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. MEAN FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE DOWNBURSTS. LOCALIZED VERY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A BROADER-SCALE STRONG/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AS A CONVECTIVE LINE GRADUALLY EVOLVES. THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA MAY BE IMPACTED BY 01-02Z...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN NOT LONG THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43428250 43198368 42988472 42168553 41458645 41138794 40529069 40499306 41389408 42379364 42889297 43319153 43798912 44218695 44418556 44948242 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 00:47:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 20:47:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180045 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NV...NWRN AZ AND SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... VALID 180045Z - 180245Z CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SVR THREAT SHOULD APPROACH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/LAKE MEAD AREA SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS AROUND 03Z. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRA MODIFIED FOR CONDITIONS IN LAS INDICATED LITTLE MLCINH AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. TSTM ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME CINH REMAINING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. RUC PFC/S INDICATE AROUND 25 J/KG OF MLCINH BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 97/52 AT IGM. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED CELL MERGERS/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE SVR THREAT WILL STILL PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE LOWER COLO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL REMAIN SVR AND POSE A SVR THREAT ALL THE WAY INTO THE LAS VEGAS AREA...CONSIDERING THE RECENT MOTION TRENDS AND GRADUAL STABILIZATION AFTER 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PSR...VEF... 34281421 34091530 33991606 36561608 37001337 34371339 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 02:00:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 22:00:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180158 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607... VALID 180158Z - 180300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW...ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03Z. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT WW 607 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE WEAKENING OF WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH JETLET MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE LOW WEST OF KIRKSVILLE. WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL EAST OF ST. JOSEPH/NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CELL WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. BEYOND 03-04Z...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AS INHIBITION GRADUALLY INCREASES FOR COOLING SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. ..KERR.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40019410 40389333 40639240 40269144 39659155 39459292 39489415 39829422 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 03:14:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 23:14:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180312 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-180445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SRN LWR MI...NRN IND...NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 608...610... VALID 180312Z - 180445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 608 AND 610. ADDITIONAL WW SOUTH OF WW 608 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS FOR MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 05-06Z APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN/EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS AREA REMAINS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN GENERAL...WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA ...HAS BEEN SLOW TO COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S. ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA... COOLER...MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF DETROIT. ..KERR.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42408951 42928798 42728677 42538589 42278442 42418333 41828259 41178374 40928593 40728773 40478925 40628996 41538931 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 05:34:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 01:34:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180532 MEZ000-180700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180532Z - 180700Z MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE MOVING INTO NRN MAINE. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN QUEBEC WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IS MOVING INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WRN MAINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SUGGESTS THE LINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. THIS MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE MARGINAL. THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45056847 45386979 45897028 47316955 47686881 47646785 46516707 45456739 45086840 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 05:58:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 01:58:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180556 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-180730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND AND NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610... VALID 180556Z - 180730Z ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR BEFORE STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NRN IL WITH A COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN IND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM THE WRN EDGE OF THE MCS OVER FAR SRN LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS NRN IL. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MCS IS MOVING SWD INTO AND AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MCS. ..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40468649 40498831 41108863 41598826 41788668 41728525 41488472 40958471 40688480 40568532 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 11:40:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 07:40:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181139 INZ000-ILZ000-181315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181139Z - 181315Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SWD ACROSS SCNTRL IL. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN MO TO NRN IND. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE BAND NEAR A MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN CNTRL IL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38618777 38108881 38378972 39188987 39868948 40088903 40028806 39338753 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 14:58:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 10:58:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181457 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181456 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181456Z - 181630Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ONE OR MORE WW/S MAY BE REQUIRED. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF UNV TO SE BGM TO SE BML. IN FACT...A TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER BRADFORD COUNTY IN N-CNTRL PA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. MODESTLY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SMALL-SCALE BOWS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 40807907 41177856 42087646 43297318 44667043 44086972 42397086 40167831 40247893 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 17:36:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 13:36:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181734 LAZ000-TXZ000-181930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 181734Z - 181930Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN NEAR/WEST OF HOUSTON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS/SMALL HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES WESTWARD MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE HOUSTON METRO SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE JACKSON TX. AT PEARLAND...A 37 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AROUND 17Z...WITH A GUST TO 35 KTS AT HOUSTON/ELLINGTON AROUND THE SAME TIME. STRONG DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION ON THIS PERIPHERY OF THIS EXISTING ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO A WITH RESULTANT EXPANSION OF TSTMS/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA...WHERE A SIMILAR ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. OVERALL ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28999621 29449646 30269616 31499425 31489302 30689152 30049115 29989278 30049369 29719461 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 17:54:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 13:54:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181753 OHZ000-INZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IND INT0 CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181753Z - 181900Z THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER PARTS OF E-CNTRL IND/W-CNTRL OH INVOF WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM W-CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL OH. HERE...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEAR TO BE LOCAL MINIMUMS IN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND WINDS. STILL...SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST OWING TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40138628 40758580 41028501 40898379 40628288 40698143 40398100 39938122 39498242 39448404 39538516 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 18:55:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 14:55:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181854 ILZ000-MOZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181854Z - 182030Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM NEAR UIN TO N OF SPI...TO THE N OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW N OF STL ENEWD INTO CNTRL IL. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 3500-4500 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS REGION OF AGITATED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH NRN IND INTO CNTRL IL. THEREFORE...SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ABOVE THE PBL MAY TEND TO SLOW TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS NNWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 30-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38379048 38059318 38579323 39419150 40259053 40518990 40608923 40278858 39508867 38818925 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 19:17:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 15:17:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181915 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MD INTO NRN VA AND FAR ERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181915Z - 182015Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. MODIFICATION OF 18Z WAL SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER ERN WV ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38087948 38707936 39157896 39527828 39687770 39697692 39497635 38787606 37837671 37457773 37427879 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 22:14:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 18:14:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 182212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182212 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...NJ...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611...612... VALID 182212Z - 182345Z NEW WWS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES OF WW 611 AND 612. NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK IS ONGOING. AND...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS. FLOW FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA THROUGH NEW YORK CITY AND THE BOSTON AREA REMAINS VERY WARM/MOIST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL. GRADUALLY EVOLUTION OF A VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE UPPER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...CTP... 41657002 41237081 40857232 40507348 39607478 39907621 40207593 40697527 41227403 41657260 42107138 42427082 42297006 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 00:44:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:44:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190042 MOZ000-190215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190042Z - 190215Z AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED BY AROUND 02Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES TO PERSIST/MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AREAS OF THE MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST /ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARMINGTON MO/. COINCIDENT WITH MEAN PROPAGATION...THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE FAVORING A SW-NE ORIENTED WIND SHIFT/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO. RUC-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 50 MILES OR SO DOWNSTREAM/SOUTHWEST OF THE EXISTING SUPERCELL...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AS FAR WEST AS PULASKI/TEXAS/HOWELL COUNTIES MO PER ADJUSTED 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED RAOB. THUS...CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OFFSET VIA A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING CINH/COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO A CONVECTIVE DOWNSWING. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37899253 38049168 37709077 37119050 36729074 36589167 36639241 36939279 37269282 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 01:01:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 21:01:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190059 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-190230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...614... VALID 190059Z - 190230Z CONTINUE WW 614. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 613 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AREA...MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN NOW AND 03-04Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...THROUGH CONNECTICUT/RHODE ISLAND...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL PROBABLY SPREAD ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND AREAS BY 02-03Z...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. PEAK GUSTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG GUST FRONT. AND...DESPITE CONSIDERABLE COOLING OF PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...POTENTIALLY COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER DOWNBURSTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 42177099 42157030 41576994 40927089 40087351 39207515 39377657 39917818 39927809 40257649 41087528 41677397 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 03:44:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 23:44:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190342 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-190445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... VALID 190342Z - 190445Z ZONE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 05-06Z. IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLING/STABILIZING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. UNTIL THEN...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..KERR.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... 41537004 40907114 40707251 40757337 41157295 41507163 41957097 42217043 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 06:26:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 02:26:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190624 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD...SRN ND...FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190624Z - 190800Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS NRN SD AND SRN ND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN ND. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL SD TO SERN ND. RUC FORECASTS MOVE THE AXIS EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40 KT. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45099631 44589961 44510123 44790201 45920195 46320032 46589771 46469623 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 12:18:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 08:18:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191216 MNZ000-191345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191216Z - 191345Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SW MN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MCS OVER WRN MN ALONG THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS THE STORM CLUSTER MOVES ESEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THE SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD... 45639472 45209364 44109376 43709499 44119619 44799632 45409585 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 14:41:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 10:41:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191440 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-191615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN / W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI / NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191440Z - 191615Z ONGOING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.. AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO DISTINCT MESOSCALE SYSTEMS...ONE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE EXTENDING FROM 30 NNE MSP TO 15 NE FRM...AND ANOTHER E OF MCW. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED N OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH SWRN MN...CNTRL IA AND NRN IL INTO SRN WI. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z MPX SOUNDING COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG SWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF INFLOW AIR MASS WITH STORMS LIKELY BECOMING MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY 12Z ABR SOUNDING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SHOULD SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CORES GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43229360 44339344 45049203 44729065 44159011 43538967 42648974 42099086 42219174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 16:42:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 12:42:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-191815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI/ NERN IA / NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... VALID 191640Z - 191815Z THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS. ADDITIONAL WW/S MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME. A COMPLEX MCS EVOLUTION HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AS LARGER-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER SERN MN HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED WHILE SMALLER BOW OVER NERN IA HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. AT 0.5 DEGREES...STRONG INBOUND RADIAL VELOCITIES HAVE PERSISTED ON LACROSSE WI RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN BOW ECHO...HOWEVER ONLY FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. BASED ON RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT SYSTEM MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...PREVENTING THE MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL WI...TO THE S OF A SECONDARY WARM FRONT/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS N OF LSE EWD TO S OF OSH. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DECAYING NRN BOW ECHO AS LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR. FARTHER S OVER NERN IA...STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER S TO VICINITY OF MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 ESE FOD TO 30 W MLI. WHILE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TEND TO DIMINISH WITH SRN EXTENT...INSTABILITY INCREASES OWING TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP S OF WW 616 INTO E-CNTRL IA AND NWRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42229240 43019249 43859216 44249148 44429064 44308976 43028946 42088979 41639053 41629137  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 18:08:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 14:08:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191807 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN WV/WESTERN AND CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191807Z - 192030Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT AREAS OF WV/VA/NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE AS WELL. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NORTHERN NC. GIVEN STRONG INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S/LOWER 90S F AND 70S F DEWPOINTS...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS FROM WASHINGTON DC/BLACKSBURG VA/GREENSBORO NC...WITH MLCAPES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. MORNING RAOBS/CURRENT WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK FLOW REGIME THAT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION. PULSE-TYPE MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND SLOW/POTENTIALLY TRAINING STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. SINCE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED...NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX... 38967927 38837789 38287736 37097776 35767886 36078021 36998087 37598071 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 18:26:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 14:26:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191824 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/MUCH OF LA/SOUTHERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191824Z - 192030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AL/SOUTHERN MS/MUCH OF LA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...PRIMARILY ACROSS LA/SOUTHERN MS. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 90S F/DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL/LA PER DEEPENING CU FIELD...WITH INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20/JACKSON ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. WITH A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM YESTERDAY...12Z OBSERVED RAOBS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUPPORTS MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG IN A STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ROUNDING THE RIDGE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/SMALL CLUSTERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31529276 32849279 32979040 32398812 31888706 30918764 30529001 30589152 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 19:25:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 15:25:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191924 MOZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191924Z - 192030Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM N OF VIH TO NEAR FAM. HERE...AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG OWING TO A HOT AND QUITE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOCAL VADS/VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AS REGION IS ON ERN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE INTENSE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37619237 38209257 38659220 38739150 38449081 37979026 37409008 36919044 36929135 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 19:57:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 15:57:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191955 ILZ000-192100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191955Z - 192100Z ONGOING TSTMS OVER NWRN IL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP S OF WW 617 BY 21Z. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. AS OF 1950Z...DVN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT SEGMENT BOWING STRUCTURE FROM BUREAU COUNTY SWWD INTO KNOW COUNTY IL WITH A MOTION OF 330/35 KTS. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL IL HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG OWING TO A HOT AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS INTO CNTRL IL THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40309098 40569049 40378969 40338847 40418768 40058762 39128771 39048888 39198992 39409071 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 20:33:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 16:33:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192031 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192031Z - 192200Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW MAY BE NEEDED AS SOON AS 21Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW S OF YKN WITH ATTENDANT COMPOSITE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN IA NEAR SPW AND THEN MORE SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA E OF DSM. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA HAS BECOME QUITE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES OF 95-105 F. WHEN COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-5000 J/KG. A STRONG CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED AIR ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL NEB. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION TOWARD SURFACE TRIPLE POINT REGION OVER NWRN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AS UPDRAFTS TAP THE STRONG INSTABILITY. CURRENT FSD VWP APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND AROUND 45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42849696 43269669 43629625 43779525 43529421 42949292 41899279 41719352 42149451 42449565 42549660 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 20:43:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 16:43:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192041 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... VALID 192041Z - 192245Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO NORTHEAST LA...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA. NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS...GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WESTWARD PUSH OF A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ AS OF 2040Z. FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 15-20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA. IF IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZED THREAT WILL REACH OUT OF WW 618 WITH WEST EXTENT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32769335 33069185 32989031 32848943 31898917 31148933 30749068 30759237 31069319 31609339 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 21:17:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 17:17:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192115 NEZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192115Z - 192245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE FEATURES HIGH BASED TOWERING CU ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ROUGHLY ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NEB. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS/BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS MUCH OF NEB...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL IN EXCESS OF 100F. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS MODEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE INVERTED-V PROFILES/VERY LARGE DCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. IT IS LIKELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND LIKELY AROUND SUNSET. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40750193 41500186 42249982 42579824 42259781 41189922 40830079 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 22:25:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 18:25:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192223 ILZ000-MOZ000-200000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR EASTERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619... VALID 192223Z - 200000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY SOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN MO...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR/EAST OF ST LOUIS. INTENSE MCS WITH HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS /IN ADDITION TO SOME LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO/ CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR SPRINGFIELD/JACKSONVILLE AS OF 2215Z. WITH A PREFERENTIAL PROPAGATION FAVORING THE W/SW FLANK OF THE MCS...COLD POOL MOMENTUM/FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE/SUPPORT THIS MCS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO AREAS NEAR ST LOUIS/INTERSTATE 70 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...IS CHARACTERIZED BY EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY SOON. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 38799105 40149096 40579039 40588918 40548799 39608765 39088801 38098843 37778892 37519003 38109075 38399107 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 22:36:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 18:36:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192234 ILZ000-200000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... VALID 192234Z - 200000Z CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW/INTO WW 619. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL CONTINUES MOVING SEWD/SSEWD ACROSS NRN AND INTO CENTRAL IL ATTM. THREAT ACROSS WW 617 HAS DIMINISHED BEHIND ONGOING STORMS...WITH THREAT NOW LIMITED TO SERN PORTIONS OF WW -- PARTS OF NERN IL. THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN INDIANA WITH TIME...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE SWD WITH TIME -- AND THUS REMAIN MAINLY W OF THE IL/INDIANA STATE LINE. THEREFORE...NEW WW E OF EXISTING WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..GOSS.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX... 41228807 40988777 40638779 40368855 40458961 40668962 41238849 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 23:51:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 19:51:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192349 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-200115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LA/EASTERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618...621... VALID 192349Z - 200115Z SMALL VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO EASTERN TX...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS/LOCALIZED STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS INTO EASTERN LA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. REMAINING SMALL PORTION OF WATCH 618 WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT/BEFORE THE SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION. FARTHER WEST...WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AND WELL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO DRIVE MCS /WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE/ WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THE WINNFIELD/ALEXANDRIA AREAS AT 2330Z. ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE COLD POOL/20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW...COUPLED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WESTERN LA...AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO EASTERN TX. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31999507 32599491 32849329 32759208 31199099 30649257 30789430 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 00:43:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 20:43:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200041 LAZ000-TXZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN LA/EASTERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... VALID 200041Z - 200245Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL REMAINING ACROSS FAR WESTERN LA/EASTERN TX. WELL ORGANIZED AND LONG SUSTAINED COLD POOL/MCS CONTINUES TO DRIVE WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN LA THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS NEARING THE SABINE RIVER AS OF 0030Z...INCLUDING AREAS FROM SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT TO NEAR FORT POLK/LEESVILLE LA. SIMILAR TO UPSTREAM HISTORY...PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH THE MCS CROSSING THE SABINE AND NEARING THE NACOGDOCHES/LUFKIN/JASPER TX AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE -- PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT/LAKE CHARLES. THIS MCS APPEARS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN TX /WESTERN PART OF WW 621/...ATTRIBUTABLE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX. ..GUYER.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 32759529 32999455 32829294 31439242 30659258 30719458 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 00:58:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 20:58:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200057 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 620... VALID 200057Z - 200230Z THREAT FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS NWRN IA AND VICINITY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER E AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS NWRN IA AND VICINITY...WITH SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT STILL BEING SUPPRESSED ATTM. THOUGH NNW-SSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LYING ACROSS CENTRAL IA...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET -- IS MAINLY OCCURRING FROM SERN MN/SWRN WI INTO NRN IL...WELL E OF THE WARM SECTOR. EVENING DVN RAOB SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE BASED NEAR 700 MB ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE AROUND 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE EXISTS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT -- WILL REMAIN FROM SERN MN SEWD ACROSS NERN IA AND SRN WI INTO NERN IL/NWRN IN...AND THAT TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS WW. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43529704 44289237 44009054 43308817 42138757 40688762 40919012 42429338 42199702 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 01:24:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 21:24:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200122 MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200122Z - 200215Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SERN IA...AS STORMS MAY CONTINUE SPREADING SWD/SSWWD ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SWWD ACROSS SERN MO AT AROUND 35 KT...ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TERM SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF THIS CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS -- ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38139062 38128969 36878983 36389097 36719234 37089242 38089172 38389149 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 01:34:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 21:34:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200133 COR MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0833 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200133Z - 200215Z CORRECTED TO CHANGE IA TO MO IN FIRST SENTENCE NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SERN MO...AS STORMS MAY CONTINUE SPREADING SWD/SSWWD ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SWWD ACROSS SERN MO AT AROUND 35 KT...ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TERM SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF THIS CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS -- ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38139062 38128969 36878983 36389097 36719234 37089242 38089172 38389149 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 03:33:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 23:33:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200331 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... VALID 200331Z - 200500Z ...SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING... LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM TXK TO LFK. STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LINGERING STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTION. MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KT WERE OBSERVED AS THE STORMS MOVED OVER THE SHV AREA AROUND 02Z. INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS E TX...BUT ELY WAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IS INCREASING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50KT...AS SAMPLED IN SHREVEPORT VAD WIND DATA. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE WANING. ..TAYLOR.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30199153 30049427 30879595 32099586 33019546 33279501 33229354 31979282 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 03:50:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 23:50:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200348 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-200515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/NERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200348Z - 200515Z STORMS WILL INCREASE/SPREAD ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO AREAS E OF TORNADO WATCH 623. NEW WW LIKELY. SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS IA...FUELING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MN AND VICINITY. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAKER E OF ONGOING STORMS...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN EWD SPREAD OF THE SEVERE THREAT AS SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN MN CONTINUES MOVING EWD. STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH EWD EXTENT...SUGGESTING THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TREND WITH TIME TOWARD HAIL. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 44599224 44449066 43528847 42838786 41458816 42269199 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 07:33:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 03:33:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200732 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-200900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...FAR ERN IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 200732Z - 200900Z A SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE EVOLVING BOW MOVES ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS MN AND WI WITH A MCS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MCS IS MOVING SEWD NEAR 40 KT AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD INTO ERN WI...LAKE MICHIGAN AND NERN IL SUGGESTING THE MCS SHOULD TRACK ESEWD INTO THE MILWAUKEE BY 09Z AND INTO THE CHICAGO AREA BY 10Z TO 11Z. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT. THE QUICK FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41198846 41429035 42289105 43049091 43539055 43848966 43778852 43328755 42258724 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 07:57:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 03:57:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200755 IAZ000-200930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 623... VALID 200755Z - 200930Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE TAIL END OF THE LINEAR MCS EXITS NERN IA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE WRN END OF A LARGE MCS ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 70S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT GENERALLY ABOVE 850 MB WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET WHICH IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42179209 42169389 42539452 43059448 43389393 43279186 42669144 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:18:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:18:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200816 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200816Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41128755 43018773 43698768 43708522 42388477 42368475 40828477 40658654 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:21:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:21:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200819 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200819Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...MKX... 40748743 43638792 43558505 40688465 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:25:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:25:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200816 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200816Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41128755 43018773 43698768 43708522 42388477 42368475 40828477 40658654  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:26:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:26:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200819 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200819Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...MKX... 40748743 43638792 43558505 40688465  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 10:20:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 06:20:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201018 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND...SW LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625... VALID 201018Z - 201145Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS BEGINNING TO TURN SEWD AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER ECNTRL IL AND NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOUTH OF WW 624 AND WW 625 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO ON THE NERN EDGE OF A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. RUC DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ALOFT TURN NLY ACROSS ERN IL AND IND WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN A TURN OF THE LINEAR MCS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL IL AND NERN IND AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MCS AS THE SUN COMES UP. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ALLOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOW. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40048605 39818796 40058918 40598982 41498928 41758739 42428616 42568537 42048454 41148455 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 12:04:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 08:04:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201202 ILZ000-WIZ000-201330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 201202Z - 201330Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A LARGE MCS FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE WRN EDGE OF THE MCS IS FEEDING UPON THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS ERN IA AND SW WI. A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALSO EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO NRN IL WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT AS FURTHER EAST...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 40718867 40248959 40599072 41889006 42788968 43078902 42698769 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 07:17:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 03:17:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220715 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-220815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AREA INTO CNTRL VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635... VALID 220715Z - 220815Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z. FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. DESPITE CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW REMAINS WEAK AHEAD OF MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH STILL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MINIMIZING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 36398013 37417956 38047836 37357732 36037733 34697891 33868002 33508147 34088244 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 14:11:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 10:11:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221409 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221409 RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-221545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...SERN NY...CT...MA...DE...RI...NJ...NERN MD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221409Z - 221545Z THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER E-CENTRAL PA... WARM FRONT ARCHES NEWD OVER SERN NY BETWEEN BGM-MSV...THEN ESEWD ACROSS CT/MA BORDER REGION. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO DRIFT NWD AS SFC LOW MOVES ENEWD...TOWARD SERN NY. MEANWHILE SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH APCH OF GREAT LAKES MID-UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN ENHANCED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKED FLOW NE-SE OF CYCLONE CENTER. 100 M HEIGHT FALL WAS NOTED IN 12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS AT PIT...WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED E OF LOW. IN FCST SOUNDINGS...THIS YIELDS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- I.E. 0-1 KM AGL SRH 100-200 J/KG -- AND AT LEAST MRGL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RATE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT...AND MODIFIED IAD/OKX RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE PARCELS ALREADY ARE ROOTED AT SFC OVER MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA. ONLY WEAK HEATING OF 2-4 DEG F IS NEEDED TO REMOVE REMAINING SBCINH. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 40577672 41427647 42337570 42627399 42457216 41947145 41247173 40877243 40557396 39867404 39317441 38957483 38947582 40077659 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 17:31:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 13:31:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221728 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS/NRN AND CNTRL AL/NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 221728Z - 221930Z PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH BETTER SHEAR NORTH OF THE SWD SAGGING FRONT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/INFLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT...SUFFICIENT COLD POOL ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE. IF STORMS DO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. MULTICELLULAR TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PULSE CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT AS WEAK CAP HAS BEEN REMOVED. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MODIFIED OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CELLS. MORNING RAOBS WERE ALSO FAIRLY SATURATED IN THE LOW/MID-LEVELS WITH PWATS NEAR TWO INCHES. THUS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH WEAK GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT THAT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREA VAD PROFILERS INDICATE THAT 25 KT OR GREATER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS N TO JUST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..GRAMS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 32688559 32258797 32438931 33218946 33728808 34328659 34938529 34968447 34818344 34208313 33128428 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 17:56:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 13:56:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221753 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/SRN WI...NRN IA...SRN MN...EXTREME NRN IL. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221753Z - 222030Z SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OVER REGION AS CINH WEAKENS...ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH THREAT OF SVR HAIL FROM MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. A FEW STRONG GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY W OF MS RIVER...WHERE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT INVOF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND SRN MN...WITH ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN DAKOTAS SSEWD ACROSS ERN NEB. JUXTAPOSITION OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE OVER SRN MN AND NERN IA...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY ALREADY HAS INITIATED AND LIKELY IS BECOMING SFC-BASED OVER CENTRAL WI AS TEMPS RISE INTO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES INCREASING TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF AREA BY 21Z...AMIDST FAVORABLE SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S F. RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND PRESENCE OF WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GENERATED ALOFT TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44679505 44349241 44568963 44078804 42648844 42118968 41909126 43069520 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 18:14:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 14:14:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221812 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN VA...NRN NC...DC...MD W OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221812Z - 221915Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AND WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR VA/MD PORTION OF THIS AREA. GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND E OF EWD-DRIFTING LEE TROUGH -- ANALYZED FROM DC AREA JUST W OF I-95 INTO NC. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC DIABATIC HEATING. RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT -- EVIDENT IN 12Z IAD RAOB -- IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE OF AREA CONCURRENT WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION AT SFC...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES RISING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER NE IN WW 636...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS/BOWS STILL ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO A RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38017528 37097586 36687631 36427750 36487877 36967849 38877710 39527610 38077645 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 20:46:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 16:46:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222044 CTZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...WRN-CENTRAL CT...SERN NY...DE...DC...PORTIONS ERN PA...CENTRAL/SRN MD...S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN VA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...637... VALID 222044Z - 222215Z SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS WW AREAS. NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS NEAR PREFRONTAL TROUGH -- FROM NERN NJ SWWD TO NERN CHESAPEAKE BAY -- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS 626. MEANWHILE SEPARATE LINE OF CONVECTION INVOF SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NERN PA SWWD ACROSS ERN WV -- WILL APCH WRN PORTION OF BOTH WWS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SVR GUSTS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN NY. WARM FRONT -- EXTENDING EWD THROUGH BOS AREA -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD TOWARD SRN VT/NH BORDERS. DESTABILIZATION TO ITS S OVER MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND IMPACTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FROM SWRN CT ACROSS SERN VA AND BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS...CLEARING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL INSOLATION. THIS...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F -- WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. LARGEST MLCAPES -- TO NEAR 1500 J/KG -- ARE EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN DELMARVA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAX DEW POINTS...AND MAY EXPAND NWD INTO NJ. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FROM NJ NEWD. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF CYCLONE...IN ONLY MRGLLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WW AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT VEERED -- MAINLY SSWLY TO SWLY -- LIMITING BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE AND CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 35-45 KT RANGE WITH APCH OF GREAT LAKES MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR ANY DISCRETE TSTMS...AND FOR SMALL BOWS...WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON LOCAL SCALES AT STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OR IN BOW ECHO VORTICES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37707964 38857793 40717592 42287441 42437335 42067347 42017258 41267236 41037175 40587332 40287324 40227362 39597371 39027434 38647475 38187475 37577521 36937566 36537553 36538000 36848008 36837967 37117960 37238009 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 21:07:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 17:07:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222104 NVZ000-CAZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SRN SIERRAS/COASTAL RANGE AND DESERTS OF CA INTO SWRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222104Z - 222300Z ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA INTO SWRN NV. OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WELL-DEFINED MCV IN VIS IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY ROTATING SLOWLY NWWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGE NEWD INTO THE SRN SIERRAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 105 TO 120 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE CREATING DEEP INVERTED-V SIGNATURES IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. DCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURST WINDS IN ANY SUSTAINED CELLS. A 43 KT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT SDB WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ELY FLOW CONTAINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN BORDER. ..GRAMS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 33741675 34371777 34551886 34771950 35161932 35521884 36531858 37161879 38001964 38481898 37931765 37171606 35171536 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 23:26:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 19:26:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222324 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...WRN CT...DE...ERN MD...ERN PA AND SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 222324Z - 230030Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 0636 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. CURRENT PLANS ARE TO ALLOW THE WATCH TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IF DESIRED BY THE LOCAL WFOS. EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN NY SWWD THROUGH ERN PA INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS NE OF THE SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND DISPLACED FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES FARTHER S HAVE VEERED TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING ALONG WITH TENDENCY FOR STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ... 41347279 39887374 38147488 38107593 38967615 40927530 41947385 41957294 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 23 19:07:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2006 15:07:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231904 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SC...S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN NC...SC...NRN/WRN GA...CENTRAL AL. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 231904Z - 232200Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z NEAR AXIS FROM MGM-CAE TO WRN SHORES PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING ATL AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MULTICELL AND PULSE IN NATURE...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY SPORADIC AND LOCALIZED IN FORM OF DOWNBURSTS. SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NC PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND DECELERATE...FROM CENTRAL VA SWWD ACROSS WRN SC TO VICINITY BHM. RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F. DEW POINTS MIXED INTO LOW-MID 60S IN A FEW LOCALES FROM ERN GA TO ERN NC DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...COMBINING WITH WEAK AMBIENT LIFT TO SLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION APPEARS TO BE OFFSETTING THAT EFFECT AND AGAIN ENRICHING NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...AS HEATING INTENSIFIES IN FORMERLY CLOUDY AREAS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATED BAND OF MULTILEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS -- LEFT BEHIND BY ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT -- ERODING AWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE CONCENTRATED MOST DENSELY NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES NEAR FORMER CLOUD EDGES...HOWEVER BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING CINH INDICATES TSTMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM THOSE BOUNDARIES AS WELL. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER MOST OF REGION...KEEPING STORM ORGANIZATION DEPENDENT ON SMALL SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HOWEVER...MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF AREA...ACROSS OH/PA...MAY ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALOFT OVER PORTIONS NC. ..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31988851 32788793 33428675 34638208 35977875 35787622 34427779 33687917 31968477 31388653 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 23 19:34:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2006 15:34:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231931 MNZ000-WIZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/EXTREME NWRN WI/FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231931Z - 232130Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ALONG A WARM FRONT AND/OR SURFACE TROUGH IN NRN MN. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND BAUDETTE TO DETROIT LAKES EWD TO A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT FROM CRANE LAKE TO NEAR DULUTH. AN ISOLATED CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR ORR ALONG THE FRONT. GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES WITH APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SERN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY MIXING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM W TO E IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODIFIED 12Z INL OBSERVED AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES SHOULD MAXIMIZE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE 0-1 KM HELICITY WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH BACKED S/SE SURFACE FLOW. ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46499097 46139235 46189363 46489515 46799653 47919535 48919473 48619351 48489248 48069086 47629028 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 00:55:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2006 20:55:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240053 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/FAR NWRN WI/FAR WRN U.P. OF MI/FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638... VALID 240053Z - 240230Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN MN INTO NWRN WI...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR WRN U.P. OF MI. A FEW TSTMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL MN...AND POTENTIALLY POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW. HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS OF LLJ FURTHER E INTO WARM FRONTAL ZONE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE LOW. SMALL LINEAR CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN MN. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL PASS ALONG THE ERN SIDES OF DULUTH INTO THE FAR WRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR SHORTLY. ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO NWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO POSE A WIND THREAT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN WI. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPED IN SRN MANITOBA ALONG A COLD FRONT...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE PAST HOUR. 00Z INL RAOB INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING TO THE E...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS QUESTIONABLE. THE WW COULD BE CLEARED EARLY IN THIS REGION IF TSTMS DO NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...FGF... 47918941 47308935 46458932 45998973 45939066 46119159 46529252 47119322 48189610 48869814 48959532 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 17:51:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 13:51:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241749 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-241915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...WI..EXTREME SRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...EXTREME NWRN IA...NWRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241749Z - 241915Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL BE REQUIRED...MOSTLY OVER WI. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE INVOF ONTARIO LAKE SHORE OF NERN LS...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN WI...APCHG STC...AND INTO SD NEAR HON. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING...SUCH THAT SBCINH IS NEARLY GONE ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SFC DEW POINTS RANGE THROUGH 60S F TO NEAR 70...LOCALLY MAXIMIZED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS. MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN 12Z MSP RAOB AND PRESENCE OF AREAS OF ACCAS IN VIS IMAGERY...WITH LAPSE RATES APCHG 8 DEG C/KM. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG FROM SERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WSWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...HOWEVER LIFT NEAR FRONT AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL FROM MULTICELL/LINEAR MODES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44569650 45509313 45768850 45658746 45368679 44838678 44328825 43988997 43319487 43399622 43719632 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 20:06:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 16:06:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242004 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NWRN IA...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN MN...W-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242004Z - 242200Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERALL...IN S-CENTRAL/SWRN MN W OF WW 639. ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS ALSO HAVE FORMED OVER SERN SD NW FSD...AND INVOF ONL. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER SD...WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS HON AREA TO BETWEEN STC-MSP. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AIR OVER CENTRAL/NRN IA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE BUT WILL BECOME MORE BUOYANT WITH CONTINUED HEATING. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS ERN MN...10-15 KT OVER SRN MN AND DRIFT ERRATICALLY E OF LOW. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE MOISTURE OVER NRN IA AND SRN MN...TRENDING TOWARD LOWER DEW POINTS IN HOTTER/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NEB/SRN SD WHERE SFC TEMPS ALREADY APCH 100 DEG F MOST AREAS. CONTINUED INSOLATION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN CINH AND...IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR S-CENTRAL SD INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALSO WILL BE STRONGER OVER SAME REGION,...WITH MORE SLY SFC WIND COMPONENT VWP/RUC HODOGRAPHS FROM FSD-ANW. THEREFORE SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL DOES EXIST...MAINLY IN FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND/OR COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42290102 43999965 44979580 44869456 43469297 43199294 42649368 42459565 41559877 40940144 41990283 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 20:32:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 16:32:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242029 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MN...WI...SRN UPPER MI...NRN LM...NWRN LOWER MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639... VALID 242029Z - 242230Z TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO LINEAR CLUSTER ACROSS NRN WI. ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS IN TAYLOR COUNTY WI AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL IN SEVERAL LOCALES. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD THROUGH FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW LAYER OVER WI...BEFORE REACHING RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE MARINE LAYER OVER LM. WLY COMPONENT TO NEAR-SFC FLOW MAY SHUNT MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE SLIGHTLY AND/OR RENDER IT SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO EXTEND OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF E-CENTRAL/NERN WI AS WELL. REMAINS OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS CURRENTLY MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NEWD OVER SRN UPPER MI...MAY APCH PORTIONS NWRN LOWER MI IN 3-4 HOURS. HOWEVER...MARINE LAYER WILL GREATLY REDUCE MLCAPE OVER WATER AND FOR SEVERAL MILES INLAND...LIMITING SVR POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL WI AND SRN MN AMIDST 65-70 F SFC DEW POINTS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 45219293 45749113 45069028 45288844 46008735 45898632 45708557 45218523 44528583 43818694 43268820 43029116 43499125 43499305 44509301 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 23:23:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 19:23:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242320 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242320Z - 250045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SD...SWRN MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN SD IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ABOVE THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NEB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 42479546 42089777 42999860 44019787 44149510 43489444 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 23:44:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 19:44:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242342 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI/SERN MN/PORTION OF LK MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639... VALID 242342Z - 250045Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ISSUED...BUT WFOS MAY EXTEND WATCH LOCALLY IN TIME IF DESIRED. STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL WI. OTHER CELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR E-CNTRL MN AND PRODUCED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE TWIN CITIES AND A 54 KT WIND GUST MEASURED AT STP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS THESE CELLS MOVE FURTHER EWD...THEY WILL PROPAGATE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER MCS THAT IS CROSSING LK MI. WHILE THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT FROM CHISAGO COUNTY MN TO PRICE COUNTY WI. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST WITH THESE CELLS BRIEFLY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT. ..GRAMS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43758765 43258780 43559098 43919275 44939294 45489277 45699105 45488866 45238694 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 00:51:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 20:51:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241749 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-241915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...WI..EXTREME SRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...EXTREME NWRN IA...NWRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241749Z - 241915Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL BE REQUIRED...MOSTLY OVER WI. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE INVOF ONTARIO LAKE SHORE OF NERN LS...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN WI...APCHG STC...AND INTO SD NEAR HON. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING...SUCH THAT SBCINH IS NEARLY GONE ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SFC DEW POINTS RANGE THROUGH 60S F TO NEAR 70...LOCALLY MAXIMIZED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS. MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN 12Z MSP RAOB AND PRESENCE OF AREAS OF ACCAS IN VIS IMAGERY...WITH LAPSE RATES APCHG 8 DEG C/KM. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG FROM SERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WSWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...HOWEVER LIFT NEAR FRONT AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL FROM MULTICELL/LINEAR MODES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44569650 45509313 45768850 45658746 45368679 44838678 44328825 43988997 43319487 43399622 43719632  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 01:04:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 21:04:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242320 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242320Z - 250045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SD...SWRN MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN SD IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ABOVE THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NEB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 42479546 42089777 42999860 44019787 44149510 43489444  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 01:08:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 21:08:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242342 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI/SERN MN/PORTION OF LK MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639... VALID 242342Z - 250045Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ISSUED...BUT WFOS MAY EXTEND WATCH LOCALLY IN TIME IF DESIRED. STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL WI. OTHER CELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR E-CNTRL MN AND PRODUCED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE TWIN CITIES AND A 54 KT WIND GUST MEASURED AT STP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS THESE CELLS MOVE FURTHER EWD...THEY WILL PROPAGATE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER MCS THAT IS CROSSING LK MI. WHILE THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT FROM CHISAGO COUNTY MN TO PRICE COUNTY WI. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST WITH THESE CELLS BRIEFLY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT. ..GRAMS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43758765 43258780 43559098 43919275 44939294 45489277 45699105 45488866 45238694  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 01:13:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 21:13:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242320 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242320Z - 250045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SD...SWRN MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN SD IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ABOVE THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NEB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 42479546 42089777 42999860 44019787 44149510 43489444  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 02:24:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 22:24:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250221 MIZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640... VALID 250221Z - 250345Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN TIP OF LOWER MI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER S. SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD THROUGH EXTREME NRN LOWER MI. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...SWD EXTENTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS LARGELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE WLY LOW LEVEL JET RELATIVE TO THE EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LIMITING DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE. THIS ALONG WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER LOWERS CONFIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER S. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 45078310 44358316 44038371 44148441 44768444 45528365 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 18:27:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 14:27:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251825 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY...NWRN PA...NRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251825Z - 252030Z ISOLATED SVR WIND AND HAIL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC BUT STORMS ARE STRENGTHENING WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS OF NRN NY AND VT. AREA WIND PROFILES WOULD CURRENTLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER WITH TIME CAUSING PROFILES TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. THUS...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH HAIL AND WIND...BUT TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUST REGIME. FARTHER SW...WELL DEFINED SECONDARY VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD ACROSS SW ONTARIO...WITH ASSOCIATED STORM CLUSTER. THIS CLUSTER HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING...BUT MAY REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS E OF LAKE EFFECT BOUNDARY/STABLE ZONE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING E OF THIS ZONE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL AS FAR NWRN PA...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 44967170 44277217 42777497 41807803 41718036 42757967 43277891 44257611 45047481 44997212 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 19:03:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 15:03:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251900 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/PARTS OF WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251900Z - 252030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME SEVERE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL WW. REGIONAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN MANITOBA INTO NERN-SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SRN MANITOBA. AIR MASS ACROSS SERN ND INTO NERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN...WHICH IS ALONG/S OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN GENERALLY NWD ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER...IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SERN ND SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST /30-35 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS...STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EDDY COUNTY ND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM STORM ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER...BUT THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR NERN ND/FAR NWRN MN BORDER SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER NWRN-NRN MN. ..PETERS.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47369957 48159926 48989847 48949714 47539679 46889526 46509458 45159464 44859579 45029758 45439907 46010005 46620007 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 19:35:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 15:35:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251932 AZZ000-252230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 251932Z - 252230Z A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WW COULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS GET ORGANIZED. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL FETCH UP THE GULF OF CA INTO SWRN AZ WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2.00 INCHES. HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN AZ...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD AND SWWD WITH TIME. CONTINUED HEATING COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK IN GENERAL...ELY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY SHIFT SWWD. IN ADDITION...MODIFIED TUS SOUNDING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...PERHAPS AROUND 1.00 INCH DIAMETER. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 32261389 34071250 34121092 33640935 31390955 31311105 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 23:37:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 19:37:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252334 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...MUCH OF IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252334Z - 260130Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO FROM PARTS OF ERN IA AND SPREAD INTO NRN IL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM ERN NEB THROUGH IA MOVING ESEWD. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA. ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS BOOSTED THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41668777 41218886 40909045 40529193 40809246 41819198 42219044 42388854 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 23:43:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 19:43:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252340 COR ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA THROUGH NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252340Z - 260130Z CORRECTED TO REMOVE ERN NEB AND NRN MO FROM MD THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO FROM PARTS OF ERN IA AND SPREAD INTO NRN IL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM ERN NEB THROUGH IA MOVING ESEWD. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA. ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS BOOSTED THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41668777 41218886 40909045 40529193 40809246 41819198 42219044 42388854 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 00:41:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 20:41:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260039 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260039Z - 260245Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH SERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER N CNTRL KS. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY SEPARATING DEEPLY MIXED...HOT...DRYER IN KS AIR FROM THE CLOUDY COOLER REGIME IN NEB/IA EXTENDS ACROSS NRN KS. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS/CONVECTION PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY FORM ERN NEB INTO IA AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN ESEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z RAOB FROM OMAHA SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW E OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN NEB VEERING TO WNWLY 35 KT AT 6 KM IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATION. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB INTO IA...WITH THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE EXPECTED FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH OUTFLOW DOMINANT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...FEED OF DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN STORMS DEVELOPING COLD POOLS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ESEWD PROPAGATING MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 41209362 40239530 40379709 41289741 41859563 42849393 42429303 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 01:04:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 21:04:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260101 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-260230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...NERN SD INTO W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 260101Z - 260230Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WW AREA NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO SERN SD IS MOVING S OF WW 642..BUT ANOTHER WW FARTHER S IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SERN ND INTO PARTS OF ERN SD AND CNTRL MN. THE 00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 37 KT WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NERN SD. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DECREASE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND CAP STRENGTHENS. STORMS FARTHER S ACROSS E CNTRL SD MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE MORE CLOUDY...STABLE REGIME TOWARD EXTREME SERN SD. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44629474 44029751 44579888 45499933 46319845 46409672 45999519 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 02:28:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 22:28:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260225 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-260400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN THROUGH NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643... VALID 260225Z - 260400Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN WI. FARTHER W OTHER STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ACROSS EXTREME ERN MN. THIS LINE MAY POSE A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO WI WHERE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN EXHAUSTED. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG PERIPHERY OF STRATIFORM RAIN AREA FROM NRN WI INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45008747 44769001 45199321 45959302 46559250 46808906 46398738 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 04:14:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 00:14:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260411 AZZ000-260515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645... VALID 260411Z - 260515Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS SPREAD SWWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. TWO LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ONE MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN MARICOPA COUNTY AND ANOTHER MOVING NWD OUT OF EXTREME NRN PINAL COUNTY...ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MERGERS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER NERN MARICOPA COUNTY. STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SWRN AZ WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 100 AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. FLOW ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS RATHER WEAK ELY AT AROUND 10 KT AT 6 KM SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NOT MOVE PARTICULARLY FAST...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33741116 33331129 32461274 32691421 33711355 33621211 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 12:51:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 08:51:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261248 LAZ000-TXZ000-261445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX...CNTRL/SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261248Z - 261445Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. 30+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW...ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 1 KM AGL...IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT. MODELS SUGGEST THESE SURFACE WINDS MAY BEGIN TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY MID MORNING WITH INCREASING SURFACE HEATING/MIXING. HOWEVER... FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS INLAND OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 70S...THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES...AS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BY 15-18Z. ..KERR.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29549442 30449430 31119388 31309286 31119208 30779169 30539101 30409050 29788980 28898921 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 17:26:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 13:26:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261724 NCZ000-SCZ000-261930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...FAR SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261724Z - 261930Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SC...WITHIN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. MODIFIED 12Z CHS SOUNDING YIELDS 2000-2500 MLCAPE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE IS NOT ANY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG HEATING...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THERMALS OVERCOMING RELATIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN 500-600 MB. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY STORMS TOWARD THE SE...WITH THREAT OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST MAINLY ACROSS ERN SC. ..JEWELL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32068083 34328207 35148197 35107986 34247884 33747847 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 20:23:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 16:23:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262019 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-262215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF MT/WRN ND/NWRN AND N CENTRAL SD... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262019Z - 262215Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE OVER NERN MT AS WELL AS SWRN AREAS SWRN ND AND NWRN SD. LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH ML CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT IS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...HIGH BASED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 48980502 48170537 46830480 44970390 44690191 44980037 45509871 46649937 48090076 48950276 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 20:39:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 16:39:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262036 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...FAR SERN WY AND NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262036Z - 262230Z STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR WIND LIKELY. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS WY INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP STORMS FROM SERN WY INTO WRN NEB TO PERSIST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE MARGINAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT PERHAPS SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..JEWELL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41150444 42150505 43110466 42860271 42610059 41699950 41049917 40339976 40040130 40300313 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 21:11:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 17:11:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262108 UTZ000-262315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262108Z - 262315Z ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG LEAD EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN BOX ELDER COUNTY HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED IN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MANNER...THUS STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS SEWD INTO THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA. ..JEWELL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC... 40881397 41751253 40961110 40331208 40551341 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 22:36:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 18:36:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262233 INZ000-ILZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262233Z - 270000Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM NEAR DEC WWD TO 30 WNW SPI AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO W-CNTRL IL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT...NEARER TO WEAK WNW-ESE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE LINE OR WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM UIN TO NEAR MTO. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS ERN MO AND SWRN IL IS HOT AND QUITE MOIST WHICH IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL N OF THIS WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE/WARM FRONT WITH SRH VALUES OF AROUND 250 M2/S2 THROUGH THIS LAYER. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR/ WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39739075 40339079 40979035 41098899 40818807 40058748 39418767 39168829 39188919 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 27 01:38:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 21:38:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270135 INZ000-ILZ000-270300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646... VALID 270135Z - 270300Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING FROM MACON COUNTY NEWD INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY IL. 00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED A DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOIST PROFILE WHICH WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WAS OBSERVED THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY TORNADO THREAT TO DIMINISH AS MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...SUPPORTING COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION. FARTHER TO THE NE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS EXIST N OF LAF...AHEAD OF IL MCS. SRN-MOST STORM WHICH HAS DEVIATED LEFT OF THE MEAN WIND...HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER VERMILLION COUNTY IL. MODIFICATION OF WOLCOTT IND PROFILER FOR THIS STORM MOTION INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTING THAT ANY ADDITIONAL TORNADOES APPEAR UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40819060 41398998 41188815 41278720 41108666 40588653 39838690 39098722 38908751 39379004 39569084 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 01:38:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2006 21:38:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280139 MEZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL INTO NWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 280139Z - 280315Z THROUGH 03-04Z...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF A BMI TO SBN LINE. A GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES EXTENDING FROM ELKHART COUNTY IND SWWD IROQUOIS...FORD AND MCLEAN COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL IL AS OF 0130Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY MOVING 280-290/35 KTS INTO A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFICATION OF 00Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL OH VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND. SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 647 AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWING PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ASIDE FROM THIS...CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS ALONG LLJ INTO LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG TRACK OF MCS WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR... 46836975 47136937 47136888 47026845 46636836 46186873 46076935 46146985 46217006 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 02:13:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2006 22:13:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280213 MNZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648... VALID 280213Z - 280315Z WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z...OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STORMS OVER BECKER AND CASS COUNTIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS OF 0207Z...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. IT APPEARS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DIURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION COUPLED WITH PASSAGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TO THE E ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THESE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THUS...REMAINING PORTION OF WW 648 WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 04Z EXPIRATION TIME. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46759603 47089625 47469617 48059516 47839405 47119337 46389381 46199477  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 15:53:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 11:53:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281553 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-281830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO ERN MD AND DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281553Z - 281830Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO MID 70S...AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE E OF APPALACHIANS WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG FROM ERN MD/DE NWD TO SERN NY. BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN NY/PA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 18Z JUST E OF APPALACHIANS AS THE CURRENT WEAK CINH DISSIPATES. 30-35KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 20-25 KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES/BOWS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE WARM AND WEAK LAPSE RATES UNFAVORABLE FOR OTHER THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ..HALES.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 38757602 39097742 39557734 40397656 42157470 42617396 42867353 42697178 41547151 41387282 38957500 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 18:41:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 14:41:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281841 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-282045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WI AND U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281841Z - 282045Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN U.P. OF MICH. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BY 20Z. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD TO NEAR THE SD/ND/MN CONJUNCTION AT 18Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY EXPANDED/DEEPENED ACROSS NORTHERN WI/WESTERN U.P. OF MICH...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LACK OF APPRECIABLE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPLICATES TIMING/EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...FRONTAL FORCING/ADDITIONAL HEATING IN PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F/...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SREF/RUC GUIDANCE. MODIFIED 12Z MINNEAPOLIS RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...IN PRESENCE OF 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEMI-ISOLATED/LINE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR/SRH IS MODEST IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45378891 45109053 45169265 45759405 46989410 47619330 47829191 47139018 46618818 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 19:23:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 15:23:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281923 AZZ000-282130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AZ MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 281923Z - 282130Z SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE GRAND CANYON. 20-25KT NLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF AZ WITH UPPER LOW ALG NM/AZ CENTRAL BORDER. STORMS WILL MOVE/PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG AND 25-30 KT OF SHEAR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION GIVEN THE NEARLY 2IN OF PW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS CENTRAL AZ...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2/HR WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..HALES.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35461394 36151359 36531283 36451217 36041186 35781174 35421145 34981129 34591085 34341014 34140977 33670915 33030955 33661140 33901298 34181327 34571372 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 20:38:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:38:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO DELAWARE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 282038Z - 282145Z BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT 2030Z FROM WRN MA SWD THRU ERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE CONTINUE MOVING 27035. PRIMARY THREAT HAS BEEN DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LINE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. ..HALES.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ... 42837322 42767008 38197467 38227601 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 20:46:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:46:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282046 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MUCH OF OK/SOUTHERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 282046Z - 282245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MUCH OF OK/SOUTHERN KS. ON THE FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF OK...AND FAR SOUTHERN KS. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG OR HIGHER...MAXIMIZED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MICROBURST/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS...WEAK WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE THREAT RATHER PULSE/ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37120062 37589886 37799670 37249560 35909568 35269578 34199679 33500049 34180121 35440138 36940086 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 22:39:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 18:39:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282239 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-290015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 282239Z - 290015Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH...WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT AND LAKE-ENHANCED PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT...WITH PERSISTENT TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH/NORTHERN LAKE MICH...WESTWARD TO AROUND 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DULUTH. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG -- HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MN -- PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. AIDED BY A MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS...LARGELY ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...SOME WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY EXIST EARLY THIS EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE/SLIGHTLY COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46909445 47279315 47269122 46968864 46288670 45258768 45318965 45509164 45599345 46039425 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 22:55:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 18:55:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282256 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-290030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SD INTO ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282256Z - 290030Z THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS/ IS INCREASING OVER NWRN SD INTO SWRN ND. A POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING FROM S-CNTRL INTO ERN ND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SWRN MT WITH AN ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED EWD NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER...AND A PRESSURE TROUGH TRAILING THIS LOW INTO NERN WY. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 100-110F S OF THIS LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD...WHICH IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CUMULUS/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER HARDING COUNTY SD INTO BOWMAN COUNTY ND. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TO NEAR 600 MB WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN MT/WRN ND COUPLED WITH THIS HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR AND N OF 2WX EWD TO N OF MBG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 40-45 KTS OF MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW ARE RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. A POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 29/03Z N OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM S-CNTRL INTO ERN ND WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LLJ. HERE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE INCREASING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION/CAP WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPES. HERE TOO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45930404 46250367 46740267 47410062 47739934 47999717 47359663 46249681 45829877 45560093 45520355 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 00:34:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 20:34:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290035 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 290035Z - 290200Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH...WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICH AND NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING...NAMELY FOCUSED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND LAKE-ENHANCED PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT. THESE STORMS...INCLUDING BOTH RIGHT AND LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS...HAVE HAD OF HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...INCLUDING A RECENTLY MEASURED GUST OF 42 KTS AT ASHLAND WI /AT 2351Z/. OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...THE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE. THE 00Z OBSERVED MINNEAPOLIS RAOB CAPTURES THE VERY UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE SOURCE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPES ESTIMATED TO BE 1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WW 650...HIGHEST WITH WEST EXTENT. AS SUPPORTED BY DULUTH/MARQUETTE WSR-88D VWPS...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46599325 46729289 47039099 46968864 46258641 45038772 45238935 45459184 45579318 46239351 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 01:16:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 21:16:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290116 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-290245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/W-CNTRL AZ INTO FAR SRN NV INTO SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651... VALID 290116Z - 290245Z SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE OVER WRN PART OF WW 651 /NAMELY MOHAVE COUNTY/ THROUGH 03Z. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND THIS TIME...PERHAPS DEVELOPING WWD INTO PARTS OF CLARK COUNTY NV AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SERN CA. AS OF 01Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM 63 S SGU TO 50 SSE IGM WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 040/25 KTS. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM /EXHIBITING SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ 63 S SGU. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 14 G/KG WHICH WERE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER CIRCULATION ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER WAS RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS WW AREA. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS ACROSS FAR SRN NV INTO SERN CA /WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 102-108F/ REMAINS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR WSWWD PROPAGATION OF WRN AZ MCS. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH WWD EXTENT...STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 36571350 35951311 35191287 34191351 34061469 34221549 34621606 35201620 36181601 36601575 36801492 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 02:07:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 22:07:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290207 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-290300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI INTO E-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 290207Z - 290300Z SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST BEYOND 03Z...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. AS OF 0155Z...DULUTH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN WI MOVING GENERALLY 320/20 KTS. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT REGENERATIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY...PERHAPS WHERE 15-20 KT SWLY LLJ IS IMPINGING ON LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BASED ON DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN UPSTREAM AIR MASS AS OBSERVED BY 00Z MPX SOUNDING /MLCAPES AOA 3000-4000 J/KG/...THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THESE PROCESSES MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 03Z OVER NRN WI INTO E-CNTRL MN. 35-45 KTS OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE SMALL-SCALE BOW STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45839381 46289352 46639248 46799144 46368993 45918902 45238932 44949014 44859177 45009322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 04:47:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 00:47:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290448 MNZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290448Z - 290615Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL SPREAD E OF WW 652 BY 0530Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORMAN INTO MAHNOMEN COUNTIES IN MN ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. THUS FAR...REFLECTIVITY AND IR SATELLITE DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT QUITE WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND RESULTANT CAP /PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/ HAS DILUTED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE AS STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ND. HOWEVER...BASED ON RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 00Z MPX OBSERVED SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT CAPPING WEAKENS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL MN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONGOING ELEVATED STORM COMPLEX FROM E OF BIS TO NEAR AND JUST E OF FAR MAY BEGIN TO INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 47449550 47649534 47659442 47409372 46679298 46009345 45709412 45609458 45699502 45779557 46099565 46399554 46859544 47209552 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 06:04:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 02:04:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290605 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 290605Z - 290700Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN ND AND NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN NRN ND. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN...THE STORM UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE ELEVATED AND THE COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN A STRONGER FRONTAL INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. THIS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUING SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATCH WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45969868 47659877 47779652 48009450 47369390 46189513 45929676 45999803 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 06:11:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 02:11:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290611 COR MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 290611Z - 290700Z CORRECTED FOR MD GRAPHIC ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN ND AND NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN NRN ND. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN...THE STORM UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE ELEVATED AND THE COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN A STRONGER FRONTAL INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. THIS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUING SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATCH WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45969868 47659877 47779652 48009450 47369390 46189513 45929676 45999803 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 06:23:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 02:23:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290624 WIZ000-290730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... VALID 290624Z - 290730Z WW 653 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z...THOUGH STORMS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SEVERE THREAT MAY END BEFORE SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION. LINE OF SWD MOVING STORMS EXTENDED FROM 40 NW OF GRB TO NEAR EAU. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED MESO HIGH THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR AUW. THE STORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOCATED ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH EXTENDED S-N ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE COLD POOL/MESOHIGH MAY STILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THOUGH AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END BY 08Z. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45239255 45899255 46199157 45949016 45468904 44638924 44208931 44279030 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 09:41:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 05:41:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290941 WIZ000-MNZ000-291045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WI AND MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654... VALID 290941Z - 291045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI UNTIL 13Z. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAD MOVED INTO EXTREME NWRN WI AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR ASX TO 70 S DLH. THE LINE WAS MOVING SEWD AT 45 KT AND THE RAPID MOTION OF THE LINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SUGGEST THAT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE WATCH...THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE AND THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE ERN END OF THE WATCH BETWEEN 1100-1200Z. OTHER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN AND WILL BE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HAIL. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 46369517 45948977 44989009 45369526 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 15:59:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 11:59:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291559 NYZ000-MIZ000-291730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEW YORK INTO N CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291559Z - 291730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND AHEAD OF WEAKER IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN. TONGUE OF MOIST AIR ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AND WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT INCREASING... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH FURTHER INSOLATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN SHORTLY...BUT SCATTERED STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN... BUT AS MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...RISK FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST FEW DOWNBURSTS...ENHANCED BY WEAK TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...DTX...APX...GRR... 45148369 45248162 45038020 44707879 44027591 43637488 42207459 42057675 42577947 43148160 43478330 43998482 44758495 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 17:51:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 13:51:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291752 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-291945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN GA AND PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS OF NC AND SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291752Z - 291945Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN GA INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS OF BOTH NC AND SC. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC/SC APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AMPLE INSOLATION/TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S AMIDST A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IS LEADING TO A EROSION OF SURFACE BASED CINH ACROSS EASTERN GA AND PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS OF NC/SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ATTRIBUTABLE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MID LEVEL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE. WSR-88D VWP FROM GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG CAPTURES ENHANCED LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW VIA THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH 25-35 KT WESTERLY WINDS EVIDENT BETWEEN 1-6 KM. THIS MODESTLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS/ORGANIZATION FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SPREADS EASTWARD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/SOME LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34098373 34088251 34988110 36087964 36177815 35777701 34547773 33937891 32898023 32288243 32748352 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 18:50:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:50:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291851 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...SE ND...W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291851Z - 292015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF PIERRE...STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FOCUSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF SURFACE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABERDEEN AND FARGO. INHIBITION IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PERTURBATION CRESTING UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADS REGION. STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 4000 J/KG...AND...AS CAP ERODES...RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH... PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER THROUGH MID LEVELS IS CREATING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS APPEAR A MORE PROMINENT THREAT BY 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46159838 46779665 46589550 45489550 45059653 45539800 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 18:54:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:54:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291855 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL/WESTERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 291855Z - 292100Z STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL INTO WESTERN GA. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS MCV MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN TN INTO FAR NORTHERN MS/NORTHWEST AL. TIED TO THIS FEATURE...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS/GA. THIS BOUNDARY /AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG IT/ WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER UPLIFT/PARCELS REACHING THEIR LFC AND A MODEST FOCUS...WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF AL/EASTERN MS/WESTERN GA. LOCAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THE MCV MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PULSE IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/SOME LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT/SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32418482 32278636 32698884 34278927 34168796 34168629 33998450 33468375 32698381 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 20:17:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 16:17:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292018 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/FAR WESTERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292018Z - 292215Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/FAR WESTERN KY. ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TENNESSEE VALLEY MCV...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS/RESIDUAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY SOUTH-NORTH ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM NEAR QUINCY IL...TO NEAR ST LOUIS...TO AROUND FARMINGTON MO. THE AIRMASS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR IS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 3000-4000 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK /20 KTS OR LESS PER ST LOUIS AND PADUCAH WSR-88D VWPS/...THE HIGH INSTABILITY REGIME AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38759190 40199144 40039050 37508872 36538901 35419084 36919178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 20:52:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 16:52:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292052 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN NY...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...656... VALID 292052Z - 292215Z CONTINUE WWS 655 AND 656. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED. A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH/ SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 25 TO 35 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS SHOULD INCREASE EAST OF BUFFALO THROUGH AROUND 22Z. AND...THOUGH CAPE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH TEMPS AROUND 90F/ AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH LEAD CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43387712 43037581 42867464 41717350 41237342 41017429 41547566 42017715 42807805 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 21:59:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 17:59:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292159 GAZ000-ALZ000-292330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292159Z - 292330Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH 00Z...INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM TO AROUND ALEXANDER CITY/SELMA/MONTGOMERY. WHILE MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AL...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL HAS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF AL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS DRIVING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR AS OF 2145Z. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING MEASURED GUSTS OF 48 KTS AT BIRMINGHAM AROUND 21Z...WITH A 37 KT GUST AT TUSCALOOSA AT 2106Z. FURTHER SE PROPAGATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TOWARD THE ALEXANDER CITY/SELMA/MONTGOMERY VICINITIES...VIA 15 KTS OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 32248589 32298764 32648822 33148796 33408669 33718569 33288518 32388519 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 30 22:32:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2006 18:32:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302233 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-310030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN OH...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL...NWRN PA...EXTREME WRN NY...LE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661... VALID 302233Z - 310030Z OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA...BUT STILL REMAINS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN OH AHEAD OF REMNANT MCS AND ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MCS HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER LE AND SERN ONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND LESS DIABATICALLY HEATED LAKE AIR. HOWEVER...FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. THIS POTENTIAL EXTENDS FROM ERN PORTIONS WW ACROSS WRN PA AND WRN-MOST NY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES THROUGH 00Z WILL TREND FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN CENTRAL OH TO 1000 J/KG OVER SWRN UPSTATE NY. TSTMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY -- IN AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY CMH...CLE...YNG...PIT -- MAY BRIEFLY PULSE INTENSELY ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WIND...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS OF 22Z...WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE LINE CLE...20 WSW TOL...20 NNW FWA...LAF...10 NE DNV...45 SSW ORD. SLGT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THAT PORTION WHICH HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN INDIANA AND NWRN OH. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE...GIVEN WEAK FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY. FARTHER W...MULTICELL TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD ALONG OR JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED/MRGL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41228816 40668742 40678562 41328286 42148188 42517976 42917890 42957892 43067901 43287906 43397848 42807832 41787873 40618060 40148068 40158216 39868222 39878241 39548254 39568286 39798284 39798324 40088322 40098351 40218352 40258398 40178437 40368445 40188716 40198812 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 00:08:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2006 20:08:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310009 NDZ000-MTZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MT...NWRN ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310009Z - 310145Z CAP HAS BROKEN ACROSS NERN MT N-NE OF OLF...WITH RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION UNDERWAY AS OF 2350Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH MAY REMAIN S OF CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE INTO NWRN ND. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH AREA OF CONUS AFFECTED WOULD BE RELATIVELY SMALL. SFC DATA AND GGW LOW-DBZ REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE QUASISTATIONARY AND NE-SW ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BAND FROM SERN VALLEY COUNTY NEWD ACROSS WRN SHERIDAN COUNTY MT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL GIVEN VERY LIGHT/NELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES WITH 55-65 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATED. DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTIONS FOR MATURE STORMS WOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OVER NARROW AREA JUST S OF CANADIAN BORDER INTO NWRN ND...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO CROSS INTO CANADA BEFORE SUCH RIGHTWARD TURN. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY BUOYANT...AS SFC DEW POINTS AND MLCAPES EACH INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO OFFSET EFFECTS OF WEAKENING DIABATIC HEATING. MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT BASED ON MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS FROM RUC MODEL. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS POLEWARD OF SFC FRONT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS STILL WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF GUSTS/HAIL TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48990134 48510218 48220355 48240473 48450565 49010442 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 01:56:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2006 21:56:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310157 MNZ000-NDZ000-310400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL-NERN ND...PORTIONS NWRN MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310157Z - 310400Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS REGION...FURTHER ORGANIZING SVR THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. INITIALLY ELEVATED AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY AND INTO MUCH MORE ROBUST SFC-BASED ACTIVITY NW BIS...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN BIS-DVL...EACH N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR BIS...CLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS HARDING COUNTY SD...WARM FRONT ENEWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30 N FAR. NWD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH CINH APPEARS LARGE FOR SFC BASED PARCELS N OF FRONT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS DO REACH SFC BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY -- MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG -- IS SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F. ONLY SLOW DIABATIC SFC COOLING IS EXPECTED...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PROFILES -- I.E. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MOST AREAS -- INDICATE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE TSTMS...AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE. STRONGEST LLJ WILL REMAIN FARTHER E ACROSS NRN MN/LS REGION. HOWEVER...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY JUST N OF FRONT...WHERE NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENLARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH. ..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47589894 47370068 47150181 47450237 48450170 48990003 48959628 47689642 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 06:29:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 02:29:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310629 MNZ000-310800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL/NERN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310629Z - 310800Z STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM NWRN MN INTO THE FAR SRN PARTS OF NWRN ONTARIO...AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF N CENTRAL/NERN MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN MN WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE CAPPING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD CONFINE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE MN BORDER COUNTIES OF KOOCHICHING/NRN ST LOUIS/NRN LAKE AND COOK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SUGGESTING LIMITED OVERALL SWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF 45-50 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY LARGE CAPE INDICATES STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN MN WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..WEISS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47849399 48109444 48689448 48569302 48249086 47998944 47558955 47439106 47709324 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 11:58:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 07:58:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311159 MNZ000-WIZ000-311400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 311159Z - 311400Z EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN MN/ONTARIO BORDER HAVE MOVED EWD AND WEAKENED ACCORDING TO RADAR/IR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA...AS A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGED SEWD WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A STRONG CAP. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THIS REGION. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE WW 663 MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 14Z. ..WEISS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH... 46899080 46829180 46949258 47329312 48199297 48529270 48309138 48058978 47928942 47039004 46729037 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 18:11:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 14:11:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311812 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-312015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 311812Z - 312015Z HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED IN A POST FRONTAL BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD BECOME EXCESSIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS GRADUALLY EVOLVES. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS FROM BEMIDJI/THIEF RIVER FALLS SOUTHWARD THROUGH FARGO/ABERDEEN...PERHAPS CHAMBERLAIN SD BY 21-22Z. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN...BUT PRECIPITATION LOADING AND LOWER LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONG CELLS. AS ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES...GUST FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW COULD STRENGTHEN AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. ..KERR.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44689920 45819863 47549695 48489489 47989322 47229390 46889452 46049650 45539695 45159738 44269845 43609945 44179934 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 22:37:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 18:37:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312238 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN-CENTRAL-NERN NEB...SWRN MN...SERN SD...NWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312238Z - 010115Z TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN NE-SW ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM SW MN TO NW KS...WITH ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED DAMAGING WIND AMD MRGL SVR HAIL EVENTS PSBL. POTENTIAL SHOULD PEAK BEFORE SUNSET THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL MN...NEAR SW EDGE WW 664...SWWD NEAR LINE FROM MHE...OGA...LIC...AS OF 22Z. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SEWD 10-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA...GRADUALLY OVERTAKING PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND CONFLUENCE LINE THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM LAA...BBW...40 SE ANW. LIFT ALONG FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...AS WELL AS INTENSE SFC HEATING WITH WARM SECTOR TEMPS AOA 100 F...IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL OCCUR LOCALLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS. DEEP LAYER OF 20-40 KT LOW LEVEL SWLY/SSWLY FLOW IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF FRONT...HOWEVER WEAKER MIDLEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO VERY SMALL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FCST SLOW STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO FRONT/TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT -- INDICATES EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL REGIME WITH MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY BEING UNDERCUT BY FRONTS/OUTFLOWS...AND RELATIVELY SHORT LIFESPAN FOR ANY GIVEN TSTM OR SMALL CLUSTER. MLCAPES NOW IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE -- BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 1Z WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. ..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD... 38950169 41000169 45699570 43909572 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 23:18:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 19:18:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312319 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NY AND VT/NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312319Z - 010115Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NY INTO PORTIONS OF VT/NH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IN EXTREME EASTERN ONTARIO NEAR OTTAWA...WITH ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR A WARM FRONT...WITH FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED AS TSTMS SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST NY AND PORTIONS OF VT/NH TONIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MODESTLY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. AS CAPTURED VIA THE BURLINGTON VT WSR-88D VWP...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES /VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL SCALE BOWS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43747569 44417592 45307399 45127172 44827129 43827156 43627257 43347458 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 02:15:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2006 22:15:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010216 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564... VALID 010216Z - 010245Z NEW WW FOR NERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD INTO MUCH OF MN IS VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM W-E IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SRN MOST STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND WERE MOVING ESE AND SHOULD ENTER PARTS OF NERN SD DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THUS...GIVEN THIS TREND AND EXISTENCE OF AN UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INCLUDING NERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE S OF WW 564 SUPPORTS THE DECISION FOR A NEW WW. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 48229984 49009942 48989596 49299489 48579434 46439440 44699468 44659546 44579670 44589791 44719899 45199947 45779961 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 04:11:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 00:11:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010412 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...565... VALID 010412Z - 010545Z THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN WW/S 564 AND 565. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT WITHIN WW 565 SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM ROBERTS COUNTY SD TO TODD COUNTY MN. ASCENT AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ONGOING CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY NOW OVER ERN ND/NERN SD. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD IN MN PER 40-45 KT MOVEMENT OF BOW ECHO WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM RICHLAND COUNTY ND INTO NWRN ROBERTS COUNTY SD. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REACH WRN MN COUNTIES OF OTTER TAIL...GRANT AND DOUGLAS BETWEEN 05-06Z. FARTHER N...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED IN INTENSITY...BUT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44559464 44449870 45449884 45939983 46369987 46569916 47309873 48319903 48749889 48969779 49299467 48229459 46149441 45089423 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 05:44:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 01:44:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010544 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN EXCEPT EXTREME SRN PORTION...PARTS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL WI...EXTREME SWRN ALS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564...565... VALID 010544Z - 010715Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS -- IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD NWRN WI THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z. SLIGHT SWD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BUT MOST SUSTAINED MOTION SHOULD BE EWD...GIVEN PROGGED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS MOTION VECTORS. ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE GRADUALLY...WITH EWD EXTENT...LEADING TO SLOW DECREASE IN SVR THREAT EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/ERN WI. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD POOL EVIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL STORM SCALE ASCENT...WHILE INFLOW LAYER WILL MOISTEN SLIGHTLY BASED ON RUC/WRF FCST MOIST ADVECTION AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSES AT 850-925 MB LEVELS UPSTREAM. THEREFORE MCS MIGHT SHIFT FARTHER E ACROSS WI THAN CURRENT ANALYSES OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY FIELDS INDICATE. MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG -- NOW EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MN -- WILL LESSEN TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL/ERN WI...BUT ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME OVER LATTER AREA UNTIL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY PASSES. MEANWHILE SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS NERN ND/NWRN MN...AND WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING ATOP OUTFLOW-REINFORCED/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATTER TSTMS WILL PERSIST IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA...FROM ERN PORTIONS SD/ND BORDER INTO WRN MN. PORTIONS EXISTING WWS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL SCHEDULED 7Z EXPIRATION. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEHIND PRIMARY MCS IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME...HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF SVR THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46059964 46259834 47149760 48149821 48489856 48939722 48619438 47609231 46359027 45058989 44069109 44989779 45899970 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 07:50:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 03:50:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 010751 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010750 MNZ000-WIZ000-010915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MN...NWRN WI...EXTREME WRN LS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566... VALID 010750Z - 010915Z REMAINS OF FORMERLY SVR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD 40-50 KT ACROSS AND OUT OF ERN PORTION WW AREA OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELEVATED TSTMS -- FORMING IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP MCS OUTFLOW -- MAY PULSE BRIEFLY TO NEAR SVR LEVELS WITH HAIL. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY KEEPING MOST OF WW THROUGH SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. 60 KT GUST MEASURED AT BRD AT 631Z WITH LEADING MCS NOW APCHG DLH AREA. HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS BUOYANT PROFILE. SCATTERED TSTMS FARTHER N ACROSS ST LOUIS COUNTY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STG GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EWD OVER WRN/NRN ARROWHEAD REGION...INCLUDING BOUNDARY WATERS AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE NEAR SFC AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...PRIND ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED...EITHER OVER ARROWHEAD...LS OR NRN WI. ..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 48519261 48599282 48439327 48359369 46249524 46189633 45919643 45529618 45429460 45689255 46719085 48048951 48038977 47978997 48099003 48099072 48259088 48079139 48079159 48209173 48269202 48379209 48279236 48459250 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 16:30:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 12:30:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011631 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-011900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ME/NRN NH/NRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011631Z - 011900Z WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NRN ME SWWD INTO NRN PARTS OF NH AND VT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE NEEDED. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN QUEBEC IS ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -21C AT 500 MB/ ARE RESULTING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 60 KT APPROACHING NRN ME IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY INCREASE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER CELLS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE SUGGESTS WATCH WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 44597323 45067235 45297101 46057023 47166943 47346843 47066773 45996776 45286795 44496890 44037052 43897203 44047311 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 17:58:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 13:58:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011758 MIZ000-WIZ000-012000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI/NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011758Z - 012000Z CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM NEAR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WSWWD INTO FAR NWRN WI. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH BY 19-20Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN UPR MI INTO FAR NWRN WI NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND NWRN ONTARIO. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER NERN WI/ERN UPR MI HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80-85F RANGE ALONG AN AXIS NEAR THE FRONT. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...SBCAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED 1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46049168 46568990 47098792 47078662 46458523 45888539 45218648 45088823 45019020 45089149 45669193 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 19:13:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 15:13:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 011914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011913 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MT/NCNTRL THROUGH NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011913Z - 012115Z LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF MT THROUGH NCNTRL WY...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ID IMPULSE. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM MT/WY INDICATE MID LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF RIVERTON/LANDER IS E/SELY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 42610520 42950877 46340950 47880950 48760875 48940675 48730510 44660395 43060394 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 20:11:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 16:11:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012011 MIZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPR MI...NRN LOWER MI...NRN LAKE MI...NRN LAKE HURON CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012011Z - 012145Z A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER MI...AND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 567 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z EAST OF WW 567 COVERING THE REMAINDER OF ERN UPR MI...NRN LOWER MI...AND PARTS OF NRN LAKE MI AND NRN LAKE HURON. RADAR INDICATES THE STORMS ACROSS UPR MI HAVE DEVELOPED SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE LEWPS/BOW STRUCTURES INDICATING AN INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... 44288677 45248630 46298542 46588484 46518409 46208381 45488329 44608325 44188350 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 20:43:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 16:43:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012043 MIZ000-WIZ000-012245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...UPR MI...NRN/CENTRAL WI...NRN LAKE MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... VALID 012043Z - 012245Z STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING IN A BAND FROM ERN UPR MI SWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BAND FROM TAYLOR INTO OCONTO COUNTIES IN WI. THE STORM IN WRN OCONTO COUNTY HAS ACQUIRED SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS... WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. ALL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD INTO A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID/UPPER 60S/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STRONG 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI IS ENHANCING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE EWD 30-35 KT. ..WEISS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... 44259011 44619074 45229086 45679023 46178807 46588667 46818540 46788492 45578590 44048688 43808729 44048939 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 21:23:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 17:23:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012123 IAZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012123Z - 012200Z WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL IA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN TO WRN IA. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OVER SRN MN INTO NRN IA SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...MODERATE SHEAR /SFC-6 KM 20-25 KT/ FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IA WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD... 42629503 43459432 43479143 42919114 41989136 41789312 41929492 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 21:44:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 17:44:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012144 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-012315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012144Z - 012315Z ...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED NEXT 1-2 HOURS... AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN FROM ERN WY THROUGH SW SD INTO CNTRL NEB AS TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MODIFIED 12Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING YIELDS AROUND 2300 J/KG MLCAPE. LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM NORTH PLATTE NEB INDICATES ELY SFC FLOW UNDERNEATH AROUND 30-40 KT OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SFC FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SW NEB INTO NW IA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER IN DECATUR COUNTY...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE SITUATION. ..TAYLOR.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 40880425 41470677 44850648 45140225 44340157 43040137 41040230 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 1 23:35:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 19:35:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 012335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012335 WIZ000-ILZ000-020000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012335Z - 020000Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR SRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG STORM OVER NERN IA /WINNESHIEK COUNTY/ WITH CURRENT MOVEMENT ENE INTO SWRN WI BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED NEWD INTO SWRN-NERN WI. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG/ WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THUS...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED TO THE EAST OF WW 569 AND SOUTH OF WW 567. ..PETERS.. 07/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43479114 44058971 44008773 42558786 42478915 42549052 43099081 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 00:32:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 20:32:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020032 WIZ000-ILZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...571... VALID 020032Z - 020200Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS NEWLY ISSUED WW 571. FARTHER N...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 02Z IN VALID PART OF WW 567 IN EAST CENTRAL WI AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES ESE OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI BETWEEN 02-03Z. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR /SINCE 2345Z/ FROM CENTRAL TO SWRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY FORMED ALONG AN EWD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT ENCOUNTERED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ ACROSS SRN WI. ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SPREADS EWD. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT/ IS SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42529039 43269046 43629099 43838989 44178921 44558844 44828737 44798674 43868712 43298708 42478704 42478950 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 00:40:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 20:40:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020041 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... VALID 020041Z - 020215Z ...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 570 CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HELPED INITIATE NEW STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST LARAMIE COUNTY...A FEW MILES N/NW OF CHEYENNE. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS SE WY...THOUGH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LARAMIE MTNS MAY YIELD A BRIEF STRONG/SVR STORM IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS ACROSS SW SD HAVE MERGED INTO A SMALL COMPLEX AND SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. 00Z SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE INDICATES ENVIRONMENT IS STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...SO IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL RIDE DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS NOT STRONG...BUT SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORMS THIS EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41070178 41130522 41420557 43490536 43890433 44070366 43710208 42300174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 01:02:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 21:02:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020102 MIZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 020102Z - 020200Z LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. DESPITE A FEW STRONG STORMS EARLIER ACROSS NRN LOWER MI...MOST OF THE STORMS THAT MOVED ESEWD ACROSS LAKE MI HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION...AIR MASS ACROSS LOWER MI HAS REMAINED AND CONTINUES TO BE MORE STABLE THAN THE AIR MASS TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN WI. THUS... GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY BY THE LOCAL WFO. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR... 44818717 45028468 46328249 46268146 45268236 44218237 44048404 44148686 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 02:27:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 22:27:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020227 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-020330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI / WRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 020227Z - 020330Z SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 571. STORMS... POTENTIALLY SEVERE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN PART OF SRN LOWER MI. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATED DIMINISHING STORM INTENSITIES WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN WI WHICH APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A DECREASING TREND IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT 30 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WI DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...TWO STORMS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI APPROACHING MANISTEE/MASON COUNTIES IN SRN LOWER MI HAVE TENDED TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY. LESS AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS A MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR A NEW WW...BUT ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE CROSSING LAKE MI MAY REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE PER SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-50 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42809112 43968908 44208831 44258731 44248663 44258583 44218496 42858468 42298546 42479047 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 03:09:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2006 23:09:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 020310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020309 ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND CENTRAL/SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020309Z - 020445Z ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEB INTO CENTRAL/SRN IA...WITH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO SWRN IA TO JUST NORTH OF THE KS/NEB BORDER. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ /25 KT/ WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN OK INTO SRN-SERN NEB/SRN IA IS RESULTING IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IA AT THIS TIME. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /30-35 KT/...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40759977 41369985 41769968 42039853 42059737 42159606 42349445 42479333 42669229 42779120 42509065 42049058 41589168 41109425 40989564 40649769 40429959 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 20:57:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 16:57:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022057 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-022230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA AND WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022057Z - 022230Z MONITORING PORTIONS OF NRN MO...SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO...JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES A CLOUDY AREA TO THE NORTH AND STRONG HEATING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAKLY CAPPED. IN ANY EVENT..UNSURE HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL. QUESTION OF COVERAGE MAKES WATCH UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY. HOWEVER..IF STORMS APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED. ..IMY.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40899534 41389262 41169111 40519024 39649011 39109106 39309276 40039538 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 21:25:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 17:25:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022125 UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-022330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ORE/SRN ID/NERN NV/NW UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022125Z - 022330Z ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY SRN PORTIONS OF ID AND THE ERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM NRN CA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG/ WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE PLATEAU THROUGH MAGIC VALLEY AND NW UT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 35-40 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS. BACKED ELY WINDS WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...MFR... 40371503 42231971 43621944 43991671 43501472 42951219 41671212 40311347 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 22:29:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 18:29:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022229 NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...AZ/SRN CA/ERN NM/SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022229Z - 030030Z ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE NUMEROUS... SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS AFTN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND CHIRICAHUA MTNS OF SE AZ. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 30-35 KTS. WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT FROM REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR DATA JUST SW OF FLG TO AROUND 35 SSW OF SOW. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE REINFORCED BY NEW TSTMS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS AFTN. ADDITIONALLY STORMS ARE FORMING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS AND ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS IN SRN CA...WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IS HIGHER IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH LATEST DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1400-2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... 31240914 31631221 33401677 35141640 36491522 36951119 35830923 35060850 32710855 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 22:43:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 18:43:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022243 NYZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN CT...SRN VT...WRN MA...PA...NJ...MD...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...573... VALID 022243Z - 030015Z LINEAR TSTM COMPLEX HAS PRODUCED AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ARCING FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SWWD ACROSS NRN NJ/SERN PA. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF INTENSE ACTIVITY INITIATED EARLIER NEAR LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DC AREA. EXPECT COMPLEX ACROSS ERN PA AND NRN NJ TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO INSTABILITY AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS. MORE ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY EWD TO SWRN VT. WHILE THESE STORMS EXIST IN AN UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME. BOTH WATCH 572 AND 573 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FORM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39897376 38967874 40517902 41207741 42807550 43517304 43067235 42367299 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 2 23:49:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 19:49:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 022349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022348 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CT...MA...ME...NH...RI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575... VALID 022348Z - 030115Z TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND SUB-SEVERE ACROSS WATCH 575 SO FAR. STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND APPROACHING FRONT HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO NRN ME AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATED THAT INSTABILITY AXIS WAS SITUATED FROM MA/SRN NH NEWD INTO WRN ME AND COULD STILL FUEL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 575 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALSO HINDER ROBUST TSTM DEVELOP. THEREFORE... PORTIONS OF WATCH 575 ARE LIKELY TO BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 41697072 41697365 45077177 45046923 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 00:48:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 20:48:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030048 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-030215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574... VALID 030048Z - 030215Z ...SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SD AND WY. ISOLD SVR THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS NEB PANHANDLE... SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ACROSS SW SD...INCLUDING RECENT STORM OVER SHANNON COUNTY. THIS STORM PRODUCED A 42 KT WIND GUST AT PINE RIDGE /KIEN/ OVER AN HOUR AGO...AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS JUST EAST OF KIEN WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ACROSS SHANNON COUNTY. SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS SD HAS DIMINISHED AS MOST STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES IN NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL BASED ON 00Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING...SO WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FARTHER EAST. EXTRAPOLATION FROM LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS REMAINING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF WW 574...MAINLY THE NEB PANHANDLE. THERE ARE ALSO STRONG STORMS IN NERN CO THAT POSE AN ISOLD SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THAT REGION. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40210193 40020371 41470378 43190265 43750110 43750033 43309986 42249997 41220031 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 02:59:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 02 Jul 2006 22:59:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 030300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030259 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...IL...IND...OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030259Z - 030530Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE... WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A STRONG WIND GUST...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AND ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONGEST ACTIVITY AT PRESENT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS ECNTRL IL...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS FORMING OVER PARTS OF NWRN IND. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENCE/RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS. FARTHER WEST...ACROSS IA...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY SUBSIDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED/WEAK CELLS NORTH AND EAST OF DSM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED ASCENT. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 40508128 40058202 39698460 39768830 41049370 41539349 41979243 41028697 40878280 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 11:42:03 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 07:42:03 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031142 LAZ000-TXZ000-031445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX AND EXTREME SWRN LA. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 031142Z - 031445Z HAZARD FROM HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER PORTIONS GALVESTON/CHAMBERS/LIBERTY COUNTIES...SHIFTING/EXPANDING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS SAN JACINTO/HARDIN/POLK/TYLER COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL 3 INCH/HOUR RATES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST CORES. MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES ALSO WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ISOLATED RATES TO AROUND 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED EWD TOWARD SABINE RIVER. AS OF 1125Z...TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SWRN CORNER GALVESTON COUNTY SSWWD TO AROUND 55 SE PSX...AND TO SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE IN A SEPARATE CLUSTER FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY NWWD THROUGH LIBERTY COUNTY. ALL THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS AREAS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING GLS BAY AND FROM NRN SHORE OF BAY NEARLY TO LFK...AND EWD TO SABINE RIVER AREA BETWEEN BPT-LCH. PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS IS BUILDING IN ZONE OF VERY WEAK CAPPING INVOF SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS AND INVERTED TROUGH NOW ANALYZED FROM LIBERTY COUNTY SSWWD TO NEAR BUOY 42019...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND INLAND. ALREADY VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME EXTREMELY SO WITH TIME...AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION IN TSTMS. ANALYSIS OF GPS DERIVED MOISTURE DATA BETWEEN GLS-LCH INDICATES ONSHORE PW VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER VALUES LIKELY OFFSHORE BASED ON SFC BUOY DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG FROM GLS BAY SWD OVER GULF AND EWD TO VICINITY BPT. DEPTH OF SUPERFREEZING LAYER -- ALMOST TO 500 MB FOR HIGHEST-THETAE LIFTED PARCEL -- AND LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM-CLOUD BUOYANCY ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATION. ..EDWARDS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28759533 29399505 29899494 30519512 30929503 31049447 30929389 30499361 30069356 29709373 29629392 29449436 28909482 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 15:38:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 11:38:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031538 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NY/PA/NRN NJ/CT/RI/MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031538Z - 031745Z SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING WITHIN AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS SRN NY AND PARTS OF NRN PA. CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF AGITATION...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE CATSKILLS...WHERE TCU ARE DEVELOPING. DESPITE THE LACK OF A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH TIME WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE AIRMASS. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WNWLY FLOW...WHICH INCREASES WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 40 KT AT MID LEVELS -- SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION. THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS INDICATED -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SMALL-SCALE LINES. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 44027618 43657517 42417100 41547091 40487250 40057819 40387978 41158007 42867870 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 17:34:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 13:34:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031734 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-031930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA/PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031734Z - 031930Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SHENANDOAH AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING DOWNSTREAM...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A SMALL-SCALE LINE ACROSS WRN VA...MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 25 KT. AREA VWPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...BUT ONLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. NONETHELESS... TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN VA AND INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN NC...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS IS RESULTING IN MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG -- WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION STILL TO OCCUR. GIVEN DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE IN THIS SCENARIO. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38117862 37947767 37257603 36187592 35667617 35307791 36157943 37438085 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 18:53:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 14:53:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031853 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN...CNTRL AND NRN WI...WRN UPR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031853Z - 032030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN IA. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DESTABILIZE AIRMASS /MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL AID INITIATION/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS AND ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS/. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44639336 45659131 46318986 45878755 44468896 43499162 43439455 43979475 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 19:07:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 15:07:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 031908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031907 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-032100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/NCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031907Z - 032100Z ...STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CNTRL IA AND ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH NCNTRL IL... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IA...WITH ELEVATED STORMS/CLOUDS ACROSS NRN MO AND AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD SOUTH AND WEST OF DSM. WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES...A STORM HAS FORMED NEAR AUDUBON...AND IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IMMINENT. ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THIS CLEAR ZONE HAS DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. SLATER IA PROFILER SHOWS STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH AROUND 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTRL IL...STORMS HAVE LIKELY BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDING FROM DAVENPORT IA SUGGESTS INHIBITION HAS ERODED...AND SFC BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/SVR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40219107 40059434 40379513 41689511 41799316 41858873 41538764 40498771 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 20:22:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 16:22:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032022 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL EWD INTO CENTRAL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032022Z - 032145Z AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBTLE/GENERALLY E-W AXES OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH AND INDIANA. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70 ARE RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL OH TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS W CENTRAL INDIANA ATTM. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SEVERAL OF THESE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXES...WITH MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS W CENTRAL OH WHERE A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS EXIST. THESE TWO OH STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL OH. HOWEVER...ANY STORM INITIATION FURTHER W SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE -- GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40288182 40788364 41028635 40078862 39298785 39138218 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 20:55:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 16:55:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032054 NCZ000-VAZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 032054Z - 032230Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN VA -- WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT EXPANDING SEWD AHEAD OF STORMS. CONVECTION HAS NOT ORGANIZED/INTENSIFIED AS ANTICIPATED...THOUGH STORMS ARE NOW APPROACHING AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE INTO THIS MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...OVERALL LACK OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 37597756 37497708 36497563 35057686 35737844 36417902 36757831 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 21:04:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 17:04:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032104 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NY/NERN PA/SRN VT/WRN MA/CT/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577... VALID 032104Z - 032230Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND MAY SPREAD E OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NRN NY. MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NY AND VICINITY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ATTM. STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH SEVERAL RECENT STORM SPLITS NOTED. ALONG WITH ONGOING HAIL/WIND THREAT ACROSS WW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. WITH NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN NY E OF LAKE ONTARIO...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 45147506 44917395 43437341 42647225 41007238 41017446 41417711 43437719 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 22:03:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 18:03:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032202 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MT/MUCH OF WY/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032202Z - 040000Z ...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MANY STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER MT THIS AFTN...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 35 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS MT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. ACROSS WY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...INSTABILITY IS GREATER. LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW/MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LATEST BILLINGS RADAR INDICATING SUPERCELLS FORMING ACROSS STILLWATER AND SWEET GRASS COUNTIES WEST OF BIL. ISOLD LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 41720545 42260770 42890903 45081143 45891226 46931073 47110882 46750666 46220505 45170300 43020239 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 3 23:58:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 19:58:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 032359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032358 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...IA...ERN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...580... VALID 032358Z - 040130Z COLD FRONT ARCING FROM UPPER MI ACROSS CNTRL WI AND INTO NCNTRL IA ATTM WILL CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIR MASS. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER UPPER MI AND NERN WI...NEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ON THE FRONT FROM WCNTRL WI...ACROSS EXTREME SERN MN...AND OVER NCNTRL IA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS LOCALLY MERGING INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. SITUATION ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW 581...FROM SWRN IA ACROSS NRN IL...REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF MCS DEBRIS/AND OUTFLOW AIR MASS OVER WRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF IA...AND WEAK FRONTAL/CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED WAVE NEAR THE MS RIVER. STORMS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO WRN IL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHEAR IS ALSO WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTING THAT WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL DOMINATE UNTIL STRONGER FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41478758 40859498 43229499 44369026 45889018 46158655 43508748 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 4 00:33:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 20:33:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040034 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-040200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 040034Z - 040200Z BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS WRN PORTION OF WW 581 AND EXTENDS FROM SW OF VPZ TO BMI. GUSTS TO NEAR 50KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT WHILE MOVING INTO NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AIR MASS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN IL TO WRN OH WAS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. DESPITE SOME DIURNAL COOLING...RELATIVELY STEEP 850-700MB LAPSE RATES NOTED ON ILX SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ENEWD ATOP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY MAINTAIN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS. ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...FROM ERN IND ACROSS WRN OH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OH RIVER TOWARD WV. OUTFLOW REINFORCED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THESE AREAS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 39618250 40158927 41708860 41718545 41468472 41498337 41168258 40528254 40568215 39908216 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 4 03:34:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 03 Jul 2006 23:34:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 040335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040335 MIZ000-040530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040335Z - 040530Z CHANCE FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO SMALL FOR A WATCH. STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI OFF LAKE MI AT ABOUT 30KT. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WAS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI TO MAINTAIN STOUT STORM UPDRAFTS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. FURTHERMORE... CLOUD-BEARING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40KT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORM SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. CORRIDOR OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE APPEARS TO BE FROM LDM AREA EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NCNTRL PORTION OF LOWER MI...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE THUMB AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF A LONGER-LIVED AND LARGER SCALE BOW ECHO/WIND THREAT DOES EVOLVE...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43688265 43218473 42968630 43158716 43658698 44258583 44438501 44508351 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 14:43:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 10:43:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101442 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0942 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO ERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101442Z - 101615Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S THIS MORNING ACROSS OH INTO WRN PARTS OF PA/NY...SUPPORTING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG. TSTMS ONGOING ALONG THE SRN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NRN OH INTO WRN PA/NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT VWPS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ WILL EXIST OVER ERN OH INTO WRN PA. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40368292 40878279 41698133 42108015 43117889 43397833 43397764 43157722 42177731 40987881 40457995 40038121 39878251 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 14:59:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 10:59:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101459 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101459 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-101630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101459Z - 101630Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM JUST E OF MWN TO APPROXIMATELY 65 NNW BGR. 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH VT/NH. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV... 45866780 45216788 44566958 43917117 44107172 44597168 45137109 45916957 46286874 46406820 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 18:30:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 14:30:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101829 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 101829Z - 102100Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SVR MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN MO. MEANWHILE...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN A BIT AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS CELLS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. FARTHER S...ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED WITH SCATTERED STORMS FORMING WITHIN HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING MECHANISM IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WITH PULSE TO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. CURRENT GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND WEAK WIND PROFILES SUPPORT BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN. ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN... 36719260 35779327 34899547 33499766 33359875 33479921 34109933 35849866 36939829 37779784 38059547 37969371 37689261 37079252 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 19:48:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 15:48:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101948 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-102045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... VALID 101948Z - 102045Z THROUGH 22Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS FROM NERN PA /20 NE OF FKL/ TO NEAR FDY IN NWRN OH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS LINE WAS LOCATED OVER RICHLAND...ASHLAND AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN OH WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 330/15 KTS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP PLOTS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-40 KTS AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO. RESULTING WIND PROFILES ARE INDICATIVE OF A MARGINAL SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INDEED...PERIODIC MESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER NERN OH INTO NWRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATION OF MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE INDICATES LEADING EDGE WILL MOVE S OF WW 590 BY 2130-2200Z. SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN... 40368316 40638262 40808176 40968091 41098044 40678026 40258036 40038163 39938273 39998307 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 19:59:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 15:59:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 101959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101958 MTZ000-IDZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND NWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101958Z - 102230Z A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE. STRONG UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ERN WA INTO WRN MT. COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH STORMS NOW EVOLVING FROM NRN ID INTO NWRN MT. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH 35-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG LIVED CELLS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LARGEST HAIL STONES MAY REACH 1.50" DIAMETER WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX... 48951696 48971015 47540951 46481059 46331292 46401481 46821550 48031650 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 10 21:54:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 17:54:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 102154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102154 OKZ000-TXZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WRN OK / FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102154Z - 110000Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAVE LEFT COOL OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY HOT />100F/ OVER SWRN OK...WITH ABOUT 1.75 IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DCAPE ~1000 J/KG IS PRESENT ACROSS SWRN OK. SLY FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A FLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR EVEN ATOP COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL OK. ALSO...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH MEAN WINDS TAKING THIS ACTIVITY EWD. THEREFORE...THE THREAT REMAINS FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS ALONG THE I-40/I-44 CORRIDORS. ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA... 35360101 36309960 36449869 36629781 36469713 36099718 35829780 35219743 34999667 34609624 33949640 33859687 34179795 34629917 35000063 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 11 01:28:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 10 Jul 2006 21:28:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 110127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110127 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 110127Z - 110400Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL OK...BUT MERGING OUTFLOWS/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DIMINISH HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR TONIGHT. A STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WHILE ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION... STRETCHED FROM WEST OF TUL SWWD TO OKC AND LTS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE TX PANHANDLE...LIFTING SLOWLY EWD...WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET FROM SWRN OK NEWD INTO SWRN MO BY MID EVENING. THE MOIST AIR MASS BEING LIFTED ABOVE THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. ..IMY.. 07/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36169364 34959619 35169703 36159774 37309621 37949498 37959383 37429352 36999336 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 15:56:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 11:56:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121556 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121555 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA / NJ / SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121555Z - 121730Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS LATE THIS MORNING OWING TO ONGOING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE SE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NEAR AVP TO S OF POU HAS STARTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS OVER UPSTATE NY. MEANWHILE TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER ERN PA AND NJ WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S. WHEN COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /70-75 F DEWPOINTS/ AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CAP. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARING TO EXIST ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN PA INTO SERN NY. HERE...LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BOTH DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL TEND TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT OVER ERN PA AND NJ...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39887722 40877695 41587644 41967596 42117535 41987445 41707376 41057362 39877408 39407482 39297646 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 16:52:55 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 12:52:55 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121652 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121652 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF KY / TN INTO ERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121652Z - 121815Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR OWB TO W OF MEM WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER CNTRL AR /MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SIMILAR INSTABILITY EWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV/S OVER E-CNTRL MO AND N-CNTRL AR SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN AR INTO NWRN MS...AND OVER WRN PARTS OF KY AND TN. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND LESS THAN 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL. STILL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...OWING TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34149288 34809241 36208998 37978730 38078664 37638609 36948621 36108704 34688942 33829093 33669222 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 17:40:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 13:40:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121738 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH INTO SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121738Z - 121915Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SMALL MCV TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH SERN OH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO SWRN PA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT PITTSBURG VWP INDICATES MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2/. THIS SOURCE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY COUPLED WITH VERTICAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ANTICIPATED THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 39898184 40528158 40868069 40997973 40777890 40187886 39497967 39288054 39318155 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 17:57:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 13:57:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121756 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / MD / NRN VA / INTO DE AND SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121756Z - 121930Z THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AIR MASS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS BECOME HOT AND QUITE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL MD ACROSS NRN VA INTO FAR ERN WV. REGIONAL VWPS SHOW THAT THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXIST ACROSS OH / PA INTO NRN NJ WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS TO REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED...HOWEVER IF IT BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38098008 39127981 39697882 39907717 40087577 40137515 39487467 38817504 38077554 37927733 37627955 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 18:14:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 14:14:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121813 WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-121945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SRN OH AND WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121813Z - 121945Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NEAR LEX TO BWG WITH ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED OVER NERN KY INTO SRN OH. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER KY INTO WV HAS BECOME RELATIVELY HOT AND MOIST...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. AOA -6 C 500 MB/ ARE LIKELY LIMITED INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/. DESPITE THIS WEAK INSTABILITY...CURRENT LOUISVILLE VWP SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL...SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING OR LEWP LINE STRUCTURE. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 36778657 38058538 38768396 39048241 38908159 38248128 37538144 36698378 36618618 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 18:34:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 14:34:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121833 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121833 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-121930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121833Z - 121930Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1825Z...UPTON NY RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND /20 WSW GON/ WITH A MOTION OF 265/20 KTS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AMBIENT AIR MASS FROM LONG ISLAND NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. ASSOCIATED UPTON NY VWP INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 30-40 KTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SMALL-DIAMETER SUPERCELL STORMS TO PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41007356 41507351 41777315 41827194 41827112 41197130 40997275 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 19:28:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 15:28:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121927 KSZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121927Z - 122100Z THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE OVER ELLIS...HODGEMAN AND EDWARDS COUNTIES IN WRN KS. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR SWRN KS. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER THE STEEP LOW-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37749968 38910077 39580088 39880003 39569908 38769831 37989842 37579884 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 19:51:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 15:51:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 121950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121949 NDZ000-SDZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121949Z - 122145Z ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH /MAINLY ACROSS ND/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN ND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU/INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN ND /NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWEST OF MINOT/...INTO FAR WESTERN SD BETWEEN BUFFAL0 AND RAPID CITY AS OF 1945Z. AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER 100S. ALTHOUGH MORNING RAOBS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES...RUC SOUNDINGS/MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LIMITED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESSES...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS AROUND 25-30 KTS. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION MAY REMAIN LIMITED...HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44130216 44190331 45600384 47830341 48400288 48670225 48780127 48500001 46870068 44680111 44160185 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 20:19:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 16:19:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122018 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT/FAR NORTHEAST ID/NORTHWEST WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122018Z - 122215Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST MT/FAR EASTERN ID INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT/NORTHWEST WY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ID/FAR WESTERN MT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ID/FAR SOUTHWEST MT. AS STORMS FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS /AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/ WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/INVERTED-V PROFILES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 45831223 47471078 47270865 46080748 44380864 43301102 43591200 45031236 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 20:50:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 16:50:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122049 NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-122145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA / NRN NJ / SERN NY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 593... VALID 122049Z - 122145Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. SUPERCELL WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO OVER WESTCHESTER COUNTY IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN FAIRFIELD COUNTY MOVING INTO THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. OTHER LESS ORGANIZED STORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER NRN NJ AND FAR ERN PA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MSV TO NEAR TTN. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND ALBANY/UPTON VWPS INDICATE THAT MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED MORE SLY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...A W-E ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS NRN NJ FROM E OF ABE EWD TO NEAR EWR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO FAR NRN NJ/FAR SERN NY WHERE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. TO THE W OF THIS N-S ORIENTED WIND SHIFT...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40387661 42117568 42297429 42107320 41087319 40127444 39807566 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 21:29:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 17:29:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122129 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122129Z - 122330Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL /IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ WILL EXIST FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED AS TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER /ROUGHLY FROM NEAR CLOVIS NM TO NORTH OF HOBBS NM/...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AMIDST A CORRIDOR OF MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE /IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCV/. WITHIN THIS AREA...MLCAPES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH NEGLIGIBLE CINH. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS/ AND HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33500160 32690224 32680309 34350323 35090224 36150004 35099979 34510062 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 22:17:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 18:17:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122216 ARZ000-OKZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 122216Z - 130015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ON FRINGE OF REMNANT NORTH CENTRAL OK MCV...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ROUGHLY ORIENTED WEST-EAST FROM NEAR ADA/MCALESTER OK TO NEAR FORT SMITH/RUSSELVILLE AR. WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR /ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ADA-MCALESTER AS OF 22Z/...AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPSWING IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-EAST BOUNDARY. ASIDE FROM PULSE-TYPE MICROBURST/HAIL POTENTIAL...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/TRAINING STORM MOTIONS IN PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES WILL FAVOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34069703 34989694 35469555 35909313 36049235 35669201 35069226 34629356 34279490 33999579 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 12 23:56:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 19:56:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 122356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122355 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... VALID 122355Z - 130100Z REMAINING PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z. EARLIER BAND OF TSTMS...INCLUDING AN ISOLD SUPERCELL...THAT PROMPTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 HAS MOVED EWD AND DIMINISHED OVER LONG ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. RENEWED STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL PA ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/VCNTY WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE EARLY THIS EVENING AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN PA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE AUGMENTED BY A WEAK MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING CNTRL PA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GIVEN SUNSET...TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVE. BUT...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS ECNTRL/SERN PA. STATE COLLEGE VWP SHOWS ABOUT 30 KTS OF FLOW IN THE FIRST FEW GATES ABOVE GROUND. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER. ..RACY.. 07/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 40107687 41397619 41997486 41907368 40417443 39867600 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:05:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:05:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130204 MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130204Z - 130330Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:06:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:06:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130205 COR MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130205Z - 130330Z CORRECTED FOR LAST SENTENCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:07:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:07:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130204 MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130204Z - 130330Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 02:08:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2006 22:08:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 130206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130205 COR MTZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130205Z - 130330Z CORRECTED FOR LAST SENTENCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE DIVIDE INTO SCNTRL MT/NCNTRL WY. A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ERN MT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT...DESPITE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE TSTMS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SHOWS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GIVEN THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...GUSTY WINDS /SOME DAMAGING-SEVERE/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-EVE HOURS ACROSS ERN MT. A WW IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED...MAINLY DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 45180756 48910745 48980411 45220411  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 15:19:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 11:19:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131519 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131518 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-131715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...NERN TN...SRN WV THROUGH S CNTRL AND SRN VA AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131518Z - 131715Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BY 17Z-18Z. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDS FROM NERN TN...THROUGH ERN KY...SRN WV AND SRN VA. S AND SE OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING EWD THROUGH KY MAY ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND 25 TO 30 KT WLY FLOW AROUND 2 KM SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS AS STORMS INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36268085 35798276 36128359 37328295 38118123 37807865 37607745 36377795 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 16:48:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 12:48:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131647 IAZ000-NEZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-131845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB THROUGH EXTREME NWRN IA AND EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131647Z - 131845Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED OVER SERN SD THROUGH ERN NEB IS INCREASING. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH SWRN NEB. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F HAS ADVECTED NWD BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG FROM ERN NEB INTO ERN SD. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CNTRL NEB NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. MORNING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RUC RAOB DATA SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...THEY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE SEWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41209634 40599759 41299941 43059880 44509825 44429684 42919605 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 17:58:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 13:58:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131757 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131757Z - 132000Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. LIKELY BEING AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MDT-TOWERING CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG A GENERAL NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MO. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED BOTH NORTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MO...AND ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AS OF 1745Z. INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH AN OVERALL UPSWING IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...RUC BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE MODIFIED 12Z DAVENPORT RAOB SUGGEST THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MLCAPES ARE ALREADY ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG...WITH 3000 J/KG OR GREATER POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON PER SHORT TERM RUC GUIDANCE. WINCHESTER IL PROFILER AND DAVENPORT/ST LOUIS WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF MODEST WIND PROFILES...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER PULSE/ISOLATED IN NATURE. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41099332 41719232 40848997 38868900 37708986 38209113 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 18:52:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 14:52:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131851 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-132045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131851Z - 132045Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED BY 20Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD A FAIRLY MOIST/PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...OVERCOMING REMAINING SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE. INTERSPERSED BETWEEN HIGHER CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN...WITH ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY NEAR DETROIT LAKES MN. SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...12Z ABERDEEN RAOB MODIFIED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...SUGGESTING MULTICELL CLUSTERS/FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47879766 48919707 48719482 45919459 44749504 44849660 44959734 46599766 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 19:54:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 15:54:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 131953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131953 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA...NRN MO AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131953Z - 132100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SERN NEB...NERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL IA AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN NEB NEWD THROUGH NWRN IA. THE ATMOSPHERE SE OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG. THE 18Z SOUNDING DATA SHOW THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39699219 39349505 40779661 41459573 42349509 42059341 40519184 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 20:41:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 16:41:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132040 KSZ000-NEZ000-132245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132040Z - 132245Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NEB INTO NWRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NEB NEAR O'NEILL SWWD TO NEAR IMPERIAL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN NEB NEAR MCCOOK INTO NWRN KS. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB SWWD TO NEAR LEXINGTON. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE CAP WEAKENS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS S AND SE OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING OVER SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...BUT WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 3 KM. HOWEVER..PROFILER DATA SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED...RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND DEVELOP SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 40340031 40529939 40399681 39259674 39060018 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 21:32:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 17:32:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132131 NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST TN/FAR SOUTHERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 132131Z - 132300Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL /ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA/FAR NORTHERN NC. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG/OFF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...FOCUSED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHERN VA ALONG A WEST-EAST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY -- 2000 J/KG MLCAPE OR GREATER -- IN PLACE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST/TRAINING STORM MOTIONS IN A RELATIVELY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... 37358102 37488018 37577759 37047636 36307600 36097748 36237928 35938216 36798203 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 22:29:02 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 18:29:02 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132227 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD/FAR EASTERN ND AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 132227Z - 140000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF WW 596 ACROSS MN. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN...AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/FEW SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF WW 596. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF EXISTING EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN STORMS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FURTHER EAST...STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN /BETWEEN BEMIDJI-HIBBING/ SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN UPON ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH EAST OF WW 596 THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 48509723 48719549 48449376 47779263 45729355 44709429 44729596 44849725 46759727 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 13 23:01:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 19:01:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 132301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132300 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132300Z - 140100Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVE ACROSS ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO. THIS INCLUDES THE KSTJ AND KMCI METRO AREAS. LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREAS S AND E OF WS 597/598. CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED VCNTY KOMA DURING THE MID- AFTN HAS EXPANDED AND A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED. LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FORWARD PROPAGATION LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS ERN KS AND NRN/WRN MO. 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT SEWD FROM THE TSTM COMPLEX SEWD INTO NERN MO. SW OF THIS FRONT...AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO 3500 J PER KG...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER. AFTN RAOBS SUGGESTED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN INCREASING FLOW IN THE 4-6KM LAYER NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN NEB...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS IS LIKELY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG SWRN FLANKS OF THE COLD POOL...CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL MCS MOTION TO THE SSE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH NRN/WRN MO AND ERN KS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SERN KS AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS AFTER 01-02Z AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40509442 39509259 37949233 37349339 37359517 38269746 40059753 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:26:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:26:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140025 NCZ000-VAZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/FAR SOUTHERN VA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 140025Z - 140130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION/WW 595...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE VA/NC BORDER. COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE PUSHED ORIGINAL WEST-EAST BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ALONG AND ADJACENT TO WW 595...ANY SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT RESIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE NEARING THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL NC /AS OF 0015Z/. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE VIA PERSISTENCE OF 80S F TEMP/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG. EVEN WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN REPETITIVE STORM MOTIONS/RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 35618019 36427990 36537889 36567754 36497648 36217568 35847560 35567684 35577890 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:27:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:27:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140026 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... VALID 140026Z - 140200Z SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITHIN WS 594 THIS EVENING. EVOLUTION OF A SWD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EVIDENT WELL SE OF THE WW THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ATOP THE COLD POOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ECNTRL NEB AND WCNTRL IA RECENTLY...POSING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. FARTHER W...A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL AND AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CU WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE NOT GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY...PRESUMABLY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN CINH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS OVER CNTRL MN MAY BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING SHOULD DECREASE AS PRIMARY LLJ FOCUSES FARTHER S AHEAD OF THE MCS OVER NRN MO/NERN KS BY LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40749913 44539750 44559406 40639594 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:27:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:27:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140025 NCZ000-VAZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/FAR SOUTHERN VA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595... VALID 140025Z - 140130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 595 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION/WW 595...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS EITHER SIDE OF THE VA/NC BORDER. COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE PUSHED ORIGINAL WEST-EAST BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. ALONG AND ADJACENT TO WW 595...ANY SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT RESIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE NEARING THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL NC /AS OF 0015Z/. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE VIA PERSISTENCE OF 80S F TEMP/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG. EVEN WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN REPETITIVE STORM MOTIONS/RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 35618019 36427990 36537889 36567754 36497648 36217568 35847560 35567684 35577890  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 00:28:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 20:28:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140026 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... VALID 140026Z - 140200Z SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITHIN WS 594 THIS EVENING. EVOLUTION OF A SWD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EVIDENT WELL SE OF THE WW THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ATOP THE COLD POOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ECNTRL NEB AND WCNTRL IA RECENTLY...POSING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. FARTHER W...A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL AND AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CU WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE NOT GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY...PRESUMABLY GIVEN AN INCREASE IN CINH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS OVER CNTRL MN MAY BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING SHOULD DECREASE AS PRIMARY LLJ FOCUSES FARTHER S AHEAD OF THE MCS OVER NRN MO/NERN KS BY LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 40749913 44539750 44559406 40639594  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 01:01:07 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 21:01:07 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140059 MNZ000-SDZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MN/FAR EASTERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 140059Z - 140230Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF WW 596 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF WW 596 TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES METRO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION APPEARS IMMINENT. VIA CONGLOMERATION OF EARLIER TSTMS...FAIRLY EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THIS COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DRIVING A SMALL SCALE MCS NEAR HUTCHINSON/LITCHFIELD MN ABOUT 40 W OF MSP AS OF 0045Z...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. THE 00Z MPX OBSERVED RAOB WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF A FAIRLY UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS WITH 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN...STORMS INTENSITY HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED GIVEN CLOUD DEBRIS/INCREASING SURFACE CINH. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 47749588 47829362 46379337 45109297 44549367 44639491 44779666 45219686 46679609 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 02:21:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2006 22:21:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140220 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...SERN NEB...NRN/CNTRL MO...WCNTRL IL...SRN IA...SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140220Z - 140415Z LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE LINEAR MCS ARCS FROM ERN IA ACROSS NRN MO AND NERN KS AT 02Z. 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS FROM S OF KANSAS CITY ESEWD INTO AREAS JUST WEST OF ST. LOUIS WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN 3-3.5 KJ PER KG ALONG/S OF A WARM FRONT. PRIND THAT THE PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST IN THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVE. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR S THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD...BUT GIVEN THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE S OF THE STRONGER WLYS...A TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL/LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY. FARTHER W...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND NCNTRL KS ATOP THE COLD POOL EMANATING FROM THE NRN MO MCS. PROFILERS/VWP SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ WAS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS NRN/ERN KS INTO NRN MO. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA ATOP A WEAK COLD BUBBLE/MESO HIGH. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE A LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. ..RACY.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37750060 40529967 41689654 42089429 41329199 39579116 38049188 37609425 37529762 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 06:08:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2006 02:08:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140607 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140607 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140607Z - 140730Z HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS A LARGE MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN AND SRN KS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS WRN AR INTO SE KS. SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE SWD IN NERN OK AND NW AR AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE MCS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SSEWD ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THE LATEST PROFILER DATA OVER SERN KS SHOW ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE MCS IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER NE KS AND THIS ALONG WITH STABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A WW MIGHT BE CONSIDERED LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38769491 38479434 37749395 37039392 36159410 35639489 35599563 35799647 36329687 37259707 38219693 38769611 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 14 06:34:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 14 Jul 2006 02:34:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 140634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140634 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-140800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SW WI...SE MN AND NW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140634Z - 140800Z STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO SW WI AND SE MN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SE MN FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN MN. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS SHOW WEAK SHEAR PROFILES /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT/ AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT SHORT-LIVED. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE MCS MOVES EWD INTO WCNTRL WI. ..BROYLES.. 07/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44909022 44588962 44068936 43538929 43048958 42798983 42629070 42659154 42919231 43489269 44439246 44959154 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 16 23:08:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2006 19:08:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162307 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE MN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162307Z - 170100Z THE NEED FOR A WW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEAST OF HIBBING MN APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED...TO THE NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK COOLING ALOFT HAS OCCURRED IN WEST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO HAVE OCCURRED AS INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION BECAME ROOTED IN VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG. SO...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW LONG SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL PERSIST...AS ONGOING ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ABOVE COOLER MARINE LAYER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR... AND RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST IN FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME UPSTREAM...INTO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS. AN EAST-WEST BAND OF STORMS COULD EVOLVE...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN MODERATE TO STRONG AND SHEARED MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF... 48969714 48989483 48179148 47968949 47728795 47148618 46448629 46208793 46509040 46879198 47089342 47519540 47969696 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 16 23:44:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2006 19:44:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 162343 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162343 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-170115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SRN MN/WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162343Z - 170115Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH OR TWO. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF INHIBITION...BUT ALSO DUE TO THE LACK OF A MORE OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN A BELT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKER STREAM ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ONE IMPULSE IS NOW SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND...WEAK MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AN EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. UPPER FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE MODERATE THAN AREAS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BUT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/SIZABLE CAPE/AND SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF SIOUX FALLS INTO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. ..KERR.. 07/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44469891 45239817 45579705 45829477 44959150 44688954 43658869 43138988 43429163 43599489 43569706 43619860 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 00:06:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2006 20:06:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170005 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN...CENTRAL...WRN AZ AND EXTREME SRN NV/SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170005Z - 170230Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING FAR SRN AZ AND PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF WRN AZ IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM HAS REMAINED STRONG UNTIL IT MOVES DOWN TO AROUND 3 KFT IN ELEVATION. 18Z PHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATES THERE REMAINS SOME CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SVR THREAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE PHX METRO AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER NW...CONVECTION OVER NWRN PLATEAU REGION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING A COLD POOL RECENTLY. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF FAR NWRN AZ AND EXTREME SRN NV APPEARS TO BE LESS CAPPED THAN THE PHX METRO AREA BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. THUS AN ORGANIZED DMGG WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS IF CONTINUED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. OVER FAR SRN AZ...NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BNDRY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CINH AND SUPPORT CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF TUS WHERE AIRMASS WAS MORE UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32271399 33391453 35561519 36251448 36051359 35261267 34181131 33151129 31521148 31491146 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 08:49:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 04:49:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 170847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170847 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-171015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN...NRN WI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170847Z - 171015Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA EXTENDING SWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH A DRY SLOT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS NRN MN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT AND OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...HOWEVER SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THE CAP WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES RANGE FROM ABOUT 30 TO 40 KT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9.0 C/KM. THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STORM COVERAGE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AND THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH... 46298929 46359255 46729377 47549385 47989314 47989116 47678842 46598824 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 17:11:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 13:11:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171709 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-171915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...EXTREME NRN IL...CNTRL AND SRN WI THROUGH ERN UPPER MI AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171709Z - 171915Z SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z OVER WRN PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA. SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ONE OR MORE WWS MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL WI...SERN MN AND INTO NRN IA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. OTHER BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS EXTEND FROM NERN IA INTO SRN WI. A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS ADVECTED EWD OVER RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 4000 J/KG. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO. THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAKER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND MAY DELAY SURFACE BASED INITIATION ANOTHER FEW HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING FURTHER WEAKENS THE CAP. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43309372 43909266 44459122 45218994 45898797 46528713 46608493 46098406 45238381 44388603 42628846 42199256 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 19:12:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 15:12:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 171910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171909 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...WRN LA...SERN OK AND SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171909Z - 172145Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GENERALLY MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD FROM WRN LA INTO PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LIMITED SVR THREAT AND ORGANIZATION...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BNDRY EXTENDING SE-NW FROM NEAR LAF TO NEAR TXK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN ON THIS BNDRY. COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HEATING/CONVERGENCE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER VORT CENTER OVER SRN MS SHOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BNDRY AND IN THE VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS THAT EXTENDS NWWD INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR. 20-25 KT MID LEVEL NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ON RECENT LCH AND SHV VWP DATA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER SRN MS/LA...EXPECT SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SWWD THROUGH WRN LA AND ECENTRAL/SERN TX WITH SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE /MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG/ AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OR CELL MERGERS WITHIN LINES. FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER SERN OK/SWRN AR. TERRAIN AIDED FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS...WITH DMGG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG/...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND DCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 30049141 30989275 33029375 34909389 35219414 35049648 34509692 32259627 31429581 29219491 29279410 29459210 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 20:54:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 16:54:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172049 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AND WRN AZ...FAR SWRN UT AND SRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172049Z - 172245Z ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM NWWD INTO THE SCENTRAL MTNS OF UT. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP WWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS /TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN NV/ AFTER 22Z WITH THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN DMGG WIND THREAT. FURTHER SE...AN MCV OVER SERN AZ MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS OF SERN AZ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR WIND/BLOWING DUST RISK IN THE PHX METRO AREA/SCENTRAL AZ ALSO AFTER 22Z. 24 HR TREND ANALYSES SHOWS MANY SFC OBS HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM A 3-10 DEG F DWPT INCREASE. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY SLIGHT COOLING /3-4 DEG F/. THEREFORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH EXISTED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. SO IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL MORE HRS OF HEATING TO AID IN ANY SVR THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN AZ/SWRN UT AND SERN AZ TO DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY /AROUND 20 KTS/. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT...WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION AND A DMGG WIND THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... 31941192 32671311 34711438 35301514 35941504 36891482 37521408 37681349 37631320 37121301 35341170 34961122 34381069 33861051 33021037 32321026 31561096  From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:02:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:02:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172201 MIZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172201Z - 172300Z NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 607 SHORTLY. STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION NOW SEEMS WELL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...WEAKENED INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING LINE OF INTENSE STORMS. FOCUS APPEARS TO BE PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST...CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING LONGEVITY OF SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS...WHICH COULD APPROACH AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF DETROIT BY 00Z. ACTIVITY COULD WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. REGARDLESS...AS SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL FORCING/DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE FLINT/ LANSING AND DETROIT AREAS BY AT LEAST 03Z. ..KERR.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42268298 42068381 42138520 42268575 42798580 43438530 43778410 44058312 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:24:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:24:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172222 CAZ000-180045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL MTNS/HIGH DESERT OF SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172222Z - 180045Z ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV MOVING WWD OVER SERN CA. DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 90S ABOVE 4000 FT...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S PER RAWS DATA. MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF MLCINH IN THE MTNS AND AROUND 50 J/KG OF MLCINH IN THE HIGH DESERT. RECENT VWP DATA SHOWING 30-35 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV. COMBINED WITH WEAK WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AROUND 40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ROTATION. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY SUPPORT STG-SVR ELY WIND GUST GUSTS THAT WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF THE COASTAL MTNS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE HIGH DESERT WITH APPROACH OF MCV BUT AGAIN COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX... 34051647 34401657 35251722 35241814 34881850 34581848 33951774 33271684 32781662 32751627 33391627 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:35:45 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:35:45 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172234 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL...NRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606...607... VALID 172234Z - 180000Z CONTINUE WWS 606-607. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. STRONG HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF EXTREME CONDITIONAL/ CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. AT LEAST UNTIL INHIBITION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AFTER ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LATER THIS EVENING... INCREASING SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AS FRONTAL FORCING DEVELOPS THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. MEAN FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE DOWNBURSTS. LOCALIZED VERY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A BROADER-SCALE STRONG/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AS A CONVECTIVE LINE GRADUALLY EVOLVES. THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA MAY BE IMPACTED BY 01-02Z...AND PERHAPS SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN NOT LONG THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43428250 43198368 42988472 42168553 41458645 41138794 40529069 40499306 41389408 42379364 42889297 43319153 43798912 44218695 44418556 44948242 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 17 22:42:57 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 18:42:57 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 172241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172241 COR MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL...LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606...607... VALID 172241Z - 180000Z CORRECTED SOUTHEAST LOWER MI TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI CONTINUE WWS 606-607. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. STRONG HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF EXTREME CONDITIONAL/ CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. AT LEAST UNTIL INHIBITION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AFTER ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING LATER THIS EVENING... INCREASING SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AS FRONTAL FORCING DEVELOPS THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. MEAN FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE DOWNBURSTS. LOCALIZED VERY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A BROADER-SCALE STRONG/GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AS A CONVECTIVE LINE GRADUALLY EVOLVES. THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA MAY BE IMPACTED BY 01-02Z...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN NOT LONG THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 07/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43428250 43198368 42988472 42168553 41458645 41138794 40529069 40499306 41389408 42379364 42889297 43319153 43798912 44218695 44418556 44948242 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 00:47:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 20:47:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180045 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NV...NWRN AZ AND SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... VALID 180045Z - 180245Z CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SVR THREAT SHOULD APPROACH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/LAKE MEAD AREA SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS AROUND 03Z. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DRA MODIFIED FOR CONDITIONS IN LAS INDICATED LITTLE MLCINH AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. TSTM ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN RECENT SIGNS OF SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME CINH REMAINING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. RUC PFC/S INDICATE AROUND 25 J/KG OF MLCINH BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 97/52 AT IGM. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED CELL MERGERS/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE SVR THREAT WILL STILL PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE LOWER COLO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL REMAIN SVR AND POSE A SVR THREAT ALL THE WAY INTO THE LAS VEGAS AREA...CONSIDERING THE RECENT MOTION TRENDS AND GRADUAL STABILIZATION AFTER 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PSR...VEF... 34281421 34091530 33991606 36561608 37001337 34371339 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 02:00:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 22:00:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180158 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607... VALID 180158Z - 180300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW...ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03Z. HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT WW 607 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE WEAKENING OF WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH JETLET MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE LOW WEST OF KIRKSVILLE. WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO STALL EAST OF ST. JOSEPH/NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CELL WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. BEYOND 03-04Z...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AS INHIBITION GRADUALLY INCREASES FOR COOLING SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. ..KERR.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40019410 40389333 40639240 40269144 39659155 39459292 39489415 39829422 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 03:14:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 17 Jul 2006 23:14:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180312 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-180445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SRN LWR MI...NRN IND...NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 608...610... VALID 180312Z - 180445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 608 AND 610. ADDITIONAL WW SOUTH OF WW 608 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS FOR MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 05-06Z APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN/EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS AREA REMAINS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND INHIBITION HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN GENERAL...WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA ...HAS BEEN SLOW TO COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S. ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA... COOLER...MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF DETROIT. ..KERR.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 42408951 42928798 42728677 42538589 42278442 42418333 41828259 41178374 40928593 40728773 40478925 40628996 41538931 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 05:34:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 01:34:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180532 MEZ000-180700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180532Z - 180700Z MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE MOVING INTO NRN MAINE. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN QUEBEC WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IS MOVING INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WRN MAINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SUGGESTS THE LINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. THIS MAY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE MARGINAL. THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45056847 45386979 45897028 47316955 47686881 47646785 46516707 45456739 45086840 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 05:58:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 01:58:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 180557 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180556 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-180730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND AND NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610... VALID 180556Z - 180730Z ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR BEFORE STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NRN IL WITH A COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN IND INTO SWRN ONTARIO. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM THE WRN EDGE OF THE MCS OVER FAR SRN LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS NRN IL. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MCS IS MOVING SWD INTO AND AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MCS. ..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40468649 40498831 41108863 41598826 41788668 41728525 41488472 40958471 40688480 40568532 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 11:40:53 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 07:40:53 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181139 INZ000-ILZ000-181315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181139Z - 181315Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SWD ACROSS SCNTRL IL. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN MO TO NRN IND. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE BAND NEAR A MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN CNTRL IL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38618777 38108881 38378972 39188987 39868948 40088903 40028806 39338753 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 14:58:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 10:58:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181457 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181456 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181456Z - 181630Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ONE OR MORE WW/S MAY BE REQUIRED. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF UNV TO SE BGM TO SE BML. IN FACT...A TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER BRADFORD COUNTY IN N-CNTRL PA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. MODESTLY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SMALL-SCALE BOWS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 40807907 41177856 42087646 43297318 44667043 44086972 42397086 40167831 40247893 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 17:36:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 13:36:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181735 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181734 LAZ000-TXZ000-181930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 181734Z - 181930Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN NEAR/WEST OF HOUSTON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS/SMALL HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES WESTWARD MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM THE HOUSTON METRO SOUTH TO NEAR LAKE JACKSON TX. AT PEARLAND...A 37 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AROUND 17Z...WITH A GUST TO 35 KTS AT HOUSTON/ELLINGTON AROUND THE SAME TIME. STRONG DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION ON THIS PERIPHERY OF THIS EXISTING ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO A WITH RESULTANT EXPANSION OF TSTMS/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA...WHERE A SIMILAR ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. OVERALL ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28999621 29449646 30269616 31499425 31489302 30689152 30049115 29989278 30049369 29719461 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 17:54:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 13:54:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181753 OHZ000-INZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IND INT0 CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181753Z - 181900Z THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH INTENSIFYING TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER PARTS OF E-CNTRL IND/W-CNTRL OH INVOF WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM W-CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL OH. HERE...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEAR TO BE LOCAL MINIMUMS IN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND WINDS. STILL...SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST OWING TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40138628 40758580 41028501 40898379 40628288 40698143 40398100 39938122 39498242 39448404 39538516 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 18:55:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 14:55:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181854 ILZ000-MOZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181854Z - 182030Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM NEAR UIN TO N OF SPI...TO THE N OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW N OF STL ENEWD INTO CNTRL IL. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 3500-4500 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80 TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS REGION OF AGITATED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH NRN IND INTO CNTRL IL. THEREFORE...SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ABOVE THE PBL MAY TEND TO SLOW TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS NNWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 30-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38379048 38059318 38579323 39419150 40259053 40518990 40608923 40278858 39508867 38818925 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 19:17:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 15:17:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 181915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181915 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MD INTO NRN VA AND FAR ERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181915Z - 182015Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. MODIFICATION OF 18Z WAL SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER ERN WV ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38087948 38707936 39157896 39527828 39687770 39697692 39497635 38787606 37837671 37457773 37427879 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 18 22:14:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 18:14:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 182212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182212 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-182345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...NJ...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611...612... VALID 182212Z - 182345Z NEW WWS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY CURRENT EXPIRATION TIMES OF WW 611 AND 612. NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK IS ONGOING. AND...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS AS ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS. FLOW FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA THROUGH NEW YORK CITY AND THE BOSTON AREA REMAINS VERY WARM/MOIST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL. GRADUALLY EVOLUTION OF A VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE UPPER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...CTP... 41657002 41237081 40857232 40507348 39607478 39907621 40207593 40697527 41227403 41657260 42107138 42427082 42297006 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 00:44:36 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:44:36 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190042 MOZ000-190215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190042Z - 190215Z AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED BY AROUND 02Z. ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES TO PERSIST/MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AREAS OF THE MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST /ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARMINGTON MO/. COINCIDENT WITH MEAN PROPAGATION...THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE FAVORING A SW-NE ORIENTED WIND SHIFT/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL MO. RUC-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 50 MILES OR SO DOWNSTREAM/SOUTHWEST OF THE EXISTING SUPERCELL...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AS FAR WEST AS PULASKI/TEXAS/HOWELL COUNTIES MO PER ADJUSTED 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED RAOB. THUS...CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT OFFSET VIA A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING CINH/COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO A CONVECTIVE DOWNSWING. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37899253 38049168 37709077 37119050 36729074 36589167 36639241 36939279 37269282 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 01:01:06 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 21:01:06 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190059 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-190230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...614... VALID 190059Z - 190230Z CONTINUE WW 614. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 613 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AREA...MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN NOW AND 03-04Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...THROUGH CONNECTICUT/RHODE ISLAND...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL PROBABLY SPREAD ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND AREAS BY 02-03Z...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. PEAK GUSTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS ALONG GUST FRONT. AND...DESPITE CONSIDERABLE COOLING OF PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...POTENTIALLY COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER DOWNBURSTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 42177099 42157030 41576994 40927089 40087351 39207515 39377657 39917818 39927809 40257649 41087528 41677397 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 03:44:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2006 23:44:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190342 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-190445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... VALID 190342Z - 190445Z ZONE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 05-06Z. IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLING/STABILIZING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. UNTIL THEN...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..KERR.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... 41537004 40907114 40707251 40757337 41157295 41507163 41957097 42217043 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 06:26:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 02:26:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 190625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190624 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-190800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD...SRN ND...FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190624Z - 190800Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS NRN SD AND SRN ND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN ND. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM CNTRL SD TO SERN ND. RUC FORECASTS MOVE THE AXIS EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40 KT. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45099631 44589961 44510123 44790201 45920195 46320032 46589771 46469623 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 12:18:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 08:18:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191216 MNZ000-191345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191216Z - 191345Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SW MN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MCS OVER WRN MN ALONG THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS THE STORM CLUSTER MOVES ESEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE WARM ALOFT...THE SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD... 45639472 45209364 44109376 43709499 44119619 44799632 45409585 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 14:41:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 10:41:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191440 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-191615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN / W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI / NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191440Z - 191615Z ONGOING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.. AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO DISTINCT MESOSCALE SYSTEMS...ONE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE EXTENDING FROM 30 NNE MSP TO 15 NE FRM...AND ANOTHER E OF MCW. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES ARE LOCATED N OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH SWRN MN...CNTRL IA AND NRN IL INTO SRN WI. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z MPX SOUNDING COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG SWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF INFLOW AIR MASS WITH STORMS LIKELY BECOMING MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY 12Z ABR SOUNDING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SHOULD SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CORES GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43229360 44339344 45049203 44729065 44159011 43538967 42648974 42099086 42219174 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 16:42:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 12:42:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191640 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-191815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI/ NERN IA / NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... VALID 191640Z - 191815Z THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING MCS. ADDITIONAL WW/S MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME. A COMPLEX MCS EVOLUTION HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AS LARGER-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER SERN MN HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED WHILE SMALLER BOW OVER NERN IA HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. AT 0.5 DEGREES...STRONG INBOUND RADIAL VELOCITIES HAVE PERSISTED ON LACROSSE WI RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN BOW ECHO...HOWEVER ONLY FEW REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. BASED ON RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT SYSTEM MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...PREVENTING THE MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT RAPID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL WI...TO THE S OF A SECONDARY WARM FRONT/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS N OF LSE EWD TO S OF OSH. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DECAYING NRN BOW ECHO AS LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIR. FARTHER S OVER NERN IA...STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER S TO VICINITY OF MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM APPROXIMATELY 20 ESE FOD TO 30 W MLI. WHILE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TEND TO DIMINISH WITH SRN EXTENT...INSTABILITY INCREASES OWING TO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP S OF WW 616 INTO E-CNTRL IA AND NWRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42229240 43019249 43859216 44249148 44429064 44308976 43028946 42088979 41639053 41629137  From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 18:08:59 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 14:08:59 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191807 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN WV/WESTERN AND CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 191807Z - 192030Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT AREAS OF WV/VA/NORTHERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE AS WELL. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NORTHERN NC. GIVEN STRONG INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S/LOWER 90S F AND 70S F DEWPOINTS...THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS FROM WASHINGTON DC/BLACKSBURG VA/GREENSBORO NC...WITH MLCAPES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH. MORNING RAOBS/CURRENT WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK FLOW REGIME THAT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION. PULSE-TYPE MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND SLOW/POTENTIALLY TRAINING STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. SINCE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED...NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX... 38967927 38837789 38287736 37097776 35767886 36078021 36998087 37598071 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 18:26:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 14:26:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191824 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/MUCH OF LA/SOUTHERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191824Z - 192030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AL/SOUTHERN MS/MUCH OF LA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...PRIMARILY ACROSS LA/SOUTHERN MS. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 90S F/DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS ERODED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL/LA PER DEEPENING CU FIELD...WITH INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20/JACKSON ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. WITH A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM YESTERDAY...12Z OBSERVED RAOBS MODIFIED FOR CURRENT AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUPPORTS MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG IN A STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ROUNDING THE RIDGE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/SMALL CLUSTERS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31529276 32849279 32979040 32398812 31888706 30918764 30529001 30589152 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 19:25:51 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 15:25:51 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191924 MOZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191924Z - 192030Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM N OF VIH TO NEAR FAM. HERE...AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG OWING TO A HOT AND QUITE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOCAL VADS/VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK AS REGION IS ON ERN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE INTENSE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37619237 38209257 38659220 38739150 38449081 37979026 37409008 36919044 36929135 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 19:57:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 15:57:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 191956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191955 ILZ000-192100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191955Z - 192100Z ONGOING TSTMS OVER NWRN IL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP S OF WW 617 BY 21Z. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. AS OF 1950Z...DVN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT SEGMENT BOWING STRUCTURE FROM BUREAU COUNTY SWWD INTO KNOW COUNTY IL WITH A MOTION OF 330/35 KTS. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL IL HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG OWING TO A HOT AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS INTO CNTRL IL THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40309098 40569049 40378969 40338847 40418768 40058762 39128771 39048888 39198992 39409071 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 20:33:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 16:33:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192031 IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192031Z - 192200Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW MAY BE NEEDED AS SOON AS 21Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW S OF YKN WITH ATTENDANT COMPOSITE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO NWRN IA NEAR SPW AND THEN MORE SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA E OF DSM. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA HAS BECOME QUITE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES OF 95-105 F. WHEN COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-5000 J/KG. A STRONG CAP HAS INHIBITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED AIR ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL NEB. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION TOWARD SURFACE TRIPLE POINT REGION OVER NWRN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AS UPDRAFTS TAP THE STRONG INSTABILITY. CURRENT FSD VWP APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND AROUND 45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42849696 43269669 43629625 43779525 43529421 42949292 41899279 41719352 42149451 42449565 42549660 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 20:43:31 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 16:43:31 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192041 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... VALID 192041Z - 192245Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO NORTHEAST LA...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA. NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS...GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WESTWARD PUSH OF A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM NEAR VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ AS OF 2040Z. FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 15-20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA. IF IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZED THREAT WILL REACH OUT OF WW 618 WITH WEST EXTENT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32769335 33069185 32989031 32848943 31898917 31148933 30749068 30759237 31069319 31609339 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 21:17:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 17:17:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192115 NEZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192115Z - 192245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE FEATURES HIGH BASED TOWERING CU ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ROUGHLY ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NEB. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS/BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS MUCH OF NEB...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL IN EXCESS OF 100F. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS MODEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE INVERTED-V PROFILES/VERY LARGE DCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. IT IS LIKELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND LIKELY AROUND SUNSET. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 40750193 41500186 42249982 42579824 42259781 41189922 40830079 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 22:25:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 18:25:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192223 ILZ000-MOZ000-200000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0523 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR EASTERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619... VALID 192223Z - 200000Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 619 CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL UNTIL 01Z...WITH CONTINUED PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY SOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN MO...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR/EAST OF ST LOUIS. INTENSE MCS WITH HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS /IN ADDITION TO SOME LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO/ CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR SPRINGFIELD/JACKSONVILLE AS OF 2215Z. WITH A PREFERENTIAL PROPAGATION FAVORING THE W/SW FLANK OF THE MCS...COLD POOL MOMENTUM/FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE/SUPPORT THIS MCS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO AREAS NEAR ST LOUIS/INTERSTATE 70 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...IS CHARACTERIZED BY EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY SOON. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 38799105 40149096 40579039 40588918 40548799 39608765 39088801 38098843 37778892 37519003 38109075 38399107 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 22:36:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 18:36:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192234 ILZ000-200000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... VALID 192234Z - 200000Z CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW/INTO WW 619. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL CONTINUES MOVING SEWD/SSEWD ACROSS NRN AND INTO CENTRAL IL ATTM. THREAT ACROSS WW 617 HAS DIMINISHED BEHIND ONGOING STORMS...WITH THREAT NOW LIMITED TO SERN PORTIONS OF WW -- PARTS OF NERN IL. THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN INDIANA WITH TIME...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE SWD WITH TIME -- AND THUS REMAIN MAINLY W OF THE IL/INDIANA STATE LINE. THEREFORE...NEW WW E OF EXISTING WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..GOSS.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX... 41228807 40988777 40638779 40368855 40458961 40668962 41238849 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 19 23:51:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 19:51:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 192349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192349 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-200115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LA/EASTERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618...621... VALID 192349Z - 200115Z SMALL VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO EASTERN TX...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS/LOCALIZED STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS INTO EASTERN LA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. REMAINING SMALL PORTION OF WATCH 618 WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT/BEFORE THE SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION. FARTHER WEST...WEAK UPPER IMPULSE AND WELL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO DRIVE MCS /WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE/ WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THE WINNFIELD/ALEXANDRIA AREAS AT 2330Z. ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE COLD POOL/20 KTS OF STORM RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW...COUPLED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WESTERN LA...AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO EASTERN TX. ..GUYER.. 07/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31999507 32599491 32849329 32759208 31199099 30649257 30789430 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 00:43:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 20:43:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200041 LAZ000-TXZ000-200245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN LA/EASTERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... VALID 200041Z - 200245Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL REMAINING ACROSS FAR WESTERN LA/EASTERN TX. WELL ORGANIZED AND LONG SUSTAINED COLD POOL/MCS CONTINUES TO DRIVE WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN LA THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS NEARING THE SABINE RIVER AS OF 0030Z...INCLUDING AREAS FROM SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT TO NEAR FORT POLK/LEESVILLE LA. SIMILAR TO UPSTREAM HISTORY...PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH THE MCS CROSSING THE SABINE AND NEARING THE NACOGDOCHES/LUFKIN/JASPER TX AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE -- PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT/LAKE CHARLES. THIS MCS APPEARS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN TX /WESTERN PART OF WW 621/...ATTRIBUTABLE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX. ..GUYER.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 32759529 32999455 32829294 31439242 30659258 30719458 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 00:58:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 20:58:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200057 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 620... VALID 200057Z - 200230Z THREAT FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS NWRN IA AND VICINITY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER E AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS NWRN IA AND VICINITY...WITH SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT STILL BEING SUPPRESSED ATTM. THOUGH NNW-SSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LYING ACROSS CENTRAL IA...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET -- IS MAINLY OCCURRING FROM SERN MN/SWRN WI INTO NRN IL...WELL E OF THE WARM SECTOR. EVENING DVN RAOB SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE BASED NEAR 700 MB ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE AROUND 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE EXISTS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT -- WILL REMAIN FROM SERN MN SEWD ACROSS NERN IA AND SRN WI INTO NERN IL/NWRN IN...AND THAT TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS WW. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43529704 44289237 44009054 43308817 42138757 40688762 40919012 42429338 42199702 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 01:24:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 21:24:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200122 MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200122Z - 200215Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SERN IA...AS STORMS MAY CONTINUE SPREADING SWD/SSWWD ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SWWD ACROSS SERN MO AT AROUND 35 KT...ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TERM SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF THIS CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS -- ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38139062 38128969 36878983 36389097 36719234 37089242 38089172 38389149 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 01:34:44 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 21:34:44 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200133 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200133 COR MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0833 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200133Z - 200215Z CORRECTED TO CHANGE IA TO MO IN FIRST SENTENCE NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SERN MO...AS STORMS MAY CONTINUE SPREADING SWD/SSWWD ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SWWD ACROSS SERN MO AT AROUND 35 KT...ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TERM SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF THIS CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS -- ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38139062 38128969 36878983 36389097 36719234 37089242 38089172 38389149 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 03:33:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 23:33:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200331 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... VALID 200331Z - 200500Z ...SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING... LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM TXK TO LFK. STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LINGERING STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTION. MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 38KT WERE OBSERVED AS THE STORMS MOVED OVER THE SHV AREA AROUND 02Z. INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS E TX...BUT ELY WAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IS INCREASING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 40-50KT...AS SAMPLED IN SHREVEPORT VAD WIND DATA. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE WANING. ..TAYLOR.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30199153 30049427 30879595 32099586 33019546 33279501 33229354 31979282 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 03:50:10 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 23:50:10 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200348 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-200515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/NERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200348Z - 200515Z STORMS WILL INCREASE/SPREAD ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO AREAS E OF TORNADO WATCH 623. NEW WW LIKELY. SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS IA...FUELING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MN AND VICINITY. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAKER E OF ONGOING STORMS...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN EWD SPREAD OF THE SEVERE THREAT AS SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN MN CONTINUES MOVING EWD. STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH EWD EXTENT...SUGGESTING THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TREND WITH TIME TOWARD HAIL. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 44599224 44449066 43528847 42838786 41458816 42269199 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 07:33:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 03:33:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200732 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-200900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...FAR ERN IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 200732Z - 200900Z A SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE EVOLVING BOW MOVES ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS MN AND WI WITH A MCS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MCS IS MOVING SEWD NEAR 40 KT AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD INTO ERN WI...LAKE MICHIGAN AND NERN IL SUGGESTING THE MCS SHOULD TRACK ESEWD INTO THE MILWAUKEE BY 09Z AND INTO THE CHICAGO AREA BY 10Z TO 11Z. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT. THE QUICK FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41198846 41429035 42289105 43049091 43539055 43848966 43778852 43328755 42258724 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 07:57:24 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 03:57:24 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200755 IAZ000-200930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 623... VALID 200755Z - 200930Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE TAIL END OF THE LINEAR MCS EXITS NERN IA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE WRN END OF A LARGE MCS ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 70S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT GENERALLY ABOVE 850 MB WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET WHICH IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42179209 42169389 42539452 43059448 43389393 43279186 42669144 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:18:21 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:18:21 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200816 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200816Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41128755 43018773 43698768 43708522 42388477 42368475 40828477 40658654 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:21:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:21:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200819 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200819Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...MKX... 40748743 43638792 43558505 40688465 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:25:18 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:25:18 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200816 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200816Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41128755 43018773 43698768 43708522 42388477 42368475 40828477 40658654  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 08:26:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 04:26:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 200820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200819 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-200915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200819Z - 200915Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN. BOW ECHO HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN WI/EXTREME NRN IL AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45 KT. BOW HEAD WAS LOCATED OVER DODGE COUNTY...WI AND VAD WIND PROFILES/PROFILERS INDICATE WELL DEVELOPED INFLOW JET HAD DEVELOPED WITH THE SYSTEM. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN BOW ECHO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE BOW ECHO INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 10Z AND NWRN INDIANA BY 11Z...AND IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 09Z. ..IMY.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...MKX... 40748743 43638792 43558505 40688465  From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 10:20:30 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 06:20:30 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201018 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND...SW LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625... VALID 201018Z - 201145Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS BEGINNING TO TURN SEWD AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER ECNTRL IL AND NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOUTH OF WW 624 AND WW 625 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO ON THE NERN EDGE OF A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. RUC DATA SUGGESTS WINDS ALOFT TURN NLY ACROSS ERN IL AND IND WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN A TURN OF THE LINEAR MCS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL IL AND NERN IND AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MCS AS THE SUN COMES UP. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ALLOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOW. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40048605 39818796 40058918 40598982 41498928 41758739 42428616 42568537 42048454 41148455 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 20 12:04:04 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 08:04:04 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 201202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201202 ILZ000-WIZ000-201330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 201202Z - 201330Z A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A LARGE MCS FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THE WRN EDGE OF THE MCS IS FEEDING UPON THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS ERN IA AND SW WI. A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALSO EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS SRN IA INTO NRN IL WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT AS FURTHER EAST...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 40718867 40248959 40599072 41889006 42788968 43078902 42698769 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 07:17:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 03:17:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 220715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220715 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-220815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AREA INTO CNTRL VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635... VALID 220715Z - 220815Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z. FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. DESPITE CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW REMAINS WEAK AHEAD OF MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH STILL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MINIMIZING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 36398013 37417956 38047836 37357732 36037733 34697891 33868002 33508147 34088244 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 14:11:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 10:11:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221409 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221409 RIZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-221545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...SERN NY...CT...MA...DE...RI...NJ...NERN MD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221409Z - 221545Z THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER E-CENTRAL PA... WARM FRONT ARCHES NEWD OVER SERN NY BETWEEN BGM-MSV...THEN ESEWD ACROSS CT/MA BORDER REGION. EXPECT WARM FRONT TO DRIFT NWD AS SFC LOW MOVES ENEWD...TOWARD SERN NY. MEANWHILE SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH APCH OF GREAT LAKES MID-UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN ENHANCED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKED FLOW NE-SE OF CYCLONE CENTER. 100 M HEIGHT FALL WAS NOTED IN 12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS AT PIT...WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED E OF LOW. IN FCST SOUNDINGS...THIS YIELDS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- I.E. 0-1 KM AGL SRH 100-200 J/KG -- AND AT LEAST MRGL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RATE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT...AND MODIFIED IAD/OKX RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE PARCELS ALREADY ARE ROOTED AT SFC OVER MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA. ONLY WEAK HEATING OF 2-4 DEG F IS NEEDED TO REMOVE REMAINING SBCINH. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 40577672 41427647 42337570 42627399 42457216 41947145 41247173 40877243 40557396 39867404 39317441 38957483 38947582 40077659 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 17:31:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 13:31:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221728 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS/NRN AND CNTRL AL/NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 221728Z - 221930Z PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH BETTER SHEAR NORTH OF THE SWD SAGGING FRONT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/INFLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT...SUFFICIENT COLD POOL ORGANIZATION IS QUESTIONABLE. IF STORMS DO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. MULTICELLULAR TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PULSE CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT AS WEAK CAP HAS BEEN REMOVED. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MODIFIED OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CELLS. MORNING RAOBS WERE ALSO FAIRLY SATURATED IN THE LOW/MID-LEVELS WITH PWATS NEAR TWO INCHES. THUS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH WEAK GENERAL STORM MOVEMENT THAT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AREA VAD PROFILERS INDICATE THAT 25 KT OR GREATER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS N TO JUST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..GRAMS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... 32688559 32258797 32438931 33218946 33728808 34328659 34938529 34968447 34818344 34208313 33128428 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 17:56:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 13:56:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221753 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/SRN WI...NRN IA...SRN MN...EXTREME NRN IL. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221753Z - 222030Z SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OVER REGION AS CINH WEAKENS...ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH THREAT OF SVR HAIL FROM MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. A FEW STRONG GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY W OF MS RIVER...WHERE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT INVOF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND SRN MN...WITH ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM ERN DAKOTAS SSEWD ACROSS ERN NEB. JUXTAPOSITION OF MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE OVER SRN MN AND NERN IA...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY ALREADY HAS INITIATED AND LIKELY IS BECOMING SFC-BASED OVER CENTRAL WI AS TEMPS RISE INTO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES INCREASING TO NEAR 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF AREA BY 21Z...AMIDST FAVORABLE SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S F. RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND PRESENCE OF WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GENERATED ALOFT TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44679505 44349241 44568963 44078804 42648844 42118968 41909126 43069520 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 18:14:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 14:14:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 221812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221812 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN VA...NRN NC...DC...MD W OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221812Z - 221915Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING AND WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR VA/MD PORTION OF THIS AREA. GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND E OF EWD-DRIFTING LEE TROUGH -- ANALYZED FROM DC AREA JUST W OF I-95 INTO NC. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...AMIDST RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC DIABATIC HEATING. RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT -- EVIDENT IN 12Z IAD RAOB -- IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE OF AREA CONCURRENT WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION AT SFC...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES RISING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER NE IN WW 636...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS/BOWS STILL ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO A RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38017528 37097586 36687631 36427750 36487877 36967849 38877710 39527610 38077645 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 20:46:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 16:46:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222044 CTZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...WRN-CENTRAL CT...SERN NY...DE...DC...PORTIONS ERN PA...CENTRAL/SRN MD...S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN VA. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...637... VALID 222044Z - 222215Z SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS WW AREAS. NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS NEAR PREFRONTAL TROUGH -- FROM NERN NJ SWWD TO NERN CHESAPEAKE BAY -- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS 626. MEANWHILE SEPARATE LINE OF CONVECTION INVOF SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NERN PA SWWD ACROSS ERN WV -- WILL APCH WRN PORTION OF BOTH WWS WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SVR GUSTS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SERN NY. WARM FRONT -- EXTENDING EWD THROUGH BOS AREA -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD TOWARD SRN VT/NH BORDERS. DESTABILIZATION TO ITS S OVER MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER AND IMPACTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FROM SWRN CT ACROSS SERN VA AND BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS...CLEARING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL INSOLATION. THIS...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F -- WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. LARGEST MLCAPES -- TO NEAR 1500 J/KG -- ARE EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN DELMARVA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAX DEW POINTS...AND MAY EXPAND NWD INTO NJ. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FROM NJ NEWD. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF CYCLONE...IN ONLY MRGLLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WW AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT VEERED -- MAINLY SSWLY TO SWLY -- LIMITING BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE AND CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 35-45 KT RANGE WITH APCH OF GREAT LAKES MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR ANY DISCRETE TSTMS...AND FOR SMALL BOWS...WITH ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON LOCAL SCALES AT STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OR IN BOW ECHO VORTICES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37707964 38857793 40717592 42287441 42437335 42067347 42017258 41267236 41037175 40587332 40287324 40227362 39597371 39027434 38647475 38187475 37577521 36937566 36537553 36538000 36848008 36837967 37117960 37238009 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 21:07:16 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 17:07:16 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222104 NVZ000-CAZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SRN SIERRAS/COASTAL RANGE AND DESERTS OF CA INTO SWRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222104Z - 222300Z ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA INTO SWRN NV. OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WELL-DEFINED MCV IN VIS IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY ROTATING SLOWLY NWWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGE NEWD INTO THE SRN SIERRAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 105 TO 120 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE CREATING DEEP INVERTED-V SIGNATURES IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. DCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURST WINDS IN ANY SUSTAINED CELLS. A 43 KT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT SDB WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ELY FLOW CONTAINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN BORDER. ..GRAMS.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...REV...HNX...LOX... 33741675 34371777 34551886 34771950 35161932 35521884 36531858 37161879 38001964 38481898 37931765 37171606 35171536 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 22 23:26:13 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2006 19:26:13 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 222324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222324 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...WRN CT...DE...ERN MD...ERN PA AND SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 222324Z - 230030Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 0636 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH 02Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. CURRENT PLANS ARE TO ALLOW THE WATCH TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IF DESIRED BY THE LOCAL WFOS. EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN NY SWWD THROUGH ERN PA INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS NE OF THE SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND DISPLACED FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES FARTHER S HAVE VEERED TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING ALONG WITH TENDENCY FOR STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ... 41347279 39887374 38147488 38107593 38967615 40927530 41947385 41957294 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 23 19:07:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2006 15:07:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231904 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-232200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SC...S-CENTRAL THROUGH ERN NC...SC...NRN/WRN GA...CENTRAL AL. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 231904Z - 232200Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z NEAR AXIS FROM MGM-CAE TO WRN SHORES PAMLICO SOUND...INCLUDING ATL AREA. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MULTICELL AND PULSE IN NATURE...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY SPORADIC AND LOCALIZED IN FORM OF DOWNBURSTS. SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NC PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND DECELERATE...FROM CENTRAL VA SWWD ACROSS WRN SC TO VICINITY BHM. RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 60S-LOW 70S F. DEW POINTS MIXED INTO LOW-MID 60S IN A FEW LOCALES FROM ERN GA TO ERN NC DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...COMBINING WITH WEAK AMBIENT LIFT TO SLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION APPEARS TO BE OFFSETTING THAT EFFECT AND AGAIN ENRICHING NEAR-SFC MOISTURE...AS HEATING INTENSIFIES IN FORMERLY CLOUDY AREAS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATED BAND OF MULTILEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS -- LEFT BEHIND BY ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT -- ERODING AWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE CONCENTRATED MOST DENSELY NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES NEAR FORMER CLOUD EDGES...HOWEVER BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING CINH INDICATES TSTMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM THOSE BOUNDARIES AS WELL. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER MOST OF REGION...KEEPING STORM ORGANIZATION DEPENDENT ON SMALL SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HOWEVER...MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF AREA...ACROSS OH/PA...MAY ENHANCE GRADIENTS ALOFT OVER PORTIONS NC. ..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31988851 32788793 33428675 34638208 35977875 35787622 34427779 33687917 31968477 31388653 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 23 19:34:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2006 15:34:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 231932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231931 MNZ000-WIZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/EXTREME NWRN WI/FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231931Z - 232130Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...ALONG A WARM FRONT AND/OR SURFACE TROUGH IN NRN MN. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND BAUDETTE TO DETROIT LAKES EWD TO A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT FROM CRANE LAKE TO NEAR DULUTH. AN ISOLATED CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR ORR ALONG THE FRONT. GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES WITH APPROACH OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SERN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY MIXING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FROM W TO E IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODIFIED 12Z INL OBSERVED AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES SHOULD MAXIMIZE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE 0-1 KM HELICITY WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH BACKED S/SE SURFACE FLOW. ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46499097 46139235 46189363 46489515 46799653 47919535 48919473 48619351 48489248 48069086 47629028 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 00:55:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2006 20:55:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 240053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240053 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/FAR NWRN WI/FAR WRN U.P. OF MI/FAR WRN LK SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638... VALID 240053Z - 240230Z SVR THREAT CONTINUES ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN MN INTO NWRN WI...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR WRN U.P. OF MI. A FEW TSTMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL MN...AND POTENTIALLY POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW. HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS OF LLJ FURTHER E INTO WARM FRONTAL ZONE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE LOW. SMALL LINEAR CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN MN. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL PASS ALONG THE ERN SIDES OF DULUTH INTO THE FAR WRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR SHORTLY. ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO NWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO POSE A WIND THREAT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN WI. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPED IN SRN MANITOBA ALONG A COLD FRONT...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE PAST HOUR. 00Z INL RAOB INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING TO THE E...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS QUESTIONABLE. THE WW COULD BE CLEARED EARLY IN THIS REGION IF TSTMS DO NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..GRAMS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...FGF... 47918941 47308935 46458932 45998973 45939066 46119159 46529252 47119322 48189610 48869814 48959532 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 17:51:52 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 13:51:52 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241749 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-241915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...WI..EXTREME SRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...EXTREME NWRN IA...NWRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241749Z - 241915Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL BE REQUIRED...MOSTLY OVER WI. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE INVOF ONTARIO LAKE SHORE OF NERN LS...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN WI...APCHG STC...AND INTO SD NEAR HON. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING...SUCH THAT SBCINH IS NEARLY GONE ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SFC DEW POINTS RANGE THROUGH 60S F TO NEAR 70...LOCALLY MAXIMIZED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS. MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN 12Z MSP RAOB AND PRESENCE OF AREAS OF ACCAS IN VIS IMAGERY...WITH LAPSE RATES APCHG 8 DEG C/KM. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG FROM SERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WSWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...HOWEVER LIFT NEAR FRONT AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL FROM MULTICELL/LINEAR MODES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44569650 45509313 45768850 45658746 45368679 44838678 44328825 43988997 43319487 43399622 43719632 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 20:06:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 16:06:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242004 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NWRN IA...S-CENTRAL/SERN SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN MN...W-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242004Z - 242200Z CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERALL...IN S-CENTRAL/SWRN MN W OF WW 639. ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS ALSO HAVE FORMED OVER SERN SD NW FSD...AND INVOF ONL. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER SD...WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS HON AREA TO BETWEEN STC-MSP. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AIR OVER CENTRAL/NRN IA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE BUT WILL BECOME MORE BUOYANT WITH CONTINUED HEATING. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS ERN MN...10-15 KT OVER SRN MN AND DRIFT ERRATICALLY E OF LOW. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE MOISTURE OVER NRN IA AND SRN MN...TRENDING TOWARD LOWER DEW POINTS IN HOTTER/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NEB/SRN SD WHERE SFC TEMPS ALREADY APCH 100 DEG F MOST AREAS. CONTINUED INSOLATION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN CINH AND...IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR S-CENTRAL SD INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN NEB...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. LOW LEVEL VEERING ALSO WILL BE STRONGER OVER SAME REGION,...WITH MORE SLY SFC WIND COMPONENT VWP/RUC HODOGRAPHS FROM FSD-ANW. THEREFORE SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL DOES EXIST...MAINLY IN FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND/OR COLD POOL-DRIVEN CONVECTION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42290102 43999965 44979580 44869456 43469297 43199294 42649368 42459565 41559877 40940144 41990283 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 20:32:46 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 16:32:46 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242029 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN MN...WI...SRN UPPER MI...NRN LM...NWRN LOWER MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639... VALID 242029Z - 242230Z TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO LINEAR CLUSTER ACROSS NRN WI. ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS IN TAYLOR COUNTY WI AND MRGLLY SVR HAIL IN SEVERAL LOCALES. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD THROUGH FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW LAYER OVER WI...BEFORE REACHING RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE MARINE LAYER OVER LM. WLY COMPONENT TO NEAR-SFC FLOW MAY SHUNT MARINE LAYER OFFSHORE SLIGHTLY AND/OR RENDER IT SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO EXTEND OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF E-CENTRAL/NERN WI AS WELL. REMAINS OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS CURRENTLY MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NEWD OVER SRN UPPER MI...MAY APCH PORTIONS NWRN LOWER MI IN 3-4 HOURS. HOWEVER...MARINE LAYER WILL GREATLY REDUCE MLCAPE OVER WATER AND FOR SEVERAL MILES INLAND...LIMITING SVR POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL WI AND SRN MN AMIDST 65-70 F SFC DEW POINTS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 45219293 45749113 45069028 45288844 46008735 45898632 45708557 45218523 44528583 43818694 43268820 43029116 43499125 43499305 44509301 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 23:23:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 19:23:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242320 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242320Z - 250045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SD...SWRN MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN SD IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ABOVE THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NEB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 42479546 42089777 42999860 44019787 44149510 43489444 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 24 23:44:39 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 19:44:39 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242342 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI/SERN MN/PORTION OF LK MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639... VALID 242342Z - 250045Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ISSUED...BUT WFOS MAY EXTEND WATCH LOCALLY IN TIME IF DESIRED. STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL WI. OTHER CELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR E-CNTRL MN AND PRODUCED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE TWIN CITIES AND A 54 KT WIND GUST MEASURED AT STP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS THESE CELLS MOVE FURTHER EWD...THEY WILL PROPAGATE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER MCS THAT IS CROSSING LK MI. WHILE THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT FROM CHISAGO COUNTY MN TO PRICE COUNTY WI. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST WITH THESE CELLS BRIEFLY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT. ..GRAMS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43758765 43258780 43559098 43919275 44939294 45489277 45699105 45488866 45238694 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 00:51:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 20:51:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 241749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241749 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-241915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...WI..EXTREME SRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...EXTREME NWRN IA...NWRN LM. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241749Z - 241915Z POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL BE REQUIRED...MOSTLY OVER WI. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE INVOF ONTARIO LAKE SHORE OF NERN LS...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN WI...APCHG STC...AND INTO SD NEAR HON. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING...SUCH THAT SBCINH IS NEARLY GONE ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SFC DEW POINTS RANGE THROUGH 60S F TO NEAR 70...LOCALLY MAXIMIZED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS. MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN 12Z MSP RAOB AND PRESENCE OF AREAS OF ACCAS IN VIS IMAGERY...WITH LAPSE RATES APCHG 8 DEG C/KM. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG FROM SERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WSWWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...HOWEVER LIFT NEAR FRONT AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL FROM MULTICELL/LINEAR MODES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 44569650 45509313 45768850 45658746 45368679 44838678 44328825 43988997 43319487 43399622 43719632  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 01:04:35 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 21:04:35 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242320 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242320Z - 250045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SD...SWRN MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN SD IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ABOVE THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NEB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 42479546 42089777 42999860 44019787 44149510 43489444  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 01:08:17 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 21:08:17 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242342 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI/SERN MN/PORTION OF LK MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639... VALID 242342Z - 250045Z SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ISSUED...BUT WFOS MAY EXTEND WATCH LOCALLY IN TIME IF DESIRED. STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL WI. OTHER CELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR E-CNTRL MN AND PRODUCED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL IN THE TWIN CITIES AND A 54 KT WIND GUST MEASURED AT STP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AS THESE CELLS MOVE FURTHER EWD...THEY WILL PROPAGATE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER MCS THAT IS CROSSING LK MI. WHILE THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT FROM CHISAGO COUNTY MN TO PRICE COUNTY WI. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST WITH THESE CELLS BRIEFLY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT. ..GRAMS.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 43758765 43258780 43559098 43919275 44939294 45489277 45699105 45488866 45238694  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 01:13:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 21:13:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 242321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242320 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242320Z - 250045Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SD...SWRN MN INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN SD IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ABOVE THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NEB MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY N OF PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 07/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 42479546 42089777 42999860 44019787 44149510 43489444  From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 02:24:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2006 22:24:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 250222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250221 MIZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 640... VALID 250221Z - 250345Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN TIP OF LOWER MI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER S. SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD THROUGH EXTREME NRN LOWER MI. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...SWD EXTENTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS LARGELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE WLY LOW LEVEL JET RELATIVE TO THE EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LIMITING DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE. THIS ALONG WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER LOWERS CONFIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER S. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX... 45078310 44358316 44038371 44148441 44768444 45528365 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 18:27:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 14:27:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251825 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY...NWRN PA...NRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251825Z - 252030Z ISOLATED SVR WIND AND HAIL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC BUT STORMS ARE STRENGTHENING WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS OF NRN NY AND VT. AREA WIND PROFILES WOULD CURRENTLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER WITH TIME CAUSING PROFILES TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. THUS...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH HAIL AND WIND...BUT TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUST REGIME. FARTHER SW...WELL DEFINED SECONDARY VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD ACROSS SW ONTARIO...WITH ASSOCIATED STORM CLUSTER. THIS CLUSTER HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING...BUT MAY REGENERATE ONCE IT GETS E OF LAKE EFFECT BOUNDARY/STABLE ZONE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING E OF THIS ZONE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL AS FAR NWRN PA...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 44967170 44277217 42777497 41807803 41718036 42757967 43277891 44257611 45047481 44997212 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 19:03:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 15:03:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251900 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/PARTS OF WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251900Z - 252030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME SEVERE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL WW. REGIONAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN MANITOBA INTO NERN-SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SRN MANITOBA. AIR MASS ACROSS SERN ND INTO NERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN...WHICH IS ALONG/S OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN GENERALLY NWD ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER...IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SERN ND SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATEST /30-35 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS...STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EDDY COUNTY ND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM STORM ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER...BUT THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR NERN ND/FAR NWRN MN BORDER SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER NWRN-NRN MN. ..PETERS.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 47369957 48159926 48989847 48949714 47539679 46889526 46509458 45159464 44859579 45029758 45439907 46010005 46620007 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 19:35:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 15:35:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 251932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251932 AZZ000-252230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 251932Z - 252230Z A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WW COULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS GET ORGANIZED. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL FETCH UP THE GULF OF CA INTO SWRN AZ WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2.00 INCHES. HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN AZ...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD AND SWWD WITH TIME. CONTINUED HEATING COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK IN GENERAL...ELY FLOW ALOFT ATOP SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY SHIFT SWWD. IN ADDITION...MODIFIED TUS SOUNDING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...PERHAPS AROUND 1.00 INCH DIAMETER. ..JEWELL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 32261389 34071250 34121092 33640935 31390955 31311105 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 23:37:15 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 19:37:15 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252334 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...MUCH OF IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252334Z - 260130Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO FROM PARTS OF ERN IA AND SPREAD INTO NRN IL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM ERN NEB THROUGH IA MOVING ESEWD. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA. ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS BOOSTED THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41668777 41218886 40909045 40529193 40809246 41819198 42219044 42388854 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 25 23:43:14 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 19:43:14 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 252341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252340 COR ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA THROUGH NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252340Z - 260130Z CORRECTED TO REMOVE ERN NEB AND NRN MO FROM MD THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO FROM PARTS OF ERN IA AND SPREAD INTO NRN IL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY. AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM ERN NEB THROUGH IA MOVING ESEWD. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA. ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS BOOSTED THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES. ..DIAL.. 07/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41668777 41218886 40909045 40529193 40809246 41819198 42219044 42388854 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 00:41:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 20:41:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260039 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260039Z - 260245Z POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT INITIATION IS IMMINENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH SERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER N CNTRL KS. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY SEPARATING DEEPLY MIXED...HOT...DRYER IN KS AIR FROM THE CLOUDY COOLER REGIME IN NEB/IA EXTENDS ACROSS NRN KS. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS/CONVECTION PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY FORM ERN NEB INTO IA AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN ESEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z RAOB FROM OMAHA SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW E OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN NEB VEERING TO WNWLY 35 KT AT 6 KM IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATION. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB INTO IA...WITH THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE EXPECTED FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH OUTFLOW DOMINANT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...FEED OF DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN STORMS DEVELOPING COLD POOLS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ESEWD PROPAGATING MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 41209362 40239530 40379709 41289741 41859563 42849393 42429303 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 01:04:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 21:04:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260101 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-260230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...NERN SD INTO W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 260101Z - 260230Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WW AREA NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO. CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO SERN SD IS MOVING S OF WW 642..BUT ANOTHER WW FARTHER S IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SERN ND INTO PARTS OF ERN SD AND CNTRL MN. THE 00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 37 KT WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NERN SD. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DECREASE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND CAP STRENGTHENS. STORMS FARTHER S ACROSS E CNTRL SD MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE MORE CLOUDY...STABLE REGIME TOWARD EXTREME SERN SD. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44629474 44029751 44579888 45499933 46319845 46409672 45999519 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 02:28:37 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2006 22:28:37 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260225 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-260400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN THROUGH NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643... VALID 260225Z - 260400Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN WI. FARTHER W OTHER STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE ACROSS EXTREME ERN MN. THIS LINE MAY POSE A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO WI WHERE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN EXHAUSTED. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG PERIPHERY OF STRATIFORM RAIN AREA FROM NRN WI INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45008747 44769001 45199321 45959302 46559250 46808906 46398738 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 04:14:27 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 00:14:27 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 260412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260411 AZZ000-260515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645... VALID 260411Z - 260515Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS SPREAD SWWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. TWO LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ONE MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN MARICOPA COUNTY AND ANOTHER MOVING NWD OUT OF EXTREME NRN PINAL COUNTY...ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MERGERS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER NERN MARICOPA COUNTY. STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY PROPAGATE SWWD INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SWRN AZ WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 100 AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. FLOW ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS RATHER WEAK ELY AT AROUND 10 KT AT 6 KM SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NOT MOVE PARTICULARLY FAST...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33741116 33331129 32461274 32691421 33711355 33621211 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 12:51:26 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 08:51:26 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261248 LAZ000-TXZ000-261445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX...CNTRL/SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261248Z - 261445Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. 30+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW...ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 1 KM AGL...IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT. MODELS SUGGEST THESE SURFACE WINDS MAY BEGIN TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY MID MORNING WITH INCREASING SURFACE HEATING/MIXING. HOWEVER... FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS INLAND OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 70S...THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES...AS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BY 15-18Z. ..KERR.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29549442 30449430 31119388 31309286 31119208 30779169 30539101 30409050 29788980 28898921 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 17:26:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 13:26:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 261724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261724 NCZ000-SCZ000-261930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...FAR SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261724Z - 261930Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SC...WITHIN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. MODIFIED 12Z CHS SOUNDING YIELDS 2000-2500 MLCAPE WHICH IS IN LINE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE IS NOT ANY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG HEATING...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THERMALS OVERCOMING RELATIVE WARM LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN 500-600 MB. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY STORMS TOWARD THE SE...WITH THREAT OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST MAINLY ACROSS ERN SC. ..JEWELL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32068083 34328207 35148197 35107986 34247884 33747847 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 20:23:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 16:23:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262019 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-262215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF MT/WRN ND/NWRN AND N CENTRAL SD... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262019Z - 262215Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE OVER NERN MT AS WELL AS SWRN AREAS SWRN ND AND NWRN SD. LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH ML CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT IS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...HIGH BASED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 48980502 48170537 46830480 44970390 44690191 44980037 45509871 46649937 48090076 48950276 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 20:39:38 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 16:39:38 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262036 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-262230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...FAR SERN WY AND NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262036Z - 262230Z STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND/OR WIND LIKELY. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS WY INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP STORMS FROM SERN WY INTO WRN NEB TO PERSIST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE MARGINAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT PERHAPS SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..JEWELL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41150444 42150505 43110466 42860271 42610059 41699950 41049917 40339976 40040130 40300313 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 21:11:43 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 17:11:43 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262108 UTZ000-262315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262108Z - 262315Z ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG LEAD EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN BOX ELDER COUNTY HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED IN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MANNER...THUS STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS SEWD INTO THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA. ..JEWELL.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC... 40881397 41751253 40961110 40331208 40551341 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 26 22:36:50 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 18:36:50 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 262234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262233 INZ000-ILZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262233Z - 270000Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM NEAR DEC WWD TO 30 WNW SPI AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO W-CNTRL IL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT...NEARER TO WEAK WNW-ESE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE LINE OR WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM UIN TO NEAR MTO. INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS ERN MO AND SWRN IL IS HOT AND QUITE MOIST WHICH IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL N OF THIS WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE/WARM FRONT WITH SRH VALUES OF AROUND 250 M2/S2 THROUGH THIS LAYER. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR/ WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT. ..MEAD.. 07/26/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39739075 40339079 40979035 41098899 40818807 40058748 39418767 39168829 39188919 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 27 01:38:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2006 21:38:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 270136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270135 INZ000-ILZ000-270300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646... VALID 270135Z - 270300Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING FROM MACON COUNTY NEWD INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY IL. 00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED A DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOIST PROFILE WHICH WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WAS OBSERVED THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY TORNADO THREAT TO DIMINISH AS MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...SUPPORTING COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION. FARTHER TO THE NE...MORE DISCRETE STORMS EXIST N OF LAF...AHEAD OF IL MCS. SRN-MOST STORM WHICH HAS DEVIATED LEFT OF THE MEAN WIND...HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER VERMILLION COUNTY IL. MODIFICATION OF WOLCOTT IND PROFILER FOR THIS STORM MOTION INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTING THAT ANY ADDITIONAL TORNADOES APPEAR UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/27/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40819060 41398998 41188815 41278720 41108666 40588653 39838690 39098722 38908751 39379004 39569084 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 01:38:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2006 21:38:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280139 MEZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL INTO NWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 280139Z - 280315Z THROUGH 03-04Z...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF A BMI TO SBN LINE. A GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES EXTENDING FROM ELKHART COUNTY IND SWWD IROQUOIS...FORD AND MCLEAN COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL IL AS OF 0130Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY MOVING 280-290/35 KTS INTO A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFICATION OF 00Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL OH VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF IND. SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 647 AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWING PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ASIDE FROM THIS...CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS ALONG LLJ INTO LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG TRACK OF MCS WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR... 46836975 47136937 47136888 47026845 46636836 46186873 46076935 46146985 46217006 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 02:13:49 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 27 Jul 2006 22:13:49 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 280214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280213 MNZ000-280315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648... VALID 280213Z - 280315Z WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z...OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STORMS OVER BECKER AND CASS COUNTIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS OF 0207Z...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. IT APPEARS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DIURNAL COOLING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION COUPLED WITH PASSAGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TO THE E ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THESE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THUS...REMAINING PORTION OF WW 648 WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 04Z EXPIRATION TIME. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46759603 47089625 47469617 48059516 47839405 47119337 46389381 46199477  From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 15:53:12 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 11:53:12 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281553 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-281830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO ERN MD AND DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281553Z - 281830Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO MID 70S...AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE E OF APPALACHIANS WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG FROM ERN MD/DE NWD TO SERN NY. BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN NY/PA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 18Z JUST E OF APPALACHIANS AS THE CURRENT WEAK CINH DISSIPATES. 30-35KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 20-25 KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES/BOWS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE WARM AND WEAK LAPSE RATES UNFAVORABLE FOR OTHER THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ..HALES.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 38757602 39097742 39557734 40397656 42157470 42617396 42867353 42697178 41547151 41387282 38957500 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 18:41:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 14:41:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281841 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-282045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WI AND U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281841Z - 282045Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN U.P. OF MICH. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BY 20Z. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD TO NEAR THE SD/ND/MN CONJUNCTION AT 18Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY EXPANDED/DEEPENED ACROSS NORTHERN WI/WESTERN U.P. OF MICH...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LACK OF APPRECIABLE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPLICATES TIMING/EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...FRONTAL FORCING/ADDITIONAL HEATING IN PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F/...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SREF/RUC GUIDANCE. MODIFIED 12Z MINNEAPOLIS RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...IN PRESENCE OF 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEMI-ISOLATED/LINE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR/SRH IS MODEST IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45378891 45109053 45169265 45759405 46989410 47619330 47829191 47139018 46618818 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 19:23:09 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 15:23:09 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 281924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281923 AZZ000-282130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AZ MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 281923Z - 282130Z SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE GRAND CANYON. 20-25KT NLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF AZ WITH UPPER LOW ALG NM/AZ CENTRAL BORDER. STORMS WILL MOVE/PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG AND 25-30 KT OF SHEAR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION GIVEN THE NEARLY 2IN OF PW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS CENTRAL AZ...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2/HR WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..HALES.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35461394 36151359 36531283 36451217 36041186 35781174 35421145 34981129 34591085 34341014 34140977 33670915 33030955 33661140 33901298 34181327 34571372 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 20:38:32 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:38:32 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282038 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO DELAWARE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 282038Z - 282145Z BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT 2030Z FROM WRN MA SWD THRU ERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE CONTINUE MOVING 27035. PRIMARY THREAT HAS BEEN DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LINE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND NEXT 1-2 HOURS WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. ..HALES.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ... 42837322 42767008 38197467 38227601 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 20:46:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:46:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282046 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MUCH OF OK/SOUTHERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 282046Z - 282245Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MUCH OF OK/SOUTHERN KS. ON THE FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/VORTICITY MAXIMA ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF OK...AND FAR SOUTHERN KS. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG OR HIGHER...MAXIMIZED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MICROBURST/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS...WEAK WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE THREAT RATHER PULSE/ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MICROBURSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... 37120062 37589886 37799670 37249560 35909568 35269578 34199679 33500049 34180121 35440138 36940086 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 22:39:00 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 18:39:00 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282239 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-290015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 282239Z - 290015Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH...WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT AND LAKE-ENHANCED PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT...WITH PERSISTENT TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL U.P. OF MICH/NORTHERN LAKE MICH...WESTWARD TO AROUND 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DULUTH. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG -- HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MN -- PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. AIDED BY A MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS...LARGELY ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...SOME WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY EXIST EARLY THIS EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE/SLIGHTLY COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ..GUYER.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46909445 47279315 47269122 46968864 46288670 45258768 45318965 45509164 45599345 46039425 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 28 22:55:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 18:55:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 282257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282256 MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-290030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SD INTO ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282256Z - 290030Z THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS/ IS INCREASING OVER NWRN SD INTO SWRN ND. A POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING FROM S-CNTRL INTO ERN ND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SWRN MT WITH AN ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED EWD NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER...AND A PRESSURE TROUGH TRAILING THIS LOW INTO NERN WY. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 100-110F S OF THIS LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD...WHICH IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CUMULUS/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER HARDING COUNTY SD INTO BOWMAN COUNTY ND. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TO NEAR 600 MB WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN MT/WRN ND COUPLED WITH THIS HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR AND N OF 2WX EWD TO N OF MBG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 40-45 KTS OF MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW ARE RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. A POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 29/03Z N OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM S-CNTRL INTO ERN ND WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LLJ. HERE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE INCREASING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION/CAP WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPES. HERE TOO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 45930404 46250367 46740267 47410062 47739934 47999717 47359663 46249681 45829877 45560093 45520355 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 00:34:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 20:34:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290035 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 290035Z - 290200Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI/U.P. OF MICH...WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICH AND NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING...NAMELY FOCUSED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND LAKE-ENHANCED PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT. THESE STORMS...INCLUDING BOTH RIGHT AND LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS...HAVE HAD OF HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...INCLUDING A RECENTLY MEASURED GUST OF 42 KTS AT ASHLAND WI /AT 2351Z/. OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...THE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE. THE 00Z OBSERVED MINNEAPOLIS RAOB CAPTURES THE VERY UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE SOURCE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPES ESTIMATED TO BE 1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WW 650...HIGHEST WITH WEST EXTENT. AS SUPPORTED BY DULUTH/MARQUETTE WSR-88D VWPS...VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46599325 46729289 47039099 46968864 46258641 45038772 45238935 45459184 45579318 46239351 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 01:16:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 21:16:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290116 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-290245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/W-CNTRL AZ INTO FAR SRN NV INTO SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651... VALID 290116Z - 290245Z SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE OVER WRN PART OF WW 651 /NAMELY MOHAVE COUNTY/ THROUGH 03Z. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND THIS TIME...PERHAPS DEVELOPING WWD INTO PARTS OF CLARK COUNTY NV AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SERN CA. AS OF 01Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM 63 S SGU TO 50 SSE IGM WITH A GENERAL MOTION OF 040/25 KTS. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THIS CLUSTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM /EXHIBITING SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ 63 S SGU. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 14 G/KG WHICH WERE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER CIRCULATION ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER WAS RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS WW AREA. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS ACROSS FAR SRN NV INTO SERN CA /WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 102-108F/ REMAINS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR WSWWD PROPAGATION OF WRN AZ MCS. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH WWD EXTENT...STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 36571350 35951311 35191287 34191351 34061469 34221549 34621606 35201620 36181601 36601575 36801492 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 02:07:05 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006 22:07:05 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290207 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-290300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI INTO E-CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 290207Z - 290300Z SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST BEYOND 03Z...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. AS OF 0155Z...DULUTH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN WI MOVING GENERALLY 320/20 KTS. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT REGENERATIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY...PERHAPS WHERE 15-20 KT SWLY LLJ IS IMPINGING ON LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BASED ON DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN UPSTREAM AIR MASS AS OBSERVED BY 00Z MPX SOUNDING /MLCAPES AOA 3000-4000 J/KG/...THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THESE PROCESSES MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 03Z OVER NRN WI INTO E-CNTRL MN. 35-45 KTS OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE SMALL-SCALE BOW STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45839381 46289352 46639248 46799144 46368993 45918902 45238932 44949014 44859177 45009322 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 04:47:40 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 00:47:40 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290448 MNZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290448Z - 290615Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL SPREAD E OF WW 652 BY 0530Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORMAN INTO MAHNOMEN COUNTIES IN MN ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. THUS FAR...REFLECTIVITY AND IR SATELLITE DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT QUITE WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND RESULTANT CAP /PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/ HAS DILUTED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE AS STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ND. HOWEVER...BASED ON RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 00Z MPX OBSERVED SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT CAPPING WEAKENS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL MN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONGOING ELEVATED STORM COMPLEX FROM E OF BIS TO NEAR AND JUST E OF FAR MAY BEGIN TO INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 47449550 47649534 47659442 47409372 46679298 46009345 45709412 45609458 45699502 45779557 46099565 46399554 46859544 47209552 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 06:04:58 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 02:04:58 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290605 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 290605Z - 290700Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN ND AND NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN NRN ND. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN...THE STORM UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE ELEVATED AND THE COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN A STRONGER FRONTAL INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. THIS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUING SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATCH WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45969868 47659877 47779652 48009450 47369390 46189513 45929676 45999803 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 06:11:08 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 02:11:08 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290611 COR MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 290611Z - 290700Z CORRECTED FOR MD GRAPHIC ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN ND AND NWRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN NRN ND. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN...THE STORM UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE ELEVATED AND THE COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN A STRONGER FRONTAL INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. THIS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUING SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATCH WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45969868 47659877 47779652 48009450 47369390 46189513 45929676 45999803 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 06:23:54 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 02:23:54 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290624 WIZ000-290730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... VALID 290624Z - 290730Z WW 653 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z...THOUGH STORMS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SEVERE THREAT MAY END BEFORE SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION. LINE OF SWD MOVING STORMS EXTENDED FROM 40 NW OF GRB TO NEAR EAU. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED MESO HIGH THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR AUW. THE STORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOCATED ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH EXTENDED S-N ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE COLD POOL/MESOHIGH MAY STILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THOUGH AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END BY 08Z. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45239255 45899255 46199157 45949016 45468904 44638924 44208931 44279030 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 09:41:25 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 05:41:25 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 290942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290941 WIZ000-MNZ000-291045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WI AND MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654... VALID 290941Z - 291045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI UNTIL 13Z. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAD MOVED INTO EXTREME NWRN WI AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR ASX TO 70 S DLH. THE LINE WAS MOVING SEWD AT 45 KT AND THE RAPID MOTION OF THE LINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SUGGEST THAT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES. HOWEVER...EAST OF THE WATCH...THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE AND THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE ERN END OF THE WATCH BETWEEN 1100-1200Z. OTHER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN AND WILL BE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HAIL. ..IMY.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 46369517 45948977 44989009 45369526 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 15:59:11 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 11:59:11 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291559 NYZ000-MIZ000-291730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEW YORK INTO N CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291559Z - 291730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND AHEAD OF WEAKER IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN. TONGUE OF MOIST AIR ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AND WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT INCREASING... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH FURTHER INSOLATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN SHORTLY...BUT SCATTERED STORMS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN... BUT AS MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...RISK FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST FEW DOWNBURSTS...ENHANCED BY WEAK TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...DTX...APX...GRR... 45148369 45248162 45038020 44707879 44027591 43637488 42207459 42057675 42577947 43148160 43478330 43998482 44758495 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 17:51:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 13:51:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291752 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-291945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN GA AND PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS OF NC AND SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291752Z - 291945Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN GA INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS OF BOTH NC AND SC. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC/SC APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AMPLE INSOLATION/TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S AMIDST A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IS LEADING TO A EROSION OF SURFACE BASED CINH ACROSS EASTERN GA AND PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS OF NC/SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ATTRIBUTABLE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MID LEVEL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE. WSR-88D VWP FROM GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG CAPTURES ENHANCED LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW VIA THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH 25-35 KT WESTERLY WINDS EVIDENT BETWEEN 1-6 KM. THIS MODESTLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS/ORGANIZATION FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SPREADS EASTWARD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/SOME LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34098373 34088251 34988110 36087964 36177815 35777701 34547773 33937891 32898023 32288243 32748352 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 18:50:28 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:50:28 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291851 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE SD...SE ND...W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291851Z - 292015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. NORTHEAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF PIERRE...STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FOCUSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF SURFACE FRONT AND REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY BETWEEN ABERDEEN AND FARGO. INHIBITION IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PERTURBATION CRESTING UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADS REGION. STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 4000 J/KG...AND...AS CAP ERODES...RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH... PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER THROUGH MID LEVELS IS CREATING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS APPEAR A MORE PROMINENT THREAT BY 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46159838 46779665 46589550 45489550 45059653 45539800 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 18:54:41 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:54:41 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 291856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291855 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL/WESTERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 291855Z - 292100Z STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL INTO WESTERN GA. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS MCV MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN TN INTO FAR NORTHERN MS/NORTHWEST AL. TIED TO THIS FEATURE...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/MS/GA. THIS BOUNDARY /AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG IT/ WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER UPLIFT/PARCELS REACHING THEIR LFC AND A MODEST FOCUS...WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF AL/EASTERN MS/WESTERN GA. LOCAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THE MCV MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PULSE IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/SOME LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT/SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32418482 32278636 32698884 34278927 34168796 34168629 33998450 33468375 32698381 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 20:17:20 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 16:17:20 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292018 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/FAR WESTERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292018Z - 292215Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/FAR WESTERN KY. ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TENNESSEE VALLEY MCV...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS/RESIDUAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY SOUTH-NORTH ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM NEAR QUINCY IL...TO NEAR ST LOUIS...TO AROUND FARMINGTON MO. THE AIRMASS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR IS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 3000-4000 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK /20 KTS OR LESS PER ST LOUIS AND PADUCAH WSR-88D VWPS/...THE HIGH INSTABILITY REGIME AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 38759190 40199144 40039050 37508872 36538901 35419084 36919178 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 20:52:48 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 16:52:48 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292052 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN NY...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...656... VALID 292052Z - 292215Z CONTINUE WWS 655 AND 656. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED. A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH/ SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 25 TO 35 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS SHOULD INCREASE EAST OF BUFFALO THROUGH AROUND 22Z. AND...THOUGH CAPE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH TEMPS AROUND 90F/ AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH LEAD CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 23-00Z. ..KERR.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 43387712 43037581 42867464 41717350 41237342 41017429 41547566 42017715 42807805 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 29 21:59:22 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2006 17:59:22 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 292200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292159 GAZ000-ALZ000-292330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292159Z - 292330Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH 00Z...INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM TO AROUND ALEXANDER CITY/SELMA/MONTGOMERY. WHILE MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AL...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL HAS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF AL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS DRIVING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR AS OF 2145Z. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING MEASURED GUSTS OF 48 KTS AT BIRMINGHAM AROUND 21Z...WITH A 37 KT GUST AT TUSCALOOSA AT 2106Z. FURTHER SE PROPAGATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TOWARD THE ALEXANDER CITY/SELMA/MONTGOMERY VICINITIES...VIA 15 KTS OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. ..GUYER.. 07/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... 32248589 32298764 32648822 33148796 33408669 33718569 33288518 32388519 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 30 22:32:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2006 18:32:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 302234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302233 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-310030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0533 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN OH...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL...NWRN PA...EXTREME WRN NY...LE. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661... VALID 302233Z - 310030Z OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING ACROSS WW AREA...BUT STILL REMAINS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN OH AHEAD OF REMNANT MCS AND ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MCS HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER LE AND SERN ONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND LESS DIABATICALLY HEATED LAKE AIR. HOWEVER...FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. THIS POTENTIAL EXTENDS FROM ERN PORTIONS WW ACROSS WRN PA AND WRN-MOST NY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES THROUGH 00Z WILL TREND FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN CENTRAL OH TO 1000 J/KG OVER SWRN UPSTATE NY. TSTMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY -- IN AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY CMH...CLE...YNG...PIT -- MAY BRIEFLY PULSE INTENSELY ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WIND...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS OF 22Z...WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE LINE CLE...20 WSW TOL...20 NNW FWA...LAF...10 NE DNV...45 SSW ORD. SLGT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY THAT PORTION WHICH HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN INDIANA AND NWRN OH. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE...GIVEN WEAK FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY. FARTHER W...MULTICELL TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD ALONG OR JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED/MRGL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41228816 40668742 40678562 41328286 42148188 42517976 42917890 42957892 43067901 43287906 43397848 42807832 41787873 40618060 40148068 40158216 39868222 39878241 39548254 39568286 39798284 39798324 40088322 40098351 40218352 40258398 40178437 40368445 40188716 40198812 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 00:08:19 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2006 20:08:19 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310009 NDZ000-MTZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MT...NWRN ND. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310009Z - 310145Z CAP HAS BROKEN ACROSS NERN MT N-NE OF OLF...WITH RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION UNDERWAY AS OF 2350Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH MAY REMAIN S OF CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE INTO NWRN ND. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH AREA OF CONUS AFFECTED WOULD BE RELATIVELY SMALL. SFC DATA AND GGW LOW-DBZ REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE QUASISTATIONARY AND NE-SW ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BAND FROM SERN VALLEY COUNTY NEWD ACROSS WRN SHERIDAN COUNTY MT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL GIVEN VERY LIGHT/NELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES WITH 55-65 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATED. DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTIONS FOR MATURE STORMS WOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OVER NARROW AREA JUST S OF CANADIAN BORDER INTO NWRN ND...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO CROSS INTO CANADA BEFORE SUCH RIGHTWARD TURN. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY BUOYANT...AS SFC DEW POINTS AND MLCAPES EACH INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO OFFSET EFFECTS OF WEAKENING DIABATIC HEATING. MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT BASED ON MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS FROM RUC MODEL. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS POLEWARD OF SFC FRONT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS STILL WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF GUSTS/HAIL TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 48990134 48510218 48220355 48240473 48450565 49010442 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 01:56:47 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 30 Jul 2006 21:56:47 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310157 MNZ000-NDZ000-310400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL-NERN ND...PORTIONS NWRN MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310157Z - 310400Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS REGION...FURTHER ORGANIZING SVR THREAT. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. INITIALLY ELEVATED AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY AND INTO MUCH MORE ROBUST SFC-BASED ACTIVITY NW BIS...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN BIS-DVL...EACH N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR BIS...CLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS HARDING COUNTY SD...WARM FRONT ENEWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30 N FAR. NWD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH CINH APPEARS LARGE FOR SFC BASED PARCELS N OF FRONT...EFFECTIVE PARCELS DO REACH SFC BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY -- MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG -- IS SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F. ONLY SLOW DIABATIC SFC COOLING IS EXPECTED...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC. DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PROFILES -- I.E. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MOST AREAS -- INDICATE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE TSTMS...AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE. STRONGEST LLJ WILL REMAIN FARTHER E ACROSS NRN MN/LS REGION. HOWEVER...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE ESPECIALLY JUST N OF FRONT...WHERE NELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENLARGE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH. ..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47589894 47370068 47150181 47450237 48450170 48990003 48959628 47689642 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 06:29:01 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 02:29:01 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 310630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310629 MNZ000-310800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL/NERN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310629Z - 310800Z STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM NWRN MN INTO THE FAR SRN PARTS OF NWRN ONTARIO...AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF N CENTRAL/NERN MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN MN WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE CAPPING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD CONFINE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE MN BORDER COUNTIES OF KOOCHICHING/NRN ST LOUIS/NRN LAKE AND COOK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT SUGGESTING LIMITED OVERALL SWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF 45-50 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY LARGE CAPE INDICATES STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN MN WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..WEISS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47849399 48109444 48689448 48569302 48249086 47998944 47558955 47439106 47709324 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 11:58:29 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 07:58:29 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311159 MNZ000-WIZ000-311400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 311159Z - 311400Z EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN MN/ONTARIO BORDER HAVE MOVED EWD AND WEAKENED ACCORDING TO RADAR/IR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA...AS A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGED SEWD WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A STRONG CAP. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THIS REGION. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE WW 663 MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 14Z. ..WEISS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH... 46899080 46829180 46949258 47329312 48199297 48529270 48309138 48058978 47928942 47039004 46729037 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 18:11:33 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 14:11:33 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 311813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311812 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-312015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 311812Z - 312015Z HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED. PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED IN A POST FRONTAL BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER...AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD BECOME EXCESSIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS GRADUALLY EVOLVES. THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS FROM BEMIDJI/THIEF RIVER FALLS SOUTHWARD THROUGH FARGO/ABERDEEN...PERHAPS CHAMBERLAIN SD BY 21-22Z. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN...BUT PRECIPITATION LOADING AND LOWER LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONG CELLS. AS ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES...GUST FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW COULD STRENGTHEN AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD MORE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. ..KERR.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44689920 45819863 47549695 48489489 47989322 47229390 46889452 46049650 45539695 45159738 44269845 43609945 44179934 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 22:37:42 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 18:37:42 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312238 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN-CENTRAL-NERN NEB...SWRN MN...SERN SD...NWRN KS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312238Z - 010115Z TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN NE-SW ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM SW MN TO NW KS...WITH ISOLATED/SHORT-LIVED DAMAGING WIND AMD MRGL SVR HAIL EVENTS PSBL. POTENTIAL SHOULD PEAK BEFORE SUNSET THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL MN...NEAR SW EDGE WW 664...SWWD NEAR LINE FROM MHE...OGA...LIC...AS OF 22Z. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE SEWD 10-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA...GRADUALLY OVERTAKING PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND CONFLUENCE LINE THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM LAA...BBW...40 SE ANW. LIFT ALONG FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...AS WELL AS INTENSE SFC HEATING WITH WARM SECTOR TEMPS AOA 100 F...IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL OCCUR LOCALLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS. DEEP LAYER OF 20-40 KT LOW LEVEL SWLY/SSWLY FLOW IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF FRONT...HOWEVER WEAKER MIDLEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO VERY SMALL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FCST SLOW STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO FRONT/TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONT -- INDICATES EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL REGIME WITH MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY BEING UNDERCUT BY FRONTS/OUTFLOWS...AND RELATIVELY SHORT LIFESPAN FOR ANY GIVEN TSTM OR SMALL CLUSTER. MLCAPES NOW IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE -- BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS -- SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 1Z WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. ..EDWARDS.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD... 38950169 41000169 45699570 43909572 WWWW From mcd at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 31 23:18:23 2006 From: mcd at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 19:18:23 -0400 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: ACUS11 KWNS 312320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312319 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NY AND VT/NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 312319Z - 010115Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NY INTO PORTIONS OF VT/NH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IN EXTREME EASTERN ONTARIO NEAR OTTAWA...WITH ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR A WARM FRONT...WITH FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED AS TSTMS SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST NY AND PORTIONS OF VT/NH TONIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MODESTLY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. AS CAPTURED VIA THE BURLINGTON VT WSR-88D VWP...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES /VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS AND/OR SMALL SCALE BOWS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 07/31/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43747569 44417592 45307399 45127172 44827129 43827156 43627257 43347458 WWWW