[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 20 16:32:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201632 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-202130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO...SERN NEB...SRN/CENTRAL/ERN IA
AND NWRN/WCENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 201632Z - 202130Z

A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SCENTRAL NEB
NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD AND EXTEND
FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY NERN IA BY 21Z. HRLY RATES
WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND MAY EXCEED 1 INCH/HR FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD.
FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
OCCUR OVER NERN KS AND NRN MO...WITH MODERATE SNOW  LIKELY OVER
SCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS
SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z. CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH HRLY LIQUID EQUIV. RATES UP TO
0.10 IN.

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS
DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS INTO FAR SCENTRAL NEB. THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SCENTRAL KS
HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASING TREND IN LOW LEVEL WAA/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM NRN KS INTO WRN IA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOCATED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER /PER REGIONAL
PROFILER DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY NARROW HVY SNOW
BAND FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH 21Z. DRY AIR
INITIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE WITH THE ONSET OF
THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE BAND. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING
COEXISTENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...AND WITH THE
RELATIVELY SLOW NATURE OF THE BAND MOVEMENT...UP TO A 2 HR DURATION
OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONTOGENETIC HEAVY
SNOWFALL BAND MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO NERN IA BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA OVER CENTRAL/ERN
IA.

FURTHER SOUTH...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA...ALONG WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER NERN KS
INTO NRN MO AND SRN IA. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE RISES OVER SRN IA/NCENTRAL MO. CONSEQUENTLY THE SFC
FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SWD OVER NRN MO/NERN KS. WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT /CENTERED AROUND 850 MB/ MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NERN KS/NRN MO WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NRN MO...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED RECENTLY...HRLY PRECIP
RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS
FAR NORTH AS SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

43019300 41849586 40279775 39939774 39179700 38699580
38999339 40229085 40929045 42469129 

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