[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Jan 19 23:51:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 192351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192350 
COZ000-200415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 192350Z - 200415Z

MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS DURATION THROUGH 06Z.

SNOW IS ONGOING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY...WITH
SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
INTO THE PUEBLO VICINITY AND MUCH OF PUEBLO/CUSTER/HUERFANO
COUNTIES. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS IMPULSE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE/EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL -- REFERENCE
WSR-88D VWP FROM DENVER/PUEBLO -- AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOW RATES
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINOUS EAST SLOPES/ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR
SUGGEST SEVERAL HOURS OF VERTICAL PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE
OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH WELL-SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF PUEBLO...A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED UPON
EFFECTIVE SATURATION.

..GUYER.. 01/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

39350486 39340377 38860368 38430412 37950437 37230475
37540548 37980568 38370581 38750579 39210539 

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