[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 13 07:47:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 130748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130747 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-130915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...MS AND ERN/CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130747Z - 130915Z

WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM FROM WT 14. 

UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE INTENSITY HAS BEEN STEADY STATE OR ON A SLOW
DECLINE SINCE 06Z AS IT OUT PACES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS HINT...HOWEVER...THAT A
STRONGER IMPULSE IS BEGINNING TO TURN EWD ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK. 
AS THIS STRONGER ASCENT MIGRATES TOWARD THE MS RVR...TSTM INTENSITY
SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO INCREASE WITHIN THE LINE...AND PERHAPS
AHEAD OF IT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 60-65 DEGREES F WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE MS
DELTA AND CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.  GIVEN SIGNIFICANT CROSS-FRONT COMPONENT TO THE
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ATOP SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT CNTRL MS
SWD TO THE GULF COAST...THE HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST
THERE.

FARTHER N...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT.  GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOWER...MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN NRN MS AND WRN TN WILL BE HAIL OR
PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 01/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...

31458917 30168955 30199047 30599157 31489129 32889053
34399036 36438939 36458770 35838763 34468798 

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