[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 2 12:44:30 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021245 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NRN FL/SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021245Z - 021315Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.

12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN GA WWD
INTO SERN AL...AND THEN NNWWD ACROSS AL.  RICH MOISTURE RESIDES
ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 F...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THIS
REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
12Z SOUNDINGS AT TLH/BHM SUGGEST LITTLE SURFACE HEATING IS REQUIRED
/SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S AT TLH/ FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED.  THUS...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SOON FOR SERN GA...FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.

..PETERS.. 01/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

30168748 31358665 31558447 31748252 31158198 30088257
29868412 29508519 

WWWW