From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 12:55:06 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 07:55:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601011256.k01Cuk8X015796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011255 MTZ000-011630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN INTO ERN MT CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 011255Z - 011630Z A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT /LIBERTY TO BLAINE COUNTIES/ SEWD INTO CUSTER COUNTY. RATES SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOURS. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN ALBERTA SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT TO ERN WY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE BELOW 32 F AND GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. 12Z SOUNDING AT GGW SHOWED A LAYER OF WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 F LOCATED ATOP THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL MOISTENING AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 18Z IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..PETERS.. 01/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49041191 48990832 48440739 46720511 45970456 45670629 46820826 47981051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 18:02:56 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 13:02:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601011804.k01I4YUD017442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011803 SDZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 011803Z - 012230Z FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON /WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATION/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING THE PIERRE/PHILLIP AREAS AND CHEYENNE RIVER VICINITY. HOURLY LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS KS AS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD...OWING TO DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/ELEVATED THETA-E WRAPPING N/NW INTO SD/NEB AND OVERALL PERSISTENT NATURE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT. SIMILAR TO VERTICAL WET BULB PROFILES FROM OBSERVED 12Z RAPID CITY/ABERDEEN SD RAOBS...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO ELEVATED MELTING LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. ..GUYER.. 01/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45690147 45430060 44839965 44199945 43759981 43610033 43560121 43760267 45350287 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 19:36:36 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 14:36:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601011938.k01JcCPx019160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011936 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LA/SERN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011936Z - 012100Z MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- NEAR AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER ERN LA/SRN MS -- THOUGH DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO BE HINDERED BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION PER LATEST WSR-88D VWPS...WHICH SHOW FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING AND INCREASING WITH HEIGHT YIELDING STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED STORM OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF S OF BVE -- WITHIN A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE/RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE ENVIRONMENT -- IS NOW EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS STORM IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIMITED HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITHIN ELEVATED/WARM ADVECTION STORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL GA...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS VORT MAX/DRY SLOT CONTINUES EWD. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND ASSOCIATED LOW LCLS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL ALONG WITH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO. ..GOSS.. 01/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 29338969 31238866 32168772 31708569 30508497 29578485 30258648 30038852 28828906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 00:37:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 19:37:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020039.k020dT9i015652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020038 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE SD/NE NEB INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 020038Z - 020445Z INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SCNTRL AND SE SD...NORTHEAST NEB...INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED/ARCING DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD...WCNTRL NEB...AND FAR NRN IA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS ERN KS. AS THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES THIS EVENING...21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST SREF CONSENSUS SUGGEST AN E/SE EXTRAPOLATION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR 850 MB MELTING LAYER LOCATED ABOVE NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/SE ACROSS FAR SCNTRL/SE SD INTO NE NEB/FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THROUGH 06Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43949364 43249337 42859570 42099722 41829843 42389995 43450156 44270161 44710018 44109953 43739792 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 01:20:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 20:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020122.k021MVMj027179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020121 CAZ000-020615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020121Z - 020615Z HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS OF CA. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6500 FT. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS...STRONG PACIFIC UPPER JET/DPVA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLY EVENING MESONET OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA ARE GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500-7000 FT...WITH PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LIKELY YIELDING LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COMMON THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 38842024 38511964 37861902 36771808 36221793 36161828 36671883 37421934 37991985 38372012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 01:54:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 20:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020156.k021u1aX003632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020155 MOZ000-ARZ000-020400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020155Z - 020400Z PORTIONS OF NRN AR AND SRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MAINLY AFTER 04Z. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SERN STATES NWWD THROUGH NRN MS INTO NRN AR...SWRN MO TO A SURFACE LOW IN SERN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NERN TX THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO SERN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS AR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH OK. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO CNTRL AND NRN AR AND SRN MO LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE EVENING FROM PARTS OF SRN MO INTO EXTREME NRN AR WHERE CAP IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER. CAP INCREASES FARTHER SWD INTO AR...AND THIS MAY LIMIT SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BECOME CLOSE TO SURFACE BASED IF THEY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR AND EXTREME SRN MO...BUT SHOULD INITIALLY BE ELEVATED FARTHER NWD INTO MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE STABLE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36189345 37939340 38259168 37078970 35968987 34889100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 02:25:42 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 21:25:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020227.k022RIUh012445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020226 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-020430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1... VALID 020226Z - 020430Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF WW 001. THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA THROUGH SRN MS NWWD INTO N CNTRL MS. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NWWD WITH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH SRN AL NEWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS OVERSPREAD THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY ONGOING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE NEW STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FARTHER WEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF WW 001 THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31168339 30768402 30318597 30298752 31758743 31988567 31818438 31778393 32048319 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 07:24:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 02:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020726.k027QTuE016178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020725 ILZ000-MOZ000-020900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020725Z - 020900Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN MO AND WRN IL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN MO ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW ENTERED WRN MO. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS MO...SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -20 C AT 500 MB/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AHEAD OF EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38969346 40119318 40289128 40218998 39268938 38028930 37409006 37169094 37359221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 09:00:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 04:00:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020902.k0292Ovp007201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020901 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN/FAR SERN MO/WRN KY/SRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2... VALID 020901Z - 021000Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 002 FROM SERN MO INTO WRN KY THROUGH 12Z. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN AND THEN ACROSS AL TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE REGION. A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN/CENTRAL AR TO NERN TX. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCLUDING STORMS OVER FAR NERN PART OF WW 002 AND EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SSEWD TO SERN STATES IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ZONE OF WAA ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. TO THE WEST OF THIS WAA REGIME...AIR MASS IS CAPPED AS INDICATED WITH THE 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AT JAN...THUS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONGEST FORCING ATTM AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS MO TOWARD IL AIDING IN THE ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITHIN WW 003. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SRN EXTENT OF CURRENT MO/IL ACTIVITY SSEWD INTO NRN PART OF WW 002 TOWARD 12Z. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34219108 35889096 37248973 37888894 37818680 35568728 33688827 33669027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 10:30:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 05:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021032.k02AWTND029966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021031 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-021130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WRN AND SRN IL/SERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3... VALID 021031Z - 021130Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN WW 003. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE LOW HAS MOVED EWD INTO CENTRAL MO TO THE NNW OF COU...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO THE N OF STL AND THEN SEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO WRN KY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MO ALONG/E OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD INTO CENTRAL AR. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED STRONG LOW-LEVEL HELICITY /0-3 KM SRH RANGING FROM 300-450 M2/S2/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. PRIMARY THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN MO INTO WRN/SRN IL. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND SERN IA TO THE NORTH OF WW 003. LIMITED INSTABILITY N OF WW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS N OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 36549113 37809157 38369240 38679274 39889238 41129289 41099129 40618925 40108840 38528767 37928807 37458945 36539025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 12:01:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 07:01:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021203.k02C35PX014184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021201 CAZ000-021800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 021201Z - 021800Z HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS PROVIDING FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. ..LEVIT.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 36081817 36771777 37261788 37751837 38191903 38281961 37921990 37541970 37051924 36621894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 12:44:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 07:44:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021246.k02Ck4Mt029508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021245 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NRN FL/SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021245Z - 021315Z TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN GA WWD INTO SERN AL...AND THEN NNWWD ACROSS AL. RICH MOISTURE RESIDES ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THIS REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT TLH/BHM SUGGEST LITTLE SURFACE HEATING IS REQUIRED /SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S AT TLH/ FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. THUS...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR SERN GA...FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30168748 31358665 31558447 31748252 31158198 30088257 29868412 29508519 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 13:13:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 08:13:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021314.k02DEvu1008259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021314 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-021345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO WEST CENTRAL IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3... VALID 021314Z - 021345Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO WEST CENTRAL IND. AT 12Z...SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN MO WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM FAR ERN MO INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E THEN SE FROM THE SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IL. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD THIS MORNING INTO WRN IND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM TAZEWELL COUNTY IL SWD TO BOLLINGER COUNTY MO. STRONG AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT/SHEAR OVERSPREADING IL/IND ATOP THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN MAINTAINING ONGOING LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 37519013 38758989 39969044 40418997 40608863 40548692 38748658 38568846 38208941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 13:56:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 08:56:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021358.k02DwI8k025944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021357 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/FAR NERN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4... VALID 021357Z - 021530Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 004. LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN EXTENT OF SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING INTO FAR NERN AR. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF STORMS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. 09Z RUC AND 00Z WRF-NMM4 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING SQUALL LINE INTO PARTS OF WRN TN THIS MORNING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS WRN TN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW LATER THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 35039067 36588993 37918980 38558868 38638696 35128685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 15:46:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 10:46:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021547.k02Flxeu017223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021547 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-021715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021547Z - 021715Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS/HORIZONTAL ROLLS HAVE DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF AL. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS AL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO THE W OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM W OF RMG TO E OF ANB TO AUO AND THEN SEWD INTO SWRN GA NEAR ABY. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BHM SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DESPITE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF FORECAST STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY CROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ELEVATED OR WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN AND W-CNTRL GA. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 32038688 33028728 34558695 35018659 35368616 35248515 34308473 33298478 32348527 31948557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 16:20:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 11:20:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021622.k02GMNtX006598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021621 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6... VALID 021621Z - 021745Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #6 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF ECNTRL/SE IL COUNTIES INTO WCNTRL INDIANA. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL INDIANA. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL AT AROUND 35 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM CHAMPAIGN-MATTOON TO BETWEEN SALEM/LAWRENCEVILLE AT 1615Z. RELATIVELY MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS JASPER/RICHLAND/EDWARDS COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WW 6 IN WCNTRL INDIANA BY AROUND 18Z. COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EXISTING BREAKS IN CLOUDS/GRADUAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX WILL LEAD TO CONTINUAL/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR LINE-EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 40188807 40628661 39838545 38728534 38268611 38668822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 16:42:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 11:42:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021644.k02Gi2DA019401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021643 FLZ000-GAZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO NERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021643Z - 021815Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1635Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND FROM W OF VDI TO E OF ABY TO SW OF PFN. DESPITE SOME MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...AIR MASS E OF THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WW 0005 HAS WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FROM THE FL PENINSULA INTO SERN GA...SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING AND POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD AID IN FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED ON CURRENT VWPS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 45-55 KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31878301 32208274 32428218 32148159 31478112 30708140 29898130 29498150 29488218 29588254 29818304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 17:11:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 12:11:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021712.k02HCuBF005221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021711 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021711Z - 021845Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM HENRY COUNTY SWD TO MADISON COUNTY IN WRN TN. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60F HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE BECOME LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL OWING TO VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MOREOVER...OKOLONA MS PROFILER INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF ANVIL LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING NEWD AROUND MID MS VALLEY UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MS WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW STILL IN SWRN QUADRANT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SWD INTO FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL. GIVEN THE MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH WEAKENING ANVIL-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35268848 36618796 36618496 34368575 34408881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 17:30:12 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 12:30:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021731.k02HVkIF015943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021730 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-021900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021730Z - 021900Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IND AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z. AS OF 1720Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM E-CNTRL IL INTO WRN TN WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 20-25 KTS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BACKING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACHING OF THIS LOW IS RESULTING IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGELY A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER...AN AXIS MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX... 36658764 39588756 39548481 36598498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 18:28:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 13:28:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021829.k02ITY7e015100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021828 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021828Z - 022000Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS SEEN IN EARLIER 12Z DAVENPORT IA AND LINCOLN IL RAOBS/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF STACKED LOW ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...WITH PARCELS GENERALLY BASED AT 900 MB OR HIGHER. WHILE AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /30-35 KTS/ INITIALLY EXISTS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/HAIL PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN APPROACH OF STACKED LOW. EXPERIMENTAL SPC HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1 INCH HAILSTONES INTO MID AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 40288670 41658684 42358609 42198414 41278378 40408395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 19:07:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 14:07:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021908.k02J8qWv005283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021907 CAZ000-030000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 021907Z - 030000Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTO W/SW FACING SLOPES ABOVE 6500-7000 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST...WITH DRY SLOT ADVECTING NE ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CA. ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS...LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 6500-7000 FT. DPVA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THE COPIOUS HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 38712028 38561968 37221837 36241816 36251881 37191930 37801992 38082027 38362038 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 20:52:56 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 15:52:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022054.k02KsS6Z032739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022053 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-022230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND INTO CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7... VALID 022053Z - 022230Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN PART OF WW 007. AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KY. AS OF 2035Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE FROM N OF LAF IN NWRN IND TO SE OF BWG IN S-CNTRL KY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS E-CNTRL MO/W-CNTRL IL COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS JUST TO THE E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER CNTRL KY. HERE...MORE LOCALIZED FORCING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES RECENTLY REPORTED IN HARDIN AND BULLITT COUNTIES. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR AS THESE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE OVERTAKEN BY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABILE AIR MASS OVER WRN OH SWD INTO ERN KY. HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND E OF WW 007 IN KY AND AN ADDITIONAL...SMALL WW MAY BE NEED SOON. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 36638692 40258731 40048483 36598483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 21:19:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 16:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022121.k02LLPLt015049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022120 GAZ000-ALZ000-022245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL INTO WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022120Z - 022245Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS DEEPENING FROM W OF ATL TO NE OF MGM...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN AL. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE W OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM RMG TO W OF ATL TO S OF MCN. AIR MASS TO THE W OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DRIER WITH WWD EXTENT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S FROM BHM TO MGM. HOWEVER...OVER FAR ERN AL INTO WRN GA...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR EXISTS ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THIS BOUNDARY /AS SAMPLED BY FFC VWP WHERE 0-1 KM SRH IS 100-200 M2/S2/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS MATURE PRIOR TO CROSSING BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONCE STORMS MOVE E OF THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD TEND TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34648545 34748488 33548392 33198402 32538469 32228529 32398583 32718620 33968629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 21:49:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 16:49:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022150.k02LovqN031063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022149 FLZ000-GAZ000-022315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL EWD ACROSS NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7... VALID 022149Z - 022315Z POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS SRN PORTION OF WW 008 AREA...AND PERHAPS E OF WW TOWARD ST. AUGUSTINE. AS OF 2135Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 S OF TLH TO 40 NNE CTY WITH A ENEWD STORM MOTION OF 30-35 KTS. DESPITE SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING...AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...JACKSONVILLE VWP INDICATES 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 WITH 45-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29398466 30108388 30448304 30458175 30238139 29938133 29518212 29158350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 22:54:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 17:54:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022256.k02MuMA6027931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022255 WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/EXTREME SRN OH/WRN WV/SW VA/NE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 9... VALID 022255Z - 030030Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 9 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS REMAINDER OF ERN KY/WRN WV/SW VA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN OH...AS WELL AS NE TN. LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS ECNTRL KY AT THIS TIME...WITH BOWING SEGMENT AROUND 25 MILES W OF JACKSON KY AT 2245Z. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO WRN WV/SW VA IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN AIRMASS QUALITY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 9 MAY BE NEEDED SOON GIVEN EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE AND AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38508417 38798312 39018181 38698088 37708065 37098092 36318235 36088377 36298440 36968436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 23:15:45 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 18:15:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022317.k02NHHam002711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022316 SCZ000-GAZ000-030045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN GA THROUGH SWRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10... VALID 022316Z - 030045Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS E CNTRL GA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THREAT MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO ERN GA AND PARTS OF WRN SC. WW MAY BE NEEDED E OF WW 10 IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD. EARLY THIS EVENING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS E CNTRL GA. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG AND N OF 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NC SWWD THROUGH WRN SC. STRATUS DECK PERSISTS S OF WEDGE FRONT IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS TOWARD WRN SC. THIS COULD POSE A LIMITING FACTOR AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. NEVERTHELESS A MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 10. ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33228322 33918296 33878248 33878207 33858158 32798151 32288293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 01:29:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 20:29:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030130.k031UwT8016810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030129 WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/NE TN/FAR SW WV/FAR WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11... VALID 030129Z - 030300Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH #11 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS THREAT MAY DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME. AN ISOLATED SHORT-TERM SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT REMAINS ACROSS FAR SE KY INTO EXTREME SW WV/WRN VA AND NE TN...ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE/STORM ORGANIZATION -- ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH EXTENT PER AREA WSR-88D VADS -- HOWEVER COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/DIMINISHING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE DETRIMENTAL FACTORS IN AN ALREADY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ..GUYER.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 37998232 38068184 37638160 36928205 35758253 35608282 35618347 35628404 36258411 36608392 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 02:22:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 21:22:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030223.k032Naj1005867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030222 SCZ000-GAZ000-030345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11... VALID 030222Z - 030345Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES... DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM E CNTRL GA INTO SRN SC NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HIGHEST SHORT TERM TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH SUPERCELL ON SRN END OF LINE OVER E CNTRL GA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SRN SC AROUND 03Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM CNTRL SC SWWD INTO E CNTRL GA CONTINUES EWD. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT/CVA ACCOMPANYING A VORT MAX THAT IS MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN GA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN SC IS LESS UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...A THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION AND MAY HELP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO SRN SC NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE WITH ANY STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW IS ORIGINATING FROM HIGHER THETA-E AIR. ..DIAL.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS... 32688182 32968149 32658081 32268096 32308166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 03:20:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 22:20:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030322.k033MGGP029048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030321 NCZ000-SCZ000-030515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030321Z - 030515Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS HAVE INCREASED FROM NERN SC INTO ERN NC WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THERMAL TROUGH ATTENDING THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 35117680 33817930 34928025 35987763 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 05:46:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 00:46:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030548.k035mSQj016343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030547 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-031145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN CT...MUCH OF MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 030547Z - 031145Z MODERATE TO HEAVY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CT AND MUCH OF MA TONIGHT WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH AN HOUR. MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT ORH AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM MD AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT ULJ OVER ME. COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW IN PROGRESS NEAR DOV WITH 4MB PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PAST TWO HOURS OVER EASTERN DE IN THE 05Z SFC ANALYSIS. LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND UL SHORTWAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA BY 07Z. AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT DEEP ISOTHERMAL SUB ZERO LAYER WAS OBSERVED AT 00Z IN OKX AND ALB SOUNDINGS WITH SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN LOWEST 50MB. OBSERVED SHIFT OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW AS VERTICAL MOTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THREAT AREA COMBINED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WITH CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE REMAIN MAINLY SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA. ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY... 41827261 41637340 41737364 42067368 42357346 42477314 42527275 42567233 42567178 42497139 42277117 42017129 41857212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 18:08:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 13:08:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601081809.k08I9ImF011555@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081808 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT/EXTREME ERN ID/WY/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081808Z - 090015Z PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE BIG HORN MTNS. HRLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW MOVING INTO SCNTRL WY PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM ID INTO SCNTRL WY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL WY THIS AFTN. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND RIVERTON WY RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SNOW FROM NW OF RIW TO CPR. THIS SUPPORTS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 750-650MB LAYER FORECAST BY THE ETA. THE ETA AND GFS QPF SEEM TO DEPICT QPF THE BEST THIS AFTN...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE BIG HORNS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY EVENING...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWS WITH ISOLD LTG POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES. IN ADDITION...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER PASSES. ..TAYLOR.. 01/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 42120862 42611201 44971319 45920715 44270539 42960450 42040562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 12:21:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 07:21:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601091222.k09CMQce002781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091221 WAZ000-091615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CASCADES OF WESTERN WA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 091221Z - 091615Z HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE 3000 TO 3500 FEET LEVEL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CASCADES OF WRN WA. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD SLOWLY RISE WITH SNOWFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ACROSS WA INTO SW CANADA. THE MOISTURE PLUME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT SIDE OF A 60 KT SWLY JET AT THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE ACROSS THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD RISE FROM THE 3000 TO 3500 FOOT LEVEL TO THE 4000 TO 4500 FOOT LEVEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 01/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48792066 48032042 46582083 45862128 45732200 46162260 47692228 48662197 48892152 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 00:02:12 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 19:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601100003.k0A03HNf024158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100001 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NE TX...EXTREME SERN OK...NWRN LA...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100001Z - 100230Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NE TX IN 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME AND MOVE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA THEREAFTER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND WILL BECOME LESS POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT PIVOTS EWD OVER OK THROUGH NEXT 4-6 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK FRONTOGENETIC/CYCLOGENETIC FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER AREA WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS...RESULTING IN INCREASE IN BOTH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER FLOW AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...AS WELL AS IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA E OF SFC LOW AND ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW BETWEEN DAL-TYR...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD TXK. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SSW-NNE ORIENTED BOUNDARY LAYER CU STREAMERS GENERALLY E OF CRP-PRX LINE...DENOTING WRN EDGE OF RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MEANWHILE PLUME OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED/SHALLOW CONVECTION THAT IS THICKENING OVER CENTRAL TX...BETWEEN DFW METROPLEX AND JCT. WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS THIS PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NWRN PORTION OF AREA NOW COVERED BY CU FIELD...IN NE TX. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AT LEAST 30 KT...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN AND PARCELS TO LIFT ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC...REALIZING MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. BUOYANCY SHOULD BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC S OF FRONTAL ZONE AND MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N OVER AR. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND OCCASIONAL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES. ..EDWARDS.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... 32269595 33469525 34519501 34489443 34399388 34169353 33389329 32529354 31389432 30989541 31269615 31999605 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 06:30:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 01:30:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601100631.k0A6VH8e020737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100630 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-101130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN OK...SCENTRAL/SERN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 100630Z - 101130Z BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS INTO NERN OK/SERN KS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. FURTHER EAST...MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER SWRN AND CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 08-11Z. A NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO WHERE THE STRONGEST ELEVATED WAA WILL EXIST. LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WAS INTENSIFYING OVER SCENTRAL KS/NCENTRAL OK AS BACKING 500 MB FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED AT LAMONT AND WICHITA...WHILE VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW WAS OCCURRING AT VICI AND DODGE CITY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEVERAL SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL AT TIMES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO PRIMARY BANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR AGGREGATION IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT ALONG WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS REGION...MODERATE TO STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E-W ORIENTED MODERATE PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THIS AREA...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNU TO SGF BY 09Z. THUS A CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM SGF TO VIH. IN THIS REGION...THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN FROM 09-12Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38699216 38609421 38129595 37599749 36929830 36439861 36099823 36229728 36439629 36689539 37019348 37309182 38419114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 12:32:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 07:32:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601101234.k0ACXwAQ032432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101232 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...WRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101232Z - 101630Z PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK...SE KS AND WRN MO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER AR WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS SW MO INTO SE KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX NEAR 700 MB. ACROSS SW MO...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S F AND SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. JUST ABOVE THE SFC...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER OK DRIFTS ENEWD. THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS SHOULD BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 850 MB LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR TULSA AND SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO SCNTRL MO BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY LIGHTEN ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WRAP PRECIPITATION SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS WRN MO. ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 38109567 38799420 39259259 38889165 38129146 37319237 36549427 36119588 36429662 37419669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 13:04:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 08:04:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601101305.k0AD5qER019481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101304 MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-101700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WA...NRN ID...NW MT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101304Z - 101700Z HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS OF WA...NRN ID AND NW MT TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS MAINLY ABOVE THE 3500 TO 4000 FOOT LEVEL. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POCKET OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN WA...NRN ID AND NW MT WITH A SECONDARY PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN ORE AND SRN WA. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED NNW TO SSE...LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WA AND ORE. AS THE LEFT EXIT REGIN OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND ABOUT 3000 FEET IN THE BITTEROOTS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OR RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SNOWFALL HEAVIEST ABOVE 400O FEET. ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 46881575 47371625 47931760 47941893 47651990 46952061 46222118 46552216 47962179 48962019 48881654 48171488 47331428 46791478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 18:42:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 13:42:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601101843.k0AIhB5g024301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101842 TNZ000-KYZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101842Z - 101945Z A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS OVER SWRN TN /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN HAYWOOD TO FAYETTE COUNTIES/. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING NEWD AT 35-40 KT ALONG A WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR MEM NEWD TO NERN TN. DESPITE WEAK AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...A SWLY 50 KT LLJ PER MEMPHIS VAD SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST TO REACH THE SURFACE PER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. ANY ADDITIONAL LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR THREAT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..PETERS.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35748941 36068939 36428884 36568739 36558675 35298668 35068774 35018929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 21:02:00 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 16:02:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601102103.k0AL30rk026355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102101 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102101Z - 102230Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AND OR EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA...IS EXPECTED ACROSS A PART OF NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY THROUGH 23-00Z. LIMITED THREAT AREA AND OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOW ECHO...APEX NOW MOVING INTO SWRN KY /TRIGG COUNTY/...MAINTAINING A SPEED OF 40 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. THIS BOW CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY PER SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS WAS RETREATING NWD AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 11/00Z AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...NOW OVER SERN MO DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW ECHO...COLD POOL COMBINED WITH 50 KT SWLY LLJ...NOW OBSERVED AT PAH VAD...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF ONGOING BOW. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES. ..PETERS.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36358790 36818775 37038780 37208805 37588768 37868729 38178587 36978595 36578652 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 00:34:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 19:34:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601110035.k0B0Z98J017109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110033 IDZ000-110530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 110033Z - 110530Z HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID THIS EVENING...WITH 2 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5500-6000 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF ID. 00Z BOISE RAOB AND LOCAL WSR-88D VWP ALREADY FEATURES MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 50 KTS OR GREATER ABOVE 4 KM...WITH 0.66 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ REPRESENTATIVE OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALSO IN ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z BOISE RAOB...MESONET OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY DEPICT SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500-6000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD FLUCTUATE LITTLE TONIGHT AMIDST THE PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST FACING SLOPES. ..GUYER.. 01/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI... 44981670 44831536 44071431 43401404 43231483 43451548 44051590 44501634 44681672 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 05:49:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 00:49:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601110550.k0B5oJ4Z006383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110548 MIZ000-110945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 110548Z - 110945Z LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 08-12Z. HRLY AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.02-0.04 IN. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER WCENTRAL IL AT 06Z...MOVES ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL IND BY 12Z...THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO NRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY. ELY WINDS ALONG WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS IN THE LOW LEVEL SHOULD SUPPORT LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES. ..CROSBIE.. 01/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44888408 44708581 44308629 43608646 43458635 43458477 43758395 44368334 44718333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 18:35:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 13:35:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601111836.k0BIaRwB028040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111835 MEZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 111835Z - 112330Z FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ME BETWEEN 21-00Z. LATEST MESO-ANALYSES INDICATED A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED INLAND OVER SRN ME...GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 20S...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 32F THROUGH 00Z. ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A RATHER DRY AIR MASS ACROSS ME...CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID IN MOISTENING. THIS LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND MOST PRONOUNCED FROM 850-950 MB TO SUPPORT A PTYPE FOR FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM OVER SERN ONTARIO TO FAR SRN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO NRN ME LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RATES UP TO 0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z. ..PETERS.. 01/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45666763 45366887 45617064 46627018 47536922 47316777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 21:53:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 16:53:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601122155.k0CLtIPX024188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122154 LAZ000-TXZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122154Z - 122330Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED NEAR HOU AS OF 2135Z. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES OF 70-75 F. HOWEVER...A MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY ARE LIKELY ERODING CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DESPITE SOME WEAKNESSES IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE 2-6 KM LAYER...CURRENT LEDBETTER TX PROFILER INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM OWING TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN TX WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ..MEAD.. 01/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29409542 29599609 30429651 31219617 31789518 31959444 31589381 30829364 29889400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 23:25:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601122327.k0CNRHOR025430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122326 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122326Z - 130130Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET OVER ERN OK/WRN AR...AND SWD INTO PARTS OF NERN TX/NWRN LA. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 13/01Z. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTENING/ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER OF S CENTRAL KS -- MOVING EWD INTO ERN OK...TOWARD LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. INCREASING UVV AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/MOISTENING WITHIN THE CAPPING LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/...WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/WRN AR SOMEWHERE AROUND 13/02Z. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STORMS COULD BE ELEVATED ABOVE A SLIGHTLY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THOUGH THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE...AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY AS STORMS BECOME MORE INTENSE/WELL ESTABLISHED AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO DRAW INFLOW AIR FROM VERY NEAR THE SURFACE. ..GOSS.. 01/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36589483 36399412 35699294 34259263 32449379 32319610 33549653 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 00:34:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:34:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130036.k0D0aN0G003952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130035 MOZ000-130230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130035Z - 130230Z IT APPEARS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. RECENT IR IMAGERY FEATURES COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ARRIVAL OF DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO MO /REF 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB/...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PER RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PRESENCE OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37029442 37599364 38099171 37479102 36919114 36659164 36539294 36659414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 03:51:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 22:51:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130352.k0D3qw7l023861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130352 ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SRN MO/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 130352Z - 130515Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW. SQUALL LINE -- WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS AND LOCALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- IS ONGOING ATTM FROM SWRN MO SSWWD INTO NERN TX. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH/ALONG SURFACE FRONT...WHERE WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. THOUGH STORMS APPEAR TO BE SURFACE-BASED OR NEARLY SO...OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER HAS REMAINED IN THE FORM OF HAIL THUS FAR. NONETHELESS...WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 451 M2/S2 0-1 KM SREH PER LATEST DEQUEEN AR PROFILER...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES. ..GOSS.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 36939312 36399144 32069343 32099635 32389644 34349458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 05:10:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 00:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130511.k0D5Bscl005050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130511 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130510 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-130645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...AR/NERN TX/NRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 130510Z - 130645Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E/SE OF CURRENT WW. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MORE STABLE NEAR/E OF THE MS RIVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AR AND ADJACENT NRN LA TO ALLOW LINE OF STORMS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT SHIFTS E OF WW BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z. THEREFORE...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS SQUALL LINE MOVES EWD...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER ERN AR AND PARTS OF NRN LA. ..GOSS.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...FWD... 36549274 36389147 33079118 31659236 31899583 33579413 35689293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 07:07:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 02:07:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130709.k0D793D4026097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130708 ARZ000-LAZ000-130745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR AND NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 130708Z - 130745Z THE LINE OF TSTMS HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF WT 13 AND INTO WT 14. TAIL END OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN LAGGING ACROSS NWRN LA AND ECNTRL TX. A LINE MOVEMENT OF 260/35 SUGGESTS THAT ERN DESOTO AND RED RIVER PARISHES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TSTM THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 08-0830Z. THESE TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CNTRL LA AND ERN AR BY 08Z. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 32259402 36419204 36429151 31979350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 07:47:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 02:47:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130749.k0D7nM0L010645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130747 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-130915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...MS AND ERN/CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130747Z - 130915Z WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM FROM WT 14. UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE INTENSITY HAS BEEN STEADY STATE OR ON A SLOW DECLINE SINCE 06Z AS IT OUT PACES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS HINT...HOWEVER...THAT A STRONGER IMPULSE IS BEGINNING TO TURN EWD ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK. AS THIS STRONGER ASCENT MIGRATES TOWARD THE MS RVR...TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO INCREASE WITHIN THE LINE...AND PERHAPS AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 60-65 DEGREES F WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE MS DELTA AND CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT CROSS-FRONT COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ATOP SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT CNTRL MS SWD TO THE GULF COAST...THE HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST THERE. FARTHER N...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER...MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN NRN MS AND WRN TN WILL BE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31458917 30168955 30199047 30599157 31489129 32889053 34399036 36438939 36458770 35838763 34468798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 09:59:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 04:59:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131001.k0DA1geO002966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131000 MSZ000-LAZ000-131100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA AND EXTREME WCNTRL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14... VALID 131000Z - 131100Z FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MS RVR NORTH OF ABOUT VICKSBURG AND WILL CROSS INTO SWRN MS FROM NERN LA SOUTH OF THAT LATITUDE BY 11Z. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT IN WT 14 WILL END. UNTIL THEN...TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN LA AND WRN MS AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK BEGINS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTM LINE SEGMENT APPROACHING AREAS N AND W OF NATCHEZ MS IS BOWING AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS CELL INTO WT 16 BY 11Z. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31529259 33099093 32729051 32039080 31299155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 11:19:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 06:19:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131121.k0DBLIlt027949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131120 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-131245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...ERN LA...SWRN AL AND EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131120Z - 131245Z IR SATL SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS CNTRL MS SWWD TO THE GULF COAST EAST OF KLCH AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE SWINGS TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE SOMEWHAT POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY FIELDS. STRONGER STORMS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS ERN LA WHERE 60-63 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXIST. BUT...THUS FAR THIS MORNING...TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN ROOTED ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A JACKSON MS LATITUDE. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LWR MS VLY...THE ERN LA/SRN MS STORMS MAY BEGIN TO ROOT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. DOWNSTREAM...THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY/ DESTABILIZATION INTO SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY TEND TO FAVOR THIS ZONE. AS SUCH...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM...AT LEAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL. STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MS...LA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL. COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29629282 31239209 33618965 33668800 32848746 31328661 30128621 29048692 29508997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 16:14:34 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 11:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131616.k0DGGN5R024162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131615 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-131745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL AND SRN/CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131615Z - 131745Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 18Z. AS OF 16Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM MIDDLE TN SSWWD INTO CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF LINE /COMPOSED OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ EXTENDED FROM NEAR GZH TO SE OF MOB. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK MESOLOW ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT S OF SEM WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO S OF TOI TO NEAR AAF. AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND S OF THIS WARM FRONT IS MOIST AND WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN A NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZING INTO CNTRL GA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ ACROSS THE FL PNHDL...SRN AL AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA...ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 29948566 32638427 32378138 29708245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 18:02:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 13:02:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131804.k0DI47nY030294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131803 INZ000-ILZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / EXTREME NWRN IN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 131803Z - 132300Z PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 19Z INTO FAR NERN IL...WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SOME ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR DURING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES. DEEPENING LOW WILL COOL COLUMN AND ALLOW FOR RAIN OVER FAR NERN IL TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY ABOUT 19Z. HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PERSIST OVER NERN IL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HRLY RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 16-17Z INDICATE UP TO 0.12 IN POSSIBLE PER HR...WITH 0.05-0.08 IN GENERAL. THIS SHOULD CORRESPOND TO HEAVY WET SNOW RATES OF 0.50 - 1.00 IN/HR. ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX... 41958724 40898755 40238813 39888842 39878902 40038940 40678930 41618876 42098835 42318799 42378737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 18:54:36 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 13:54:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131856.k0DIuPSd013164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131855 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PNHDL INTO SRN AND CNTRL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18... VALID 131855Z - 132030Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ENHANCED RISK FROM THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG ROTATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER BARBOUR AND HENRY COUNTIES IN FAR SERN AL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS / 5-6 MB/3 HRS / EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER NEWD INTO UPSTATE SC. AS A RESULT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FT. RUCKER AL VWP SHOWING STRONG NEAR-GROUND SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-450 M2/S2. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS SWRN GA...HORIZONTAL ADVECTION IS OFFSETTING THIS PROCESS TO SOME DEGREE AND MODIFICATION OF 18Z TLH SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THROUGH 20-21Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST FROM N OF ABY TO W OF TLH. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32698576 33208479 33238202 29668293 29968723 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 21:07:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 16:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601132109.k0DL9CYE005755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132108 SCZ000-GAZ000-132245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132108Z - 132245Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES HAS MAINTAINED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN GA INTO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL AS OF 2055Z. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS SUPPORTING MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS HAVE CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENED WITH LOCAL VWPS INDICATING STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS AS TO HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRENGTHENING WAA BECOMING BETTER COUPLED WITH INCREASED MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...THIS FORCING AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SUSTAINED. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 31338132 31918207 33078199 33888208 34778231 34958183 34688065 34338003 33257975 32687971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 21:35:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 16:35:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601132137.k0DLblKC029669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132136 FLZ000-GAZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO NERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132136Z - 132300Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR GNV TO SE OF AYS. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29678110 29278212 29848258 31318233 31518210 31348144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 22:48:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 17:48:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601132250.k0DMo7GQ015434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132248 FLZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132248Z - 140045Z A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NRN SECTIONS OF MD AREA NEAR SRN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 19. GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MODIFIED 18Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG MID TO UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...STORMS HAVE FORMED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN FL...PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAK LEAD VORT LOBE. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MDT INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER HERE COMPARED TO FARTHER N WITHIN WW 19...THUS TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER AS WELL. 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE AVERAGING 50-75 M2/S2 MLB AND AMX VWPS...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28068183 28928167 29228095 27978019 26967981 26038012 26038070 27228131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 00:48:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 19:48:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140050.k0E0oBf5013596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140049 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-140215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18...19... VALID 140049Z - 140215Z CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WW 18 AND 19. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN GA INTO SRN SC ATTM...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM FAR SERN GA SWD INTO NRN FL. STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE E OF WW 18 -- WHICH EXPIRES AT 14/02Z -- AND DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WW 19...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. EVENING JAX /JACKSONVILLE FL/ RAOB -- FEATURING 36 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND JUST OVER 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND THUS EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST EXTRAP0LATION SUGGESTS THAT FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OFF THE SERN GA COAST BY 04-05Z...AND THEREFORE -- THOUGH FRONT MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER NRN FL -- MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER WW 19 BY ITS SCHEDULED 14/06Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33028206 33048109 33508002 32977917 31328117 29418085 28938168 29158251 29818296 31118265 31798292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 02:05:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 21:05:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140207.k0E278X5018952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140200 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-140400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC/ERN NC/SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20... VALID 140200Z - 140400Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 20...AND SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS SERN VA. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 20. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS...AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL STORM CLUSTER MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN SC. THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION. A RELATIVELY UNIFORM AIRMASS EXISTS EWD TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND EXTENDS AS FAR NWD AS SERN VA ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBS AND EVENING RAOBS. GIVEN THIS -- AND PERSISTENT EWD-PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD E AND NE OF WW 20. THOUGH MAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN WW 20 FOR SEVERAL HOURS...STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD OVER SERN PORTION OF WW MAY APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY OF WW 20 AROUND 04Z. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 36188070 37067745 36877598 35297597 33797807 33067914 33058136 34608085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 02:09:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 21:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140211.k0E2BZmK021383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140210 FLZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 140210Z - 140415Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AS STORMS MOVE INLAND AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED IF STORMS INTENSIFY. LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 00Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER WITH TIME. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL OVER N CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF THIS LINE...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN A FOCUS. LEAD LEFT MOVER HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS IT HAS TREKKED ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...EITHER FROM OUTFLOW OR IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MESOCYCLONES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY. ..JEWELL.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29128297 29288275 29328220 29328156 28228213 28008236 27908356 28748320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 04:01:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 23:01:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140404.k0E446Vg007692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140401 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-140500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC/SERN GA/NERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 19... VALID 140401Z - 140500Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ALONG BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MOVING OFF THE GA COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NERN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN SC. THOUGH THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS WITH STORMS ALONG THIS LINE...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD/OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CLEARED ALL OF WW AREA BY 05Z -- THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 19...THOUGH A LIMITED THREAT MAY LINGER JUST BEYOND WW EXPIRATION OVER COASTAL NERN FL. HOWEVER...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSHORE...REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS NERN FL. FURTHER S...MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF FL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...MLB...JAX... 29638082 28948171 29008200 29788195 33478006 33107924 32098023 30818095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 07:18:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 02:18:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140720.k0E7KYOY023232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140719 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-140845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...DE...SRN NJ...NRN NECK OF VA AND ERN/SRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140719Z - 140845Z WELL-DEVELOP SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED OVER THE NRN NECK OF VA...ALONG NRN PORTION OF A LINE OF TSTMS THAT EXTENDS SWD INTO ERN NC. THIS BOW ECHO WAS MOVING 210/45 AND IS EXTRAPOLATED INTO NERN MD AROUND 10Z. VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS A H5 JET OF 95+ KTS ROTATES NWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OH VLY UPPER TROUGH AXIS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL PA HAS MAINTAINED A SELY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WAS BEING OBSERVED ON THE DOVER DE VWP. THUS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN VA NEWD THROUGH ERN MD INTO DE...EXTREME SERN PA AND NJ WHERE 56-61 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INFLUENCE OF A COOLER NEAR-SURFACE MARINE LAYER VCNTY CHESAPEAKE BAY/ATLANTIC...ANY STRONGER TSTM MAY BE CAPABLE AT BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..RACY.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 37907696 39097653 40057583 40217531 39917454 39437471 38747521 38017553 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 08:30:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 03:30:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140832.k0E8WBBJ017399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140831 NCZ000-VAZ000-141000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21... VALID 140831Z - 141000Z LINE OF TSTMS...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND BOWS...CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS ERN NC AND SERN VA AT 40-45 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LINE CLEARING THE MAINLAND BETWEEN 09-10Z AND THE COASTAL WATERS BY 1030Z. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS BACKED IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER PRESSURE FALL AXIS OVER PA. FARTHER S...TIME-SERIES TO THE VWP AND SURFACE WINDS SHOW A VEERING WIND PATTERN WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE TSTMS. BUT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE CROSS-COMPONENT FLOW TO THE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS ALONG WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. ..RACY.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 34407668 36617629 37217645 37437650 37397530 35217516 34447588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 11:29:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 06:29:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601141131.k0EBV59s020995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141130 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141130Z - 141300Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS MORNING WITH THE 989 MB LOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH NERN PA. MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS CONTINUES TO PUNCH NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH STRONG UVV SUPPORTING A LINE OF TSTMS FROM SRN NY SWD INTO NJ. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TSTM LINE TO EVOLVE INTO BOWS/LEWPS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN LONG-LIVED DURING THE NIGHT. THE STRONG SLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED SEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND THE RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER SERN NY...NWRN NJ AND NWRN CT HAS BEEN ERODING RAPIDLY. STILL...THERE WAS LIKELY A SKIN LAYER OF STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION...OWING TO RELATIVELY COOL MARINE TRAJECTORIES. AS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS. RATHER... STRONGER CELLS THAT EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED BOWS TEND TO PRODUCE STREAKS OF HIGHER WIND/ISOLD TORNADO PROBABILITIES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NYC AREA...SERN NY AND WRN CT THROUGH 14Z. ..RACY.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 39457450 41477504 42107472 42017306 41697259 40987244 40377257 40067341 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 06:15:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 01:15:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601150616.k0F6Gkwx031561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150615 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-151215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/VT/NH/WRN MA/CT/ERN PA/NJ/DE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS VALID 150615Z - 151215Z MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. MIXED PCPN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/FZRA MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING SOUTH OF CAPE COD...CURRENTLY DOWN TO 982MB. MEANWHILE STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE UPPER TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM NORFOLK VA TO BURLINGTON VT. DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WV LOOPS IS MOVING INTO SERN NY/NRN NJ WHICH HAS DISRUPTED ORIGINAL LONG BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF DEPARTING UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE STRONG THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SUPPORTING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITHIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP FROM THE ERN ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO ERN PA/DE. OTHER HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES...RANGING FROM RAIN NEAR THE COASTS TO A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME. FZRA IS NOW OCCURRING FROM CON/BAF/ISP BECAUSE OF WARM AIR LOCATED AROUND 850MB WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ERODED AWAY BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST PCPN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY MORNING. ..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ... 38497574 41347544 44907388 45037207 45017110 40957251 40227310 38457496 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 23:23:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 18:23:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601162325.k0GNPRtT011939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162324 LAZ000-TXZ000-170130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX....WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162324Z - 170130Z THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH ABOUT 100KT OF FLOW AT 6KM NOTED ON LDB PROFILER AND EWX VWP. THIS VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ATOP A SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SURGING ESEWD FROM NEAR CLL TO LRD. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF FORCING WAS WARM AND MOIST BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAVACA... FAYETTE...AND COLORADO COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FRONT IN DEWITT AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. GIVEN INTENSE MID LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE TO EXHIBIT INCREASING ORGANIZATION... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME LINE SEGMENTS COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GULF THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 01/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27359694 26459780 27619847 30289648 31809578 32549410 30049324 28009610 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 08:51:34 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 03:51:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601170853.k0H8r9so001112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170851 MIZ000-171445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL LWR MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 170851Z - 171445Z PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LWR MI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS OF NCNTRL LWR MI WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR PSBL. SLEET PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS FAR NWRN LWR MI. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS MN. LARGE WARM CONVEYOR WAS TRANSPORTING LOW/MID-LEVEL MSTR NWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS LK MI AND SRN LWR MI SINCE 06Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING/MOVE NWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. BUT...THE COLUMN SHOULD MOISTEN RAPIDLY AS STRONGER UVV SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS AT LEAST THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF LWR MI THROUGH THE MORNING. 06Z NAM AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE 0 DEGREE C OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NRN MI BY 15Z. AT THE SAME TIME...AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...WET-BULBING WILL MAINTAIN BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI. ONLY FAR NWRN LWR MI WILL SEE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT A SLEET MIX...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONGER UVV. MAINLY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER NW ACROSS UPPER MI. ..RACY.. 01/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43598381 43298415 43358471 43738554 44328594 44698575 45148497 45298443 44708409 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 01:21:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 20:21:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601180123.k0I1NXQR013144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180122 NYZ000-PAZ000-180515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 180122Z - 180515Z PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NY THROUGH 06Z. MAINLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BROAD WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LEADING TO EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT/EPISODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY THIS EVENING. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE MELTING LAYER ABOVE MAINTENENCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LATER THIS EVENING...MAGNITUDE OF ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TEND TO INDUCE A SWITCH-OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHERN NY. ..GUYER.. 01/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44287588 44737465 44077362 42947348 42017406 41707431 41537481 41367563 41377630 41337756 41507795 41867812 42537792 42717774 42967729 43407630 43787601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 08:13:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 03:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601180814.k0I8Eu02005855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180813 ORZ000-CAZ000-181415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADE RANGE INTO SRN ORE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 180813Z - 181415Z SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE SRN ORE CASCADE RANGE. SNOWFALL RATES PER HOUR COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE AT TIMES TO 2500 FEET IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS. LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ONSHORE WRN ORE AND NWRN CA...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET. CONSIDERABLE OPEN CELL TYPE CLOUDS ATTEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TO THE N OF THE CYCLONIC JET. IN FACT...NLDN/OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES/OFFSHORE. WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH MID-MORNING... WITH STRONG...MOIST AND UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND SRN ORE CASCADES. CIRA SATL BLENDED TPW STILL SUGGESTS AROUND 0.60-0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT. SNOWFALL LEVELS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TO 2500-3000 FEET...BUT COULD DIP TO AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE HEAVY SNOW BURSTS. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXIST ABOVE 4000 FEET AND BE CENTERED MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY CA NWD INTO THE SRN ORE CASCADES. ..RACY.. 01/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR...EKA... 41402372 41972363 42292285 42512267 43032236 43442224 43392201 42902207 42202220 41392220 40922306 40972352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 09:37:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 04:37:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601180938.k0I9ciqR030144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180937 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-181530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE WASATCH RANGE IN UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 180937Z - 181530Z LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...THE WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE WASATCH RANGE IN UT NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IR-SATL SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS A SWATH FROM NRN NV INTO SRN ID....ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS TRANSLATING QUICKLY EWD ALONG THE BASE OF THE CA/ORE TROUGH...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ASCENT. RESULTANT ENHANCED H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS LIKELY THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR THE INCREASING PCPN RATES. PCPN RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS STRONGER MOIST WLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SINK SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. RAWS SITES SUGGEST THAT THE 09Z SNOW LEVELS...RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN ERN ID/TETONS TO 7000 FEET IN THE UT WASATCH RANGE...WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. BY MID-DAY...SNOW LEVELS IN THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL RANGE FROM 3500 FEET IN THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID AND THE TETONS TO 5000 FEET IN THE WASATCH RANGE NORTH OF I-80. ..RACY.. 01/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 42021074 41521072 41101125 40751178 40881184 40951186 41371191 41531178 41851179 42171180 42381189 42361225 42421252 42811244 43071196 43491161 44001082 42911065 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 19:03:45 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 14:03:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601191905.k0JJ58A6021372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191903 MIZ000-WIZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191903Z - 192300Z OCCASIONALLY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WILL TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN MI UPPER PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY ORIENTED WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER IMPULSE. SIMILAR TO ONGOING TRENDS...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THIS SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH 21Z-00Z. RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DEPICT AMPLE OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR LOCALIZED SNOW RATES FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH... 46619183 46659045 46948937 47158826 46288748 45968911 45839056 45829145 46189195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 23:51:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 18:51:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601192352.k0JNqUp5003729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192350 COZ000-200415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 192350Z - 200415Z MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURATION THROUGH 06Z. SNOW IS ONGOING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE PUEBLO VICINITY AND MUCH OF PUEBLO/CUSTER/HUERFANO COUNTIES. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS IMPULSE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE/EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL -- REFERENCE WSR-88D VWP FROM DENVER/PUEBLO -- AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOW RATES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINOUS EAST SLOPES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR SUGGEST SEVERAL HOURS OF VERTICAL PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH WELL-SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF PUEBLO...A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED UPON EFFECTIVE SATURATION. ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 39350486 39340377 38860368 38430412 37950437 37230475 37540548 37980568 38370581 38750579 39210539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 05:39:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 00:39:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601200540.k0K5euWM021560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200540 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200539 KSZ000-COZ000-201145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 200539Z - 201145Z MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AND/OR DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 12 UTC. AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY 12 UTC, FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 12 UTC. STRONG MOIST ASCENT IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ..BOTHWELL.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37040431 37760467 38530459 39140375 39380224 39390005 37210129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 16:32:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 11:32:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601201634.k0KGY7o7009843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201632 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO...SERN NEB...SRN/CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN/WCENTRAL IL CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 201632Z - 202130Z A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SCENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD AND EXTEND FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY NERN IA BY 21Z. HRLY RATES WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND MAY EXCEED 1 INCH/HR FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER NERN KS AND NRN MO...WITH MODERATE SNOW LIKELY OVER SCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z. CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH HRLY LIQUID EQUIV. RATES UP TO 0.10 IN. LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS INTO FAR SCENTRAL NEB. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SCENTRAL KS HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASING TREND IN LOW LEVEL WAA/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM NRN KS INTO WRN IA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOCATED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER /PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY NARROW HVY SNOW BAND FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH 21Z. DRY AIR INITIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE BAND. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING COEXISTENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...AND WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW NATURE OF THE BAND MOVEMENT...UP TO A 2 HR DURATION OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONTOGENETIC HEAVY SNOWFALL BAND MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO NERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA. FURTHER SOUTH...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER NERN KS INTO NRN MO AND SRN IA. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW LEVEL PRESSURE RISES OVER SRN IA/NCENTRAL MO. CONSEQUENTLY THE SFC FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SWD OVER NRN MO/NERN KS. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT /CENTERED AROUND 850 MB/ MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER NERN KS/NRN MO WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NRN MO...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED RECENTLY...HRLY PRECIP RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 43019300 41849586 40279775 39939774 39179700 38699580 38999339 40229085 40929045 42469129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:38:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:38:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202140.k0KLe6sb027785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202139 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN IA...SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL...FAR NWRN IND...SWRN/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 202139Z - 210345Z HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL IA INTO SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY WCENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI BY 03Z. SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL THROUGH 00Z...WHILE MOVING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM 01Z-03Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES WILL EXCEED 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH/HR RATES POSSIBLE OVER THE CHI METRO AREA NEWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIX OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NWRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT THAT CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA. NORTH OF THIS DRY SLOT...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WAS AIDING IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN IA. THIS FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING ENEWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND MOVE INTO SRN/ERN WI THROUGH 00Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...STRONG WAA EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP DATA...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING STRIKES/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE-HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP....ONCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN WI AND NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB THAT PRECIP SHOULD START AS SLEET AND MAY AGAIN CHANGE OVER TO SLEET BRIEFLY DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM 00-03Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1-2 INCHES/HR FOR BRIEF PERIODS ACROSS NRN IL/SERN WI FROM 23-02Z. STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION AND CONSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MI FROM 01-03Z. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL AND SWRN LOWER MI/NWRN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SRN IL. THIS SHOULD AID IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST ESTIMATE ON THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/I-90 IN NRN IL AND NORTH OF I-94 IN SWRN LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44488645 44208861 43549063 42779244 42149318 41469265 41139154 41139032 41168963 41288840 41398715 41738631 42028580 42728414 43658395 44498405 44668514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:40:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:40:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202142.k0KLgKHq029753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202141 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN ARK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202141Z - 202345Z AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/ HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING... WHEN 500 MB SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO REACH 90+ KT. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALREADY MIGRATING INTO/ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONGOING IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST NORTHEAST. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR OF LOW...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING LAGGING TO THE WEST...INHIBITION IS STILL TOO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS COULD CHANGE BY 21/00-01Z...WITH POSSIBLE NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS/WEST PLAINS MO AND RUSSELLVILLE AR AREAS. CAPE IS NOT LIKELY NOT TO EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...AND POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37819256 38489204 39369098 38909013 37489084 36249207 35429294 35599384 36839350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:41:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:41:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202142.k0KLgtDR030176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202139 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN IA...SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL...FAR NWRN IND...SWRN/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 202139Z - 210345Z HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL IA INTO SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY WCENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI BY 03Z. SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL THROUGH 00Z...WHILE MOVING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM 01Z-03Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES WILL EXCEED 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH/HR RATES POSSIBLE OVER THE CHI METRO AREA NEWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIX OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NWRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT THAT CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA. NORTH OF THIS DRY SLOT...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WAS AIDING IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN IA. THIS FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING ENEWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND MOVE INTO SRN/ERN WI THROUGH 00Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...STRONG WAA EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP DATA...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING STRIKES/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE-HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP....ONCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN WI AND NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB THAT PRECIP SHOULD START AS SLEET AND MAY AGAIN CHANGE OVER TO SLEET BRIEFLY DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM 00-03Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1-2 INCHES/HR FOR BRIEF PERIODS ACROSS NRN IL/SERN WI FROM 23-02Z. STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION AND CONSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MI FROM 01-03Z. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL AND SWRN LOWER MI/NWRN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SRN IL. THIS SHOULD AID IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST ESTIMATE ON THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/I-90 IN NRN IL AND NORTH OF I-94 IN SWRN LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44488645 44208861 43549063 42779244 42149318 41469265 41139154 41139032 41168963 41288840 41398715 41738631 42028580 42728414 43658395 44498405 44668514  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:42:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:42:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202143.k0KLhT0a030603@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202141 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN ARK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202141Z - 202345Z AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/ HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING... WHEN 500 MB SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO REACH 90+ KT. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALREADY MIGRATING INTO/ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONGOING IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST NORTHEAST. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR OF LOW...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING LAGGING TO THE WEST...INHIBITION IS STILL TOO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS COULD CHANGE BY 21/00-01Z...WITH POSSIBLE NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS/WEST PLAINS MO AND RUSSELLVILLE AR AREAS. CAPE IS NOT LIKELY NOT TO EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...AND POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37819256 38489204 39369098 38909013 37489084 36249207 35429294 35599384 36839350  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:45:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:45:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202146.k0KLkmtD000687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202145 COR ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN ARK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202145Z - 202345Z CORRECTED TO CLARIFY 1ST SENTENCE/LAST PARAGRAPH AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/ HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING... WHEN 500 MB SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO REACH 90+ KT. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALREADY MIGRATING INTO/ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONGOING IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST NORTHEAST. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR OF LOW...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING LAGGING TO THE WEST...INHIBITION IS STILL TOO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS COULD CHANGE BY 21/00-01Z...WITH POSSIBLE NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS/WEST PLAINS MO AND RUSSELLVILLE AR AREAS. CAPE IS NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...AND POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37819256 38489204 39369098 38909013 37489084 36249207 35429294 35599384 36839350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 05:53:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 00:53:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601210554.k0L5sjL8025174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210552 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 210552Z - 211145Z BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM FNT TO AZO MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM W TO E WITH TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NERN IND AS OF 05Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS ERN LOWER MI INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED SWWD INTO E-CNTRL IL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM W-CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITHIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP...SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITE GROWTH VIA AGGREGATION. MOREOVER...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER ALONG SRN EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES. THROUGH 21/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM MKG AND BEH NEWD THROUGH LAN TO NEAR OR S OF BAX. HOURLY RATES WILL LIKELY PEAK AT 1-1.5 INCHES THOUGH SOME LOCAL RATES MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ..MEAD.. 01/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 42048483 41488742 42578806 44018673 44918372 44888216 43778180 42258380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 18:36:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 13:36:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601221838.k0MIctL8018661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221834 VAZ000-WVZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN VA AND ERN WV CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 221834Z - 230030Z FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES OVER 0.05 IN. COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND SERN WV...MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IMMEDIATE VALLEYS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 21Z. INCREASING EXPECTATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 21-00Z AS WET BULB EFFECTS PERSIST AND DIURNAL COOLING EFFECTS OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY SPREAD NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN VA AND THE WV PANHANDLE BY 00Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES WELL OVER 0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 00Z...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY PRECIPITATION OVER NERN TN AND ERN KY....AIDED BY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA /PER MORRISTOWN VWP DATA/. A SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES /CENTERED AROUND 500 MB/ WAS SUPPORTING THIS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...SFC DATA SHOWS COLD/DRY AIR WAS DAMMED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MTNS OF SERN WV/SWRN VA. RECENT SFC TRENDS SHOW THAT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO WRN VA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS..SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WET-BULB COOLING AFFECTS WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR SATURATION TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY /1-2 HRS/ WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE SUB-FREEZING MARK OVER MUCH OF THE SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF SWRN VA AND SERN WV BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER STARTING JUST UNDER 1 KM...SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ABOVE 3000 FT/ SHOULD SEE ONLY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENT. ..CROSBIE.. 01/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 37618090 38997943 39287911 39387856 39047808 38457810 37667898 37037966 36967999 36928010 37008060 37338090  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 19:38:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 14:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601221940.k0MJe6tY023833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221937 LAZ000-MSZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA INTO SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221937Z - 222130Z SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHEAST OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR WEAK SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION STILL APPEARS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MODELS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIFTING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL WEAKEN CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING/ STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21Z... ALONG LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS...SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF BATON ROUGE LA THROUGH AREAS EAST NORTHEAST OF MCCOMB MS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AS SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES REALIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE. ..KERR.. 01/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... 30339093 31219070 31858993 31318935 30488962 29789003 29579068 30019107  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 06:49:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 01:49:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060123065013.689EB8B36A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230647 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN PA / NRN NJ / FAR SERN NY / SWRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 230647Z - 231145Z FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA...WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN CT. SNOW OVER SERN PA WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN LAST FEW HOURS. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS BASED ON THE NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN MOST PROBABLE TYPE IN ZONE BOUNDED BY JST TO AOO TO FIG TO UNV. HRLY FREEZING RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.05" ARE ANTICIPATED SO SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ICING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE. FARTHER NE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER ERN PA AND NJ WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD WITH VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND RUC INDICATE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN PA AND NJ WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW ZONE ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AND WRN CT THROUGH 12Z. ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 41357350 41247434 41267473 41347544 41277662 41217723 40767777 40077816 39967877 40137897 40687893 41107907 41447864 41837694 42057493 42187376 42037288 41637267  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 12:09:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 07:09:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060123121016.F13D78B389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231207 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-231800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY / NRN CT AND RI / SRN VT AND NH / SRN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231207Z - 231800Z MAXIMUM SNOW RATES OF 1.00-1.50 IN/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OVER FAR SWRN NEW ENGLAND. SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD ON NOSE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION. W-E ORIENTED ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MD AREA. HEAVY SNOW IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN HRLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10" UPSTREAM. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS. GIVEN SOME CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SE AND WARMING ALOFT...PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...AS INDICATED BY RUC AND NAM PTYPE ALGORITHMS. ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 44026970 44057148 43077324 42687471 41717492 41597372 41977083 42887058  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 18:18:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 13:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060123181948.8EDCC8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231818 MEZ000-NHZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME AND PARTS OF NH CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 231818Z - 232215Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 19-20Z OVER ERN/SRN NH...AND BY 21Z OVER SWRN ME. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 18-20Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVER THIS AREA AROUND 22Z. STRONG WAA IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE BOSTON AND GRAY ME VWP/S AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER CAPE COD WERE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF ERN NH INTO SWRN ME. CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ENEWD MOTION OF THE STRONGEST WAA ALONG THE 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ENEWD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF SRN ME THROUGH 20Z. SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BECOME ENELY OR NELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO THE SURFACE LOW RESIDING IN THE GULF OF ME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE WRN EDGE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WAS QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS WRN EDGE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BRINGS IT TO THE NH/ME BORDER BY AROUND 20Z...AND TO THE ERN GULF OF ME/DOWNEAST ME BY 23Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE SUPPORT FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL END AND SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. ..CROSBIE/GRAMS.. 01/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45196728 44857042 44307146 43467165 43187143 43137067 43827001 44496814 44746729 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 23:47:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 18:47:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060124234847.617848B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242347 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-250445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY/WRN AND CNTRL PA/WV CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 242347Z - 250445Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/LAKE EFFECT... LATEST WV/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION GIVEN INCREASING CONVECTION/LIGHTNING OVER SW PA. INITIAL BAND OF SNOW NOW OVER WRN PA WILL MOVE BY FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN PARTICULAR...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV WILL LIKELY HAVE HEAVIER SNOWS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS THE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT ZONES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO WLY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CAA. EARLIER REPORT OF THUNDERSNOW AT PIT IS EVIDENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM. ..TAYLOR.. 01/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 41597571 40067741 37808082 38328096 41137987 42717881 43137762 44257576 43967460 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 11:45:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 06:45:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128114645.01CB28B3B6@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281145 ORZ000-WAZ000-CAZ000-281745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CASCADE RANGE OF SRN WA / ORE INTO NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281145Z - 281745Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOVE 3000-3500 FT MSL THIS MORNING. THIS HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN WA/NRN ORE AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WA AND ORE COASTS WITH A RECENT BURST OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE ORE COAST. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM E OF UIL TO E OF AST TO JUST E OF ONP AS OF 11Z. EXPECT THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION TO SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN 12-15Z...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY ABOVE 3000-3500 FT MSL. SNOW RATES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT THIS TIME...THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED RATES UPWARDS OF TWO AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN GENERAL SEWD MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN WA AND NRN ORE...WHILE THE HEAVY SNOW MAY WELL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ORE CASCADES INTO NRN CA. ..MEAD.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...STO...SEW...PQR...EKA... 41462348 43972285 46332246 47002221 47432155 46482075 43622111 41572189 40682211 40562309 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 18:14:34 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 13:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128181524.E60D58B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281814 LAZ000-TXZ000-282045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281814Z - 282045Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN TX INTO WRN LA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. PRE-FRONTAL MCS WITH EMBEDDED LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NERN TX SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL TX. A STRONG 50+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN TX TODAY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S INTO SERN TX AND WRN LA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS STILL ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTING W OF A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN TX SSEWD INTO THE WRN GULF. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. LEWP AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR OF AHEAD OF THE LINE. MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. ..DIAL.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29519629 30819531 31759413 31509291 30609255 29949307 29509453 28989549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 18:52:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 13:52:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128185317.665158B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281852 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281852Z - 282115Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LOW-END SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TCU ALONG DRYLINE AND WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING BEHIND THE DRYLINE FROM SRN KS INTO N TX AND DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH NO CIN REMAINING. MUCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY VERY WEAK...BUT MAY INCREASE IN A VERY NARROW ZONE E OF DRYLINE. WARM AND VEERED WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUGGESTS CELLS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE NEWD ABOVE STABLE LAYER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING UPSTREAM SUGGEST HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN... 35529548 32479625 31969743 31899840 32149858 33039833 34179804 36849776 39009771 39149726 38869585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 21:45:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 16:45:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128214616.6D13B8B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282144 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LA THROUGH EXTREME SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282144Z - 282345Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX...AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED. THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE LA COAST TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN LA. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING LOW TOPPED LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY FOR PERSISTENT UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG N-S BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL LA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE BEFORE THE MERGERS OCCUR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE MERGING PROCESS. ..DIAL.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30559373 31829338 33259251 33099121 31489165 30269215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 00:58:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 19:58:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060129005931.629348B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290058 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-290300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LA THROUGH EXTREME SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290058Z - 290300Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX...AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED. THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE LA COAST TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN LA. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING LOW TOPPED LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY FOR PERSISTENT UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG N-S BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL LA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE BEFORE THE MERGERS OCCUR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE MERGING PROCESS. ..DIAL.. 01/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30559373 31829338 33259251 33099121 31489165 30269215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 07:13:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 02:13:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060129071401.B102F8B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290712 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290712Z - 290845Z POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION. AS OF 07Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NWRN AL SWWD THROUGH SRN MS /NEAR PIB/ INTO S-CNTRL LA. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR E OF THIS LINE OVER SERN LA WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NW MSY. AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG /PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE STRONG WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON THE SLIDELL VWP WHERE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS/. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /PER SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES/ IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NE OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS. A SIMILAR TYPE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO PERHAPS FAR SWRN AL EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR PIB SEWD TO W OF MOB/ CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. ..MEAD.. 01/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29579153 30469087 31008977 30958886 30748815 29898808 29068982 29079117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 15:29:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 10:29:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060130152957.2B38E8B389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301528 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301528Z - 301730Z THUNDERSTORMS NOW ONGOING OVER SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AL SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY AROUND MIDDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RICHER GULF MOISTURE STILL S OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHILE MORNING RAOBS SHOW FAIRLY PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 900 MB. ABOVE THE CAPPED LAYER HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT ANTICIPATED AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE SERN CONUS. COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS CONVECTION. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WLY WINDS -- AND THUS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...INCREASING FLOW AT MID LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION. EXPECT STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN AL TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND SHEAR INCREASES. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GENERAL LACK OF VEERING IN THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY REQUIRED BY MIDDAY. ..GOSS.. 01/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31098824 31988731 32548601 32948458 31818377 31078404 29808528 30298610 30208802 30208838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 20:50:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 15:50:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060130205056.345B08B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302049 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-302245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SRN HALF OF GA/SRN SC/NRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23... VALID 302049Z - 302245Z STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 23. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER S AND E AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD/SEWD OUT OF CURRENT WW. THUNDERSTORMS -- THOUGH SLOW TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY -- CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SERN AL AND CENTRAL/SWRN GA ATTM. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THAT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL JET MAX MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SRN ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER E AND SE OF CURRENT WW MAY OFFSET THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND THUS YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN THIS...A NEW WATCH EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL NWD TO PARTS OF SRN SC MAY BE REQUIRED BY 22Z. ..GOSS.. 01/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30248825 31278700 33338247 32907973 31998087 30708141 30028130 29358313 30038401 29578503 29968603 29858756 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 23:29:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 18:29:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060130232950.9FF538B394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302328 SCZ000-GAZ000-310100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302328Z - 310100Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THREAT MAY BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED...PROBABLY CONFINED TO NARROW SWATH FROM THE VICINITY OF ALBANY GA THROUGH THE SAVANNAH GA AND CHARLESTON SC AREAS...BUT A NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED BY EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW. MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO BE SPREADING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WHERE INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ONGOING. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 03Z...INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AS MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN... NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/...COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND STRENGTHENING LIFT SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR. CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED PERSISTENT SUPERCELL...OR PERHAPS A SHORT SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 01/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31708477 32098392 32468254 32798135 33028036 32827963 31927965 31178101 30878233 30868387 30898459 31178501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 12:55:06 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 07:55:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601011256.k01Cuk8X015796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011255 MTZ000-011630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN INTO ERN MT CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 011255Z - 011630Z A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT /LIBERTY TO BLAINE COUNTIES/ SEWD INTO CUSTER COUNTY. RATES SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOURS. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN ALBERTA SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT TO ERN WY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE BELOW 32 F AND GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. 12Z SOUNDING AT GGW SHOWED A LAYER OF WARM AIR WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 F LOCATED ATOP THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL MOISTENING AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 18Z IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..PETERS.. 01/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 49041191 48990832 48440739 46720511 45970456 45670629 46820826 47981051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 18:02:56 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 13:02:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601011804.k01I4YUD017442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011803 SDZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 011803Z - 012230Z FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON /WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATION/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING THE PIERRE/PHILLIP AREAS AND CHEYENNE RIVER VICINITY. HOURLY LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS KS AS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD...OWING TO DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/ELEVATED THETA-E WRAPPING N/NW INTO SD/NEB AND OVERALL PERSISTENT NATURE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT. SIMILAR TO VERTICAL WET BULB PROFILES FROM OBSERVED 12Z RAPID CITY/ABERDEEN SD RAOBS...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO ELEVATED MELTING LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB ABOVE SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. ..GUYER.. 01/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45690147 45430060 44839965 44199945 43759981 43610033 43560121 43760267 45350287 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 19:36:36 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 14:36:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601011938.k01JcCPx019160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011936 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN LA/SERN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011936Z - 012100Z MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- NEAR AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER ERN LA/SRN MS -- THOUGH DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO BE HINDERED BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION PER LATEST WSR-88D VWPS...WHICH SHOW FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING AND INCREASING WITH HEIGHT YIELDING STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED STORM OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF S OF BVE -- WITHIN A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE/RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE ENVIRONMENT -- IS NOW EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS STORM IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT PER LATEST WV IMAGERY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SWEEPING EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIMITED HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITHIN ELEVATED/WARM ADVECTION STORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL/CENTRAL GA...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS VORT MAX/DRY SLOT CONTINUES EWD. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND ASSOCIATED LOW LCLS WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE HAIL ALONG WITH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO. ..GOSS.. 01/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 29338969 31238866 32168772 31708569 30508497 29578485 30258648 30038852 28828906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 00:37:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 19:37:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020039.k020dT9i015652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020038 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE SD/NE NEB INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 020038Z - 020445Z INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SCNTRL AND SE SD...NORTHEAST NEB...INTO FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED/ARCING DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD...WCNTRL NEB...AND FAR NRN IA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS ERN KS. AS THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES THIS EVENING...21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST SREF CONSENSUS SUGGEST AN E/SE EXTRAPOLATION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR A CORRIDOR OF PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR 850 MB MELTING LAYER LOCATED ABOVE NEAR/SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/SE ACROSS FAR SCNTRL/SE SD INTO NE NEB/FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN IA THROUGH 06Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43949364 43249337 42859570 42099722 41829843 42389995 43450156 44270161 44710018 44109953 43739792 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 01:20:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 20:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020122.k021MVMj027179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020121 CAZ000-020615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020121Z - 020615Z HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS OF CA. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6500 FT. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS...STRONG PACIFIC UPPER JET/DPVA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLY EVENING MESONET OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA ARE GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500-7000 FT...WITH PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LIKELY YIELDING LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COMMON THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 38842024 38511964 37861902 36771808 36221793 36161828 36671883 37421934 37991985 38372012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 01:54:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 20:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020156.k021u1aX003632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020155 MOZ000-ARZ000-020400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR THROUGH SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020155Z - 020400Z PORTIONS OF NRN AR AND SRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MAINLY AFTER 04Z. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SERN STATES NWWD THROUGH NRN MS INTO NRN AR...SWRN MO TO A SURFACE LOW IN SERN KS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NERN TX THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO SERN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS AR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH OK. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG INTO CNTRL AND NRN AR AND SRN MO LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE EVENING FROM PARTS OF SRN MO INTO EXTREME NRN AR WHERE CAP IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER. CAP INCREASES FARTHER SWD INTO AR...AND THIS MAY LIMIT SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BECOME CLOSE TO SURFACE BASED IF THEY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR AND EXTREME SRN MO...BUT SHOULD INITIALLY BE ELEVATED FARTHER NWD INTO MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE STABLE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36189345 37939340 38259168 37078970 35968987 34889100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 02:25:42 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 21:25:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020227.k022RIUh012445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020226 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-020430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1... VALID 020226Z - 020430Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF WW 001. THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA THROUGH SRN MS NWWD INTO N CNTRL MS. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NWWD WITH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST. CLUSTER OF STORMS PERSISTS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH SRN AL NEWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS OVERSPREAD THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY ONGOING STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE NEW STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FARTHER WEST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF WW 001 THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31168339 30768402 30318597 30298752 31758743 31988567 31818438 31778393 32048319 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 07:24:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 02:24:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020726.k027QTuE016178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020725 ILZ000-MOZ000-020900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020725Z - 020900Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN MO AND WRN IL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN MO ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW ENTERED WRN MO. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS MO...SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -20 C AT 500 MB/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AHEAD OF EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 38969346 40119318 40289128 40218998 39268938 38028930 37409006 37169094 37359221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 09:00:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 04:00:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601020902.k0292Ovp007201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020901 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN/FAR SERN MO/WRN KY/SRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2... VALID 020901Z - 021000Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 002 FROM SERN MO INTO WRN KY THROUGH 12Z. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO FAR WRN KY/WRN TN AND THEN ACROSS AL TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE REGION. A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN/CENTRAL AR TO NERN TX. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCLUDING STORMS OVER FAR NERN PART OF WW 002 AND EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SSEWD TO SERN STATES IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD ZONE OF WAA ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. TO THE WEST OF THIS WAA REGIME...AIR MASS IS CAPPED AS INDICATED WITH THE 06Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AT JAN...THUS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONGEST FORCING ATTM AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS MO TOWARD IL AIDING IN THE ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITHIN WW 003. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SRN EXTENT OF CURRENT MO/IL ACTIVITY SSEWD INTO NRN PART OF WW 002 TOWARD 12Z. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34219108 35889096 37248973 37888894 37818680 35568728 33688827 33669027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 10:30:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 05:30:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021032.k02AWTND029966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021031 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-021130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/WRN AND SRN IL/SERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3... VALID 021031Z - 021130Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN WW 003. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE LOW HAS MOVED EWD INTO CENTRAL MO TO THE NNW OF COU...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO THE N OF STL AND THEN SEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO WRN KY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MO ALONG/E OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT DRY LINE WHICH EXTENDED SWD INTO CENTRAL AR. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED STRONG LOW-LEVEL HELICITY /0-3 KM SRH RANGING FROM 300-450 M2/S2/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. PRIMARY THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN MO INTO WRN/SRN IL. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND SERN IA TO THE NORTH OF WW 003. LIMITED INSTABILITY N OF WW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS N OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 36549113 37809157 38369240 38679274 39889238 41129289 41099129 40618925 40108840 38528767 37928807 37458945 36539025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 12:01:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 07:01:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021203.k02C35PX014184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021201 CAZ000-021800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 021201Z - 021800Z HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS PROVIDING FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FOR SOME TIME...AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. ..LEVIT.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 36081817 36771777 37261788 37751837 38191903 38281961 37921990 37541970 37051924 36621894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 12:44:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 07:44:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021246.k02Ck4Mt029508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021245 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF NRN FL/SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021245Z - 021315Z TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN GA WWD INTO SERN AL...AND THEN NNWWD ACROSS AL. RICH MOISTURE RESIDES ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THIS REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT TLH/BHM SUGGEST LITTLE SURFACE HEATING IS REQUIRED /SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S AT TLH/ FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. THUS...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR SERN GA...FL PANHANDLE EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB... 30168748 31358665 31558447 31748252 31158198 30088257 29868412 29508519 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 13:13:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 08:13:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021314.k02DEvu1008259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021314 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-021345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO WEST CENTRAL IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3... VALID 021314Z - 021345Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL INTO WEST CENTRAL IND. AT 12Z...SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN MO WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM FAR ERN MO INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E THEN SE FROM THE SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AIDING IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IL. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD THIS MORNING INTO WRN IND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM TAZEWELL COUNTY IL SWD TO BOLLINGER COUNTY MO. STRONG AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT/SHEAR OVERSPREADING IL/IND ATOP THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN MAINTAINING ONGOING LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 37519013 38758989 39969044 40418997 40608863 40548692 38748658 38568846 38208941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 13:56:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 08:56:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021358.k02DwI8k025944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021357 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/FAR NERN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4... VALID 021357Z - 021530Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 004. LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN EXTENT OF SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING INTO FAR NERN AR. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF STORMS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. 09Z RUC AND 00Z WRF-NMM4 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING SQUALL LINE INTO PARTS OF WRN TN THIS MORNING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS WRN TN FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW LATER THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 35039067 36588993 37918980 38558868 38638696 35128685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 15:46:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 10:46:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021547.k02Flxeu017223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021547 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-021715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND NERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021547Z - 021715Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS/HORIZONTAL ROLLS HAVE DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF AL. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS AL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO THE W OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM W OF RMG TO E OF ANB TO AUO AND THEN SEWD INTO SWRN GA NEAR ABY. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BHM SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DESPITE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF FORECAST STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY CROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ELEVATED OR WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NWRN AND W-CNTRL GA. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB... 32038688 33028728 34558695 35018659 35368616 35248515 34308473 33298478 32348527 31948557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 16:20:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 11:20:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021622.k02GMNtX006598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021621 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL INTO WRN/CNTRL INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6... VALID 021621Z - 021745Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #6 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TWO TIERS OF ECNTRL/SE IL COUNTIES INTO WCNTRL INDIANA. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL INDIANA. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN IL AT AROUND 35 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM CHAMPAIGN-MATTOON TO BETWEEN SALEM/LAWRENCEVILLE AT 1615Z. RELATIVELY MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS JASPER/RICHLAND/EDWARDS COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WW 6 IN WCNTRL INDIANA BY AROUND 18Z. COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...EXISTING BREAKS IN CLOUDS/GRADUAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX WILL LEAD TO CONTINUAL/GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR LINE-EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 40188807 40628661 39838545 38728534 38268611 38668822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 16:42:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 11:42:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021644.k02Gi2DA019401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021643 FLZ000-GAZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO NERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021643Z - 021815Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1635Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND FROM W OF VDI TO E OF ABY TO SW OF PFN. DESPITE SOME MIXING OUT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...AIR MASS E OF THIS DEVELOPMENT AND WW 0005 HAS WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S FROM THE FL PENINSULA INTO SERN GA...SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING AND POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD AID IN FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED ON CURRENT VWPS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 45-55 KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31878301 32208274 32428218 32148159 31478112 30708140 29898130 29498150 29488218 29588254 29818304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 17:11:22 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 12:11:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021712.k02HCuBF005221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021712 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021711 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021711Z - 021845Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 17Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM HENRY COUNTY SWD TO MADISON COUNTY IN WRN TN. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 60F HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES HAVE BECOME LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL OWING TO VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MOREOVER...OKOLONA MS PROFILER INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF ANVIL LEVEL WINDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING NEWD AROUND MID MS VALLEY UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MS WITH AXIS OF STRONGEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW STILL IN SWRN QUADRANT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SWD INTO FAR NERN MS AND NRN AL. GIVEN THE MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH WEAKENING ANVIL-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35268848 36618796 36618496 34368575 34408881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 17:30:12 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 12:30:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021731.k02HVkIF015943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021731 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021730 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-021900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021730Z - 021900Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IND AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z. AS OF 1720Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM E-CNTRL IL INTO WRN TN WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION OF 20-25 KTS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BACKING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACHING OF THIS LOW IS RESULTING IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGELY A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER...AN AXIS MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX... 36658764 39588756 39548481 36598498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 18:28:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 13:28:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021829.k02ITY7e015100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021828 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-022000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021828Z - 022000Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR NW OH...WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS SEEN IN EARLIER 12Z DAVENPORT IA AND LINCOLN IL RAOBS/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF STACKED LOW ALONG THE MO/IL BORDER. ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...WITH PARCELS GENERALLY BASED AT 900 MB OR HIGHER. WHILE AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /30-35 KTS/ INITIALLY EXISTS FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/HAIL PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN APPROACH OF STACKED LOW. EXPERIMENTAL SPC HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1 INCH HAILSTONES INTO MID AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 40288670 41658684 42358609 42198414 41278378 40408395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 19:07:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 14:07:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601021908.k02J8qWv005283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021907 CAZ000-030000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 021907Z - 030000Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTO W/SW FACING SLOPES ABOVE 6500-7000 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST...WITH DRY SLOT ADVECTING NE ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL CA. ACROSS THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS...LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 6500-7000 FT. DPVA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THE COPIOUS HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 38712028 38561968 37221837 36241816 36251881 37191930 37801992 38082027 38362038 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 20:52:56 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 15:52:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022054.k02KsS6Z032739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022053 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-022230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND INTO CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7... VALID 022053Z - 022230Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN PART OF WW 007. AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KY. AS OF 2035Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE FROM N OF LAF IN NWRN IND TO SE OF BWG IN S-CNTRL KY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS E-CNTRL MO/W-CNTRL IL COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS JUST TO THE E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER CNTRL KY. HERE...MORE LOCALIZED FORCING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH TORNADOES RECENTLY REPORTED IN HARDIN AND BULLITT COUNTIES. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR AS THESE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE OVERTAKEN BY PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABILE AIR MASS OVER WRN OH SWD INTO ERN KY. HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND E OF WW 007 IN KY AND AN ADDITIONAL...SMALL WW MAY BE NEED SOON. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 36638692 40258731 40048483 36598483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 21:19:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 16:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022121.k02LLPLt015049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022120 GAZ000-ALZ000-022245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL INTO WRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022120Z - 022245Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS DEEPENING FROM W OF ATL TO NE OF MGM...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO NRN AL. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE W OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM RMG TO W OF ATL TO S OF MCN. AIR MASS TO THE W OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DRIER WITH WWD EXTENT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S FROM BHM TO MGM. HOWEVER...OVER FAR ERN AL INTO WRN GA...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR EXISTS ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THIS BOUNDARY /AS SAMPLED BY FFC VWP WHERE 0-1 KM SRH IS 100-200 M2/S2/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS MATURE PRIOR TO CROSSING BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONCE STORMS MOVE E OF THIS BOUNDARY...THEY SHOULD TEND TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN... 34648545 34748488 33548392 33198402 32538469 32228529 32398583 32718620 33968629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 21:49:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 16:49:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022150.k02LovqN031063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022149 FLZ000-GAZ000-022315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL EWD ACROSS NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7... VALID 022149Z - 022315Z POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS SRN PORTION OF WW 008 AREA...AND PERHAPS E OF WW TOWARD ST. AUGUSTINE. AS OF 2135Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS FROM APPROXIMATELY 40 S OF TLH TO 40 NNE CTY WITH A ENEWD STORM MOTION OF 30-35 KTS. DESPITE SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING...AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...JACKSONVILLE VWP INDICATES 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 WITH 45-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29398466 30108388 30448304 30458175 30238139 29938133 29518212 29158350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 22:54:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 17:54:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022256.k02MuMA6027931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022255 WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-030030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/EXTREME SRN OH/WRN WV/SW VA/NE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 9... VALID 022255Z - 030030Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 9 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS REMAINDER OF ERN KY/WRN WV/SW VA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN OH...AS WELL AS NE TN. LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS ECNTRL KY AT THIS TIME...WITH BOWING SEGMENT AROUND 25 MILES W OF JACKSON KY AT 2245Z. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO WRN WV/SW VA IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN AIRMASS QUALITY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 9 MAY BE NEEDED SOON GIVEN EXISTING CONVECTIVE LINE AND AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS. ..GUYER.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38508417 38798312 39018181 38698088 37708065 37098092 36318235 36088377 36298440 36968436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 23:15:45 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 18:15:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601022317.k02NHHam002711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022316 SCZ000-GAZ000-030045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN GA THROUGH SWRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10... VALID 022316Z - 030045Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS E CNTRL GA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THREAT MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO ERN GA AND PARTS OF WRN SC. WW MAY BE NEEDED E OF WW 10 IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUE EWD. EARLY THIS EVENING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS E CNTRL GA. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG AND N OF 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. WEDGE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NC SWWD THROUGH WRN SC. STRATUS DECK PERSISTS S OF WEDGE FRONT IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS TOWARD WRN SC. THIS COULD POSE A LIMITING FACTOR AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. NEVERTHELESS A MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 10. ..DIAL.. 01/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33228322 33918296 33878248 33878207 33858158 32798151 32288293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 01:29:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 20:29:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030130.k031UwT8016810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030129 WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-030300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/NE TN/FAR SW WV/FAR WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11... VALID 030129Z - 030300Z VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH #11 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS THREAT MAY DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BEFORE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME. AN ISOLATED SHORT-TERM SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT REMAINS ACROSS FAR SE KY INTO EXTREME SW WV/WRN VA AND NE TN...ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE/STORM ORGANIZATION -- ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH EXTENT PER AREA WSR-88D VADS -- HOWEVER COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/DIMINISHING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE DETRIMENTAL FACTORS IN AN ALREADY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ..GUYER.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 37998232 38068184 37638160 36928205 35758253 35608282 35618347 35628404 36258411 36608392 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 02:22:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 21:22:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030223.k032Naj1005867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030222 SCZ000-GAZ000-030345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0822 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11... VALID 030222Z - 030345Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES... DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM E CNTRL GA INTO SRN SC NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HIGHEST SHORT TERM TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH SUPERCELL ON SRN END OF LINE OVER E CNTRL GA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME SRN SC AROUND 03Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM CNTRL SC SWWD INTO E CNTRL GA CONTINUES EWD. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT/CVA ACCOMPANYING A VORT MAX THAT IS MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN GA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN SC IS LESS UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...A THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION AND MAY HELP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO SRN SC NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE WITH ANY STORMS ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW IS ORIGINATING FROM HIGHER THETA-E AIR. ..DIAL.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS... 32688182 32968149 32658081 32268096 32308166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 03:20:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 22:20:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030322.k033MGGP029048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030321 NCZ000-SCZ000-030515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030321Z - 030515Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS HAVE INCREASED FROM NERN SC INTO ERN NC WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THERMAL TROUGH ATTENDING THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 35117680 33817930 34928025 35987763 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 05:46:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 00:46:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601030548.k035mSQj016343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030547 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030547 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-031145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN CT...MUCH OF MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 030547Z - 031145Z MODERATE TO HEAVY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CT AND MUCH OF MA TONIGHT WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH AN HOUR. MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT ORH AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM MD AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT ULJ OVER ME. COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW IN PROGRESS NEAR DOV WITH 4MB PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PAST TWO HOURS OVER EASTERN DE IN THE 05Z SFC ANALYSIS. LEADING EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND UL SHORTWAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE THREAT AREA BY 07Z. AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT DEEP ISOTHERMAL SUB ZERO LAYER WAS OBSERVED AT 00Z IN OKX AND ALB SOUNDINGS WITH SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER IN LOWEST 50MB. OBSERVED SHIFT OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW AS VERTICAL MOTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THREAT AREA COMBINED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS WITH CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE REMAIN MAINLY SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA. ..SCHNEIDER.. 01/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY... 41827261 41637340 41737364 42067368 42357346 42477314 42527275 42567233 42567178 42497139 42277117 42017129 41857212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 18:08:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 13:08:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601081809.k08I9ImF011555@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081808 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT/EXTREME ERN ID/WY/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081808Z - 090015Z PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE BIG HORN MTNS. HRLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW MOVING INTO SCNTRL WY PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM ID INTO SCNTRL WY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL WY THIS AFTN. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND RIVERTON WY RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SNOW FROM NW OF RIW TO CPR. THIS SUPPORTS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 750-650MB LAYER FORECAST BY THE ETA. THE ETA AND GFS QPF SEEM TO DEPICT QPF THE BEST THIS AFTN...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE BIG HORNS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW ACROSS THE TETONS WILL BE DIMINISHING BY EVENING...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWS WITH ISOLD LTG POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES. IN ADDITION...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER PASSES. ..TAYLOR.. 01/08/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... 42120862 42611201 44971319 45920715 44270539 42960450 42040562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 12:21:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 07:21:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601091222.k09CMQce002781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091221 WAZ000-091615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CASCADES OF WESTERN WA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 091221Z - 091615Z HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE 3000 TO 3500 FEET LEVEL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CASCADES OF WRN WA. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD SLOWLY RISE WITH SNOWFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ACROSS WA INTO SW CANADA. THE MOISTURE PLUME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT SIDE OF A 60 KT SWLY JET AT THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE AS THE JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE ACROSS THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD RISE FROM THE 3000 TO 3500 FOOT LEVEL TO THE 4000 TO 4500 FOOT LEVEL BY THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 01/09/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48792066 48032042 46582083 45862128 45732200 46162260 47692228 48662197 48892152 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 00:02:12 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 19:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601100003.k0A03HNf024158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100001 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NE TX...EXTREME SERN OK...NWRN LA...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100001Z - 100230Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NE TX IN 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME AND MOVE/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA THEREAFTER. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...WITH SOME STRONG GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND WILL BECOME LESS POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT PIVOTS EWD OVER OK THROUGH NEXT 4-6 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK FRONTOGENETIC/CYCLOGENETIC FORCING ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER AREA WILL STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS...RESULTING IN INCREASE IN BOTH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER FLOW AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...AS WELL AS IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA E OF SFC LOW AND ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW BETWEEN DAL-TYR...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD TXK. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SSW-NNE ORIENTED BOUNDARY LAYER CU STREAMERS GENERALLY E OF CRP-PRX LINE...DENOTING WRN EDGE OF RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MEANWHILE PLUME OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED/SHALLOW CONVECTION THAT IS THICKENING OVER CENTRAL TX...BETWEEN DFW METROPLEX AND JCT. WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS THIS PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NWRN PORTION OF AREA NOW COVERED BY CU FIELD...IN NE TX. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AT LEAST 30 KT...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN AND PARCELS TO LIFT ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC...REALIZING MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. BUOYANCY SHOULD BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC S OF FRONTAL ZONE AND MORE ELEVATED FARTHER N OVER AR. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND OCCASIONAL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES. ..EDWARDS.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... 32269595 33469525 34519501 34489443 34399388 34169353 33389329 32529354 31389432 30989541 31269615 31999605 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 06:30:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 01:30:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601100631.k0A6VH8e020737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100630 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-101130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN OK...SCENTRAL/SERN KS AND CENTRAL/SRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 100630Z - 101130Z BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS INTO NERN OK/SERN KS OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. FURTHER EAST...MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER SWRN AND CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 08-11Z. A NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO WHERE THE STRONGEST ELEVATED WAA WILL EXIST. LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WAS INTENSIFYING OVER SCENTRAL KS/NCENTRAL OK AS BACKING 500 MB FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED AT LAMONT AND WICHITA...WHILE VEERING MID LEVEL FLOW WAS OCCURRING AT VICI AND DODGE CITY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEVERAL SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL AT TIMES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO PRIMARY BANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NCENTRAL OK/SCENTRAL KS. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR AGGREGATION IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT ALONG WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS REGION...MODERATE TO STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E-W ORIENTED MODERATE PRECIPITATION BAND DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THIS AREA...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING NORTH OF A LINE FROM CNU TO SGF BY 09Z. THUS A CHANGE OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM SGF TO VIH. IN THIS REGION...THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN FROM 09-12Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 38699216 38609421 38129595 37599749 36929830 36439861 36099823 36229728 36439629 36689539 37019348 37309182 38419114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 12:32:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 07:32:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601101234.k0ACXwAQ032432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101232 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...WRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101232Z - 101630Z PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK...SE KS AND WRN MO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER AR WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS SW MO INTO SE KS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX NEAR 700 MB. ACROSS SW MO...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S F AND SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. JUST ABOVE THE SFC...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER OK DRIFTS ENEWD. THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS SHOULD BE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 850 MB LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR TULSA AND SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO SCNTRL MO BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY LIGHTEN ACROSS SE KS AND NE OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WRAP PRECIPITATION SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS WRN MO. ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 38109567 38799420 39259259 38889165 38129146 37319237 36549427 36119588 36429662 37419669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 13:04:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 08:04:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601101305.k0AD5qER019481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101304 MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-101700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WA...NRN ID...NW MT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101304Z - 101700Z HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS OF WA...NRN ID AND NW MT TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS MAINLY ABOVE THE 3500 TO 4000 FOOT LEVEL. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POCKET OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN WA...NRN ID AND NW MT WITH A SECONDARY PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN ORE AND SRN WA. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED NNW TO SSE...LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WA AND ORE. AS THE LEFT EXIT REGIN OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND ABOUT 3000 FEET IN THE BITTEROOTS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OR RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SNOWFALL HEAVIEST ABOVE 400O FEET. ..BROYLES.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 46881575 47371625 47931760 47941893 47651990 46952061 46222118 46552216 47962179 48962019 48881654 48171488 47331428 46791478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 18:42:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 13:42:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601101843.k0AIhB5g024301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101842 TNZ000-KYZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101842Z - 101945Z A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS OVER SWRN TN /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN HAYWOOD TO FAYETTE COUNTIES/. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING NEWD AT 35-40 KT ALONG A WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR MEM NEWD TO NERN TN. DESPITE WEAK AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...A SWLY 50 KT LLJ PER MEMPHIS VAD SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST TO REACH THE SURFACE PER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. ANY ADDITIONAL LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR THREAT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. ..PETERS.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35748941 36068939 36428884 36568739 36558675 35298668 35068774 35018929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 21:02:00 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 16:02:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601102103.k0AL30rk026355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102101 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102101Z - 102230Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AND OR EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA...IS EXPECTED ACROSS A PART OF NRN MIDDLE TN AND WRN KY THROUGH 23-00Z. LIMITED THREAT AREA AND OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOW ECHO...APEX NOW MOVING INTO SWRN KY /TRIGG COUNTY/...MAINTAINING A SPEED OF 40 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. THIS BOW CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY PER SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS WAS RETREATING NWD AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 11/00Z AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...NOW OVER SERN MO DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE BOW ECHO...COLD POOL COMBINED WITH 50 KT SWLY LLJ...NOW OBSERVED AT PAH VAD...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF ONGOING BOW. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES. ..PETERS.. 01/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36358790 36818775 37038780 37208805 37588768 37868729 38178587 36978595 36578652 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 00:34:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 19:34:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601110035.k0B0Z98J017109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110033 IDZ000-110530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 110033Z - 110530Z HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS OF ID THIS EVENING...WITH 2 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5500-6000 FT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF ID. 00Z BOISE RAOB AND LOCAL WSR-88D VWP ALREADY FEATURES MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 50 KTS OR GREATER ABOVE 4 KM...WITH 0.66 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER /AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ REPRESENTATIVE OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALSO IN ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z BOISE RAOB...MESONET OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY DEPICT SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500-6000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD FLUCTUATE LITTLE TONIGHT AMIDST THE PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST FACING SLOPES. ..GUYER.. 01/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI... 44981670 44831536 44071431 43401404 43231483 43451548 44051590 44501634 44681672 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 05:49:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 00:49:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601110550.k0B5oJ4Z006383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110548 MIZ000-110945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 110548Z - 110945Z LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 08-12Z. HRLY AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.02-0.04 IN. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER WCENTRAL IL AT 06Z...MOVES ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL IND BY 12Z...THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO NRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR MUSKEGON TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY. ELY WINDS ALONG WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS IN THE LOW LEVEL SHOULD SUPPORT LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL SUPPORT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA ONCE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES. ..CROSBIE.. 01/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44888408 44708581 44308629 43608646 43458635 43458477 43758395 44368334 44718333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 18:35:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 13:35:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601111836.k0BIaRwB028040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111835 MEZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 111835Z - 112330Z FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ME BETWEEN 21-00Z. LATEST MESO-ANALYSES INDICATED A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED INLAND OVER SRN ME...GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 20S...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 32F THROUGH 00Z. ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A RATHER DRY AIR MASS ACROSS ME...CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID IN MOISTENING. THIS LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND MOST PRONOUNCED FROM 850-950 MB TO SUPPORT A PTYPE FOR FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM OVER SERN ONTARIO TO FAR SRN QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD INTO NRN ME LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RATES UP TO 0.1 INCH PER 3 HOUR EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z. ..PETERS.. 01/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45666763 45366887 45617064 46627018 47536922 47316777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 21:53:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 16:53:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601122155.k0CLtIPX024188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122154 LAZ000-TXZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122154Z - 122330Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED NEAR HOU AS OF 2135Z. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES OF 70-75 F. HOWEVER...A MOISTENING BOUNDARY-LAYER COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY ARE LIKELY ERODING CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. DESPITE SOME WEAKNESSES IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE 2-6 KM LAYER...CURRENT LEDBETTER TX PROFILER INDICATES RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN MUCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM OWING TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN TX WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ..MEAD.. 01/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29409542 29599609 30429651 31219617 31789518 31959444 31589381 30829364 29889400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 23:25:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601122327.k0CNRHOR025430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122326 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-130130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122326Z - 130130Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET OVER ERN OK/WRN AR...AND SWD INTO PARTS OF NERN TX/NWRN LA. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 13/01Z. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTENING/ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER OF S CENTRAL KS -- MOVING EWD INTO ERN OK...TOWARD LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. INCREASING UVV AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/MOISTENING WITHIN THE CAPPING LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/...WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/WRN AR SOMEWHERE AROUND 13/02Z. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STORMS COULD BE ELEVATED ABOVE A SLIGHTLY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THOUGH THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE...AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY AS STORMS BECOME MORE INTENSE/WELL ESTABLISHED AND POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO DRAW INFLOW AIR FROM VERY NEAR THE SURFACE. ..GOSS.. 01/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 36589483 36399412 35699294 34259263 32449379 32319610 33549653 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 00:34:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:34:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130036.k0D0aN0G003952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130035 MOZ000-130230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130035Z - 130230Z IT APPEARS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. RECENT IR IMAGERY FEATURES COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO ARRIVAL OF DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO MO /REF 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB/...ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E INFLUX WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PER RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PRESENCE OF AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37029442 37599364 38099171 37479102 36919114 36659164 36539294 36659414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 03:51:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 22:51:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130352.k0D3qw7l023861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130352 ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SRN MO/WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 130352Z - 130515Z LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW. SQUALL LINE -- WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS AND LOCALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- IS ONGOING ATTM FROM SWRN MO SSWWD INTO NERN TX. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH/ALONG SURFACE FRONT...WHERE WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. THOUGH STORMS APPEAR TO BE SURFACE-BASED OR NEARLY SO...OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER HAS REMAINED IN THE FORM OF HAIL THUS FAR. NONETHELESS...WITH 41 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 451 M2/S2 0-1 KM SREH PER LATEST DEQUEEN AR PROFILER...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES. ..GOSS.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD... 36939312 36399144 32069343 32099635 32389644 34349458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 05:10:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 00:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130511.k0D5Bscl005050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130511 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130510 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-130645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...AR/NERN TX/NRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 130510Z - 130645Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E/SE OF CURRENT WW. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MORE STABLE NEAR/E OF THE MS RIVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AR AND ADJACENT NRN LA TO ALLOW LINE OF STORMS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT SHIFTS E OF WW BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z. THEREFORE...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS SQUALL LINE MOVES EWD...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER ERN AR AND PARTS OF NRN LA. ..GOSS.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...FWD... 36549274 36389147 33079118 31659236 31899583 33579413 35689293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 07:07:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 02:07:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130709.k0D793D4026097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130708 ARZ000-LAZ000-130745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR AND NWRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 130708Z - 130745Z THE LINE OF TSTMS HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF WT 13 AND INTO WT 14. TAIL END OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN LAGGING ACROSS NWRN LA AND ECNTRL TX. A LINE MOVEMENT OF 260/35 SUGGESTS THAT ERN DESOTO AND RED RIVER PARISHES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TSTM THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 08-0830Z. THESE TSTMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CNTRL LA AND ERN AR BY 08Z. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... 32259402 36419204 36429151 31979350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 07:47:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 02:47:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601130749.k0D7nM0L010645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130747 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-130915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...MS AND ERN/CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130747Z - 130915Z WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM FROM WT 14. UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE INTENSITY HAS BEEN STEADY STATE OR ON A SLOW DECLINE SINCE 06Z AS IT OUT PACES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS HINT...HOWEVER...THAT A STRONGER IMPULSE IS BEGINNING TO TURN EWD ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK. AS THIS STRONGER ASCENT MIGRATES TOWARD THE MS RVR...TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO INCREASE WITHIN THE LINE...AND PERHAPS AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 60-65 DEGREES F WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE MS DELTA AND CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT CROSS-FRONT COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ATOP SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM ABOUT CNTRL MS SWD TO THE GULF COAST...THE HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST THERE. FARTHER N...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER...MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN NRN MS AND WRN TN WILL BE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31458917 30168955 30199047 30599157 31489129 32889053 34399036 36438939 36458770 35838763 34468798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 09:59:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 04:59:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131001.k0DA1geO002966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131000 MSZ000-LAZ000-131100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA AND EXTREME WCNTRL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14... VALID 131000Z - 131100Z FAST MOVING LINE OF TSTMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MS RVR NORTH OF ABOUT VICKSBURG AND WILL CROSS INTO SWRN MS FROM NERN LA SOUTH OF THAT LATITUDE BY 11Z. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT IN WT 14 WILL END. UNTIL THEN...TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN LA AND WRN MS AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK BEGINS TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTM LINE SEGMENT APPROACHING AREAS N AND W OF NATCHEZ MS IS BOWING AND MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS CELL INTO WT 16 BY 11Z. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31529259 33099093 32729051 32039080 31299155 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 11:19:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 06:19:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131121.k0DBLIlt027949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131120 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-131245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...ERN LA...SWRN AL AND EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131120Z - 131245Z IR SATL SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS CNTRL MS SWWD TO THE GULF COAST EAST OF KLCH AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE SWINGS TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE SOMEWHAT POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY FIELDS. STRONGER STORMS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS ERN LA WHERE 60-63 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXIST. BUT...THUS FAR THIS MORNING...TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN ROOTED ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A JACKSON MS LATITUDE. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LWR MS VLY...THE ERN LA/SRN MS STORMS MAY BEGIN TO ROOT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. DOWNSTREAM...THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY/ DESTABILIZATION INTO SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AND STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY TEND TO FAVOR THIS ZONE. AS SUCH...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM...AT LEAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL. STRONGEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN MS...LA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN AL AND WRN FL PNHDL. COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS. ..RACY.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29629282 31239209 33618965 33668800 32848746 31328661 30128621 29048692 29508997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 16:14:34 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 11:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131616.k0DGGN5R024162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131615 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-131745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL AND SRN/CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131615Z - 131745Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 18Z. AS OF 16Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE FROM MIDDLE TN SSWWD INTO CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF LINE /COMPOSED OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ EXTENDED FROM NEAR GZH TO SE OF MOB. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK MESOLOW ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT S OF SEM WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO S OF TOI TO NEAR AAF. AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND S OF THIS WARM FRONT IS MOIST AND WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO 80-90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN A NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZING INTO CNTRL GA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50-60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/ ACROSS THE FL PNHDL...SRN AL AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA...ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 29948566 32638427 32378138 29708245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 18:02:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 13:02:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131804.k0DI47nY030294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131803 INZ000-ILZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL / EXTREME NWRN IN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 131803Z - 132300Z PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 19Z INTO FAR NERN IL...WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1.00 IN/HR THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SOME ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR DURING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES. DEEPENING LOW WILL COOL COLUMN AND ALLOW FOR RAIN OVER FAR NERN IL TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY ABOUT 19Z. HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PERSIST OVER NERN IL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HRLY RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 16-17Z INDICATE UP TO 0.12 IN POSSIBLE PER HR...WITH 0.05-0.08 IN GENERAL. THIS SHOULD CORRESPOND TO HEAVY WET SNOW RATES OF 0.50 - 1.00 IN/HR. ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX... 41958724 40898755 40238813 39888842 39878902 40038940 40678930 41618876 42098835 42318799 42378737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 18:54:36 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 13:54:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601131856.k0DIuPSd013164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131855 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PNHDL INTO SRN AND CNTRL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...18... VALID 131855Z - 132030Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ENHANCED RISK FROM THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG ROTATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER BARBOUR AND HENRY COUNTIES IN FAR SERN AL. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS / 5-6 MB/3 HRS / EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER NEWD INTO UPSTATE SC. AS A RESULT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FT. RUCKER AL VWP SHOWING STRONG NEAR-GROUND SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 350-450 M2/S2. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS SWRN GA...HORIZONTAL ADVECTION IS OFFSETTING THIS PROCESS TO SOME DEGREE AND MODIFICATION OF 18Z TLH SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THROUGH 20-21Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST FROM N OF ABY TO W OF TLH. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32698576 33208479 33238202 29668293 29968723 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 21:07:25 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 16:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601132109.k0DL9CYE005755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132108 SCZ000-GAZ000-132245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO ERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132108Z - 132245Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES HAS MAINTAINED A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN GA INTO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL AS OF 2055Z. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS SUPPORTING MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS HAVE CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENED WITH LOCAL VWPS INDICATING STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS AS TO HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRENGTHENING WAA BECOMING BETTER COUPLED WITH INCREASED MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...THIS FORCING AND STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SUSTAINED. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 31338132 31918207 33078199 33888208 34778231 34958183 34688065 34338003 33257975 32687971 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 21:35:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 16:35:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601132137.k0DLblKC029669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132136 FLZ000-GAZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO NERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132136Z - 132300Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR GNV TO SE OF AYS. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29678110 29278212 29848258 31318233 31518210 31348144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 22:48:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 17:48:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601132250.k0DMo7GQ015434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132248 FLZ000-140045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132248Z - 140045Z A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH HAIL AND/OR WIND THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NRN SECTIONS OF MD AREA NEAR SRN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 19. GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MODIFIED 18Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG MID TO UPPER FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...STORMS HAVE FORMED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER ERN FL...PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAK LEAD VORT LOBE. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MDT INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER HERE COMPARED TO FARTHER N WITHIN WW 19...THUS TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER AS WELL. 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE AVERAGING 50-75 M2/S2 MLB AND AMX VWPS...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 01/13/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 28068183 28928167 29228095 27978019 26967981 26038012 26038070 27228131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 00:48:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 19:48:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140050.k0E0oBf5013596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140049 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-140215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18...19... VALID 140049Z - 140215Z CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WW 18 AND 19. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN GA INTO SRN SC ATTM...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM FAR SERN GA SWD INTO NRN FL. STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE E OF WW 18 -- WHICH EXPIRES AT 14/02Z -- AND DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WW 19...WHERE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. EVENING JAX /JACKSONVILLE FL/ RAOB -- FEATURING 36 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND JUST OVER 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND THUS EXPECT THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST EXTRAP0LATION SUGGESTS THAT FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OFF THE SERN GA COAST BY 04-05Z...AND THEREFORE -- THOUGH FRONT MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER NRN FL -- MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER WW 19 BY ITS SCHEDULED 14/06Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33028206 33048109 33508002 32977917 31328117 29418085 28938168 29158251 29818296 31118265 31798292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 02:05:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 21:05:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140207.k0E278X5018952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140200 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-140400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC/ERN NC/SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20... VALID 140200Z - 140400Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 20...AND SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS SERN VA. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AIRMASS REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS WW 20. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS...AS WELL AS A PRE-FRONTAL STORM CLUSTER MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN SC. THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION. A RELATIVELY UNIFORM AIRMASS EXISTS EWD TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND EXTENDS AS FAR NWD AS SERN VA ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBS AND EVENING RAOBS. GIVEN THIS -- AND PERSISTENT EWD-PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD E AND NE OF WW 20. THOUGH MAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN WW 20 FOR SEVERAL HOURS...STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD OVER SERN PORTION OF WW MAY APPROACH THE ERN BOUNDARY OF WW 20 AROUND 04Z. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 36188070 37067745 36877598 35297597 33797807 33067914 33058136 34608085 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 02:09:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 21:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140211.k0E2BZmK021383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140210 FLZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 140210Z - 140415Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AS STORMS MOVE INLAND AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED IF STORMS INTENSIFY. LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 00Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATES SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER WITH TIME. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL OVER N CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF THIS LINE...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN A FOCUS. LEAD LEFT MOVER HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS IT HAS TREKKED ACROSS NRN FL THIS EVENING. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...EITHER FROM OUTFLOW OR IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MESOCYCLONES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO IF STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY. ..JEWELL.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 29128297 29288275 29328220 29328156 28228213 28008236 27908356 28748320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 04:01:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 23:01:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140404.k0E446Vg007692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140401 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-140500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC/SERN GA/NERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 19... VALID 140401Z - 140500Z SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ALONG BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MOVING OFF THE GA COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NERN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN SC. THOUGH THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS WITH STORMS ALONG THIS LINE...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD/OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS FRONT CONTINUES EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CLEARED ALL OF WW AREA BY 05Z -- THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 19...THOUGH A LIMITED THREAT MAY LINGER JUST BEYOND WW EXPIRATION OVER COASTAL NERN FL. HOWEVER...WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSHORE...REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS NERN FL. FURTHER S...MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF FL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...MLB...JAX... 29638082 28948171 29008200 29788195 33478006 33107924 32098023 30818095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 07:18:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 02:18:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140720.k0E7KYOY023232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140719 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-140845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...DE...SRN NJ...NRN NECK OF VA AND ERN/SRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140719Z - 140845Z WELL-DEVELOP SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED OVER THE NRN NECK OF VA...ALONG NRN PORTION OF A LINE OF TSTMS THAT EXTENDS SWD INTO ERN NC. THIS BOW ECHO WAS MOVING 210/45 AND IS EXTRAPOLATED INTO NERN MD AROUND 10Z. VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS A H5 JET OF 95+ KTS ROTATES NWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE OH VLY UPPER TROUGH AXIS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL PA HAS MAINTAINED A SELY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND 0-1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WAS BEING OBSERVED ON THE DOVER DE VWP. THUS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL SCALE LEWPS AND BOWS...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN VA NEWD THROUGH ERN MD INTO DE...EXTREME SERN PA AND NJ WHERE 56-61 DEGREE F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INFLUENCE OF A COOLER NEAR-SURFACE MARINE LAYER VCNTY CHESAPEAKE BAY/ATLANTIC...ANY STRONGER TSTM MAY BE CAPABLE AT BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..RACY.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 37907696 39097653 40057583 40217531 39917454 39437471 38747521 38017553 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 08:30:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 03:30:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601140832.k0E8WBBJ017399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140831 NCZ000-VAZ000-141000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21... VALID 140831Z - 141000Z LINE OF TSTMS...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND BOWS...CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS ERN NC AND SERN VA AT 40-45 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LINE CLEARING THE MAINLAND BETWEEN 09-10Z AND THE COASTAL WATERS BY 1030Z. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS BACKED IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER PRESSURE FALL AXIS OVER PA. FARTHER S...TIME-SERIES TO THE VWP AND SURFACE WINDS SHOW A VEERING WIND PATTERN WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE TSTMS. BUT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE CROSS-COMPONENT FLOW TO THE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WILL MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS ALONG WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. ..RACY.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 34407668 36617629 37217645 37437650 37397530 35217516 34447588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 11:29:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 06:29:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601141131.k0EBV59s020995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141130 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN NJ...SERN NY INCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141130Z - 141300Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS MORNING WITH THE 989 MB LOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH NERN PA. MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS CONTINUES TO PUNCH NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH STRONG UVV SUPPORTING A LINE OF TSTMS FROM SRN NY SWD INTO NJ. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TSTM LINE TO EVOLVE INTO BOWS/LEWPS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN LONG-LIVED DURING THE NIGHT. THE STRONG SLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED SEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS/INSTABILITY NWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND THE RESIDUAL COLD WEDGE OVER SERN NY...NWRN NJ AND NWRN CT HAS BEEN ERODING RAPIDLY. STILL...THERE WAS LIKELY A SKIN LAYER OF STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION...OWING TO RELATIVELY COOL MARINE TRAJECTORIES. AS TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS. RATHER... STRONGER CELLS THAT EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED BOWS TEND TO PRODUCE STREAKS OF HIGHER WIND/ISOLD TORNADO PROBABILITIES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NYC AREA...SERN NY AND WRN CT THROUGH 14Z. ..RACY.. 01/14/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 39457450 41477504 42107472 42017306 41697259 40987244 40377257 40067341 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 06:15:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 01:15:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601150616.k0F6Gkwx031561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150615 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-151215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/VT/NH/WRN MA/CT/ERN PA/NJ/DE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS VALID 150615Z - 151215Z MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. MIXED PCPN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/FZRA MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING SOUTH OF CAPE COD...CURRENTLY DOWN TO 982MB. MEANWHILE STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE UPPER TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM NORFOLK VA TO BURLINGTON VT. DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WV LOOPS IS MOVING INTO SERN NY/NRN NJ WHICH HAS DISRUPTED ORIGINAL LONG BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF DEPARTING UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE STRONG THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SUPPORTING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITHIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP FROM THE ERN ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO ERN PA/DE. OTHER HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES...RANGING FROM RAIN NEAR THE COASTS TO A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME. FZRA IS NOW OCCURRING FROM CON/BAF/ISP BECAUSE OF WARM AIR LOCATED AROUND 850MB WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ERODED AWAY BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST PCPN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY MORNING. ..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ... 38497574 41347544 44907388 45037207 45017110 40957251 40227310 38457496 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 23:23:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 18:23:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601162325.k0GNPRtT011939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162324 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162324 LAZ000-TXZ000-170130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX....WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162324Z - 170130Z THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH ABOUT 100KT OF FLOW AT 6KM NOTED ON LDB PROFILER AND EWX VWP. THIS VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ATOP A SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SURGING ESEWD FROM NEAR CLL TO LRD. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF FORCING WAS WARM AND MOIST BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAVACA... FAYETTE...AND COLORADO COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FRONT IN DEWITT AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. GIVEN INTENSE MID LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE TO EXHIBIT INCREASING ORGANIZATION... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME LINE SEGMENTS COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GULF THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 01/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27359694 26459780 27619847 30289648 31809578 32549410 30049324 28009610 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 08:51:34 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 03:51:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601170853.k0H8r9so001112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170851 MIZ000-171445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL LWR MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 170851Z - 171445Z PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LWR MI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE TYPE ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS OF NCNTRL LWR MI WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR PSBL. SLEET PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS FAR NWRN LWR MI. CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN WI THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS MN. LARGE WARM CONVEYOR WAS TRANSPORTING LOW/MID-LEVEL MSTR NWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS LK MI AND SRN LWR MI SINCE 06Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING/MOVE NWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE. BUT...THE COLUMN SHOULD MOISTEN RAPIDLY AS STRONGER UVV SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS AT LEAST THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF LWR MI THROUGH THE MORNING. 06Z NAM AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE 0 DEGREE C OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NRN MI BY 15Z. AT THE SAME TIME...AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...WET-BULBING WILL MAINTAIN BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF LWR MI. ONLY FAR NWRN LWR MI WILL SEE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT A SLEET MIX...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONGER UVV. MAINLY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER NW ACROSS UPPER MI. ..RACY.. 01/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43598381 43298415 43358471 43738554 44328594 44698575 45148497 45298443 44708409 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 01:21:55 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 20:21:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601180123.k0I1NXQR013144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180122 NYZ000-PAZ000-180515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 180122Z - 180515Z PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NY THROUGH 06Z. MAINLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BROAD WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LEADING TO EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS SUGGEST AT LEAST LIGHT/EPISODIC FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NY THIS EVENING. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE MELTING LAYER ABOVE MAINTENENCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LATER THIS EVENING...MAGNITUDE OF ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TEND TO INDUCE A SWITCH-OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHERN NY. ..GUYER.. 01/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44287588 44737465 44077362 42947348 42017406 41707431 41537481 41367563 41377630 41337756 41507795 41867812 42537792 42717774 42967729 43407630 43787601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 08:13:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 03:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601180814.k0I8Eu02005855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180813 ORZ000-CAZ000-181415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE CASCADE RANGE INTO SRN ORE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 180813Z - 181415Z SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND THE SRN ORE CASCADE RANGE. SNOWFALL RATES PER HOUR COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE AT TIMES TO 2500 FEET IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS. LATEST SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ONSHORE WRN ORE AND NWRN CA...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET. CONSIDERABLE OPEN CELL TYPE CLOUDS ATTEST TO THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD TO THE N OF THE CYCLONIC JET. IN FACT...NLDN/OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES/OFFSHORE. WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH MID-MORNING... WITH STRONG...MOIST AND UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN CA MOUNTAINS AND SRN ORE CASCADES. CIRA SATL BLENDED TPW STILL SUGGESTS AROUND 0.60-0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT. SNOWFALL LEVELS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE TO 2500-3000 FEET...BUT COULD DIP TO AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE HEAVY SNOW BURSTS. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXIST ABOVE 4000 FEET AND BE CENTERED MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY CA NWD INTO THE SRN ORE CASCADES. ..RACY.. 01/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR...EKA... 41402372 41972363 42292285 42512267 43032236 43442224 43392201 42902207 42202220 41392220 40922306 40972352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 09:37:13 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 04:37:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601180938.k0I9ciqR030144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180937 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-181530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE WASATCH RANGE IN UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 180937Z - 181530Z LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID...THE WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND THE WASATCH RANGE IN UT NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IR-SATL SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS A SWATH FROM NRN NV INTO SRN ID....ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED H7 BAROCLINIC ZONE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS TRANSLATING QUICKLY EWD ALONG THE BASE OF THE CA/ORE TROUGH...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ASCENT. RESULTANT ENHANCED H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WAS LIKELY THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR THE INCREASING PCPN RATES. PCPN RATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS STRONGER MOIST WLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SINK SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. RAWS SITES SUGGEST THAT THE 09Z SNOW LEVELS...RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN ERN ID/TETONS TO 7000 FEET IN THE UT WASATCH RANGE...WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. BY MID-DAY...SNOW LEVELS IN THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL RANGE FROM 3500 FEET IN THE HIGHLANDS OF ERN ID AND THE TETONS TO 5000 FEET IN THE WASATCH RANGE NORTH OF I-80. ..RACY.. 01/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH... 42021074 41521072 41101125 40751178 40881184 40951186 41371191 41531178 41851179 42171180 42381189 42361225 42421252 42811244 43071196 43491161 44001082 42911065 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 19:03:45 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 14:03:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601191905.k0JJ58A6021372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191903 MIZ000-WIZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191903Z - 192300Z OCCASIONALLY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WILL TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN MI UPPER PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY ORIENTED WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER IMPULSE. SIMILAR TO ONGOING TRENDS...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THIS SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH 21Z-00Z. RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DEPICT AMPLE OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR LOCALIZED SNOW RATES FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH... 46619183 46659045 46948937 47158826 46288748 45968911 45839056 45829145 46189195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 23:51:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 18:51:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601192352.k0JNqUp5003729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192350 COZ000-200415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 192350Z - 200415Z MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURATION THROUGH 06Z. SNOW IS ONGOING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE PUEBLO VICINITY AND MUCH OF PUEBLO/CUSTER/HUERFANO COUNTIES. SCENARIO IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS IMPULSE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE/EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL -- REFERENCE WSR-88D VWP FROM DENVER/PUEBLO -- AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED SNOW RATES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINOUS EAST SLOPES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR SUGGEST SEVERAL HOURS OF VERTICAL PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH WELL-SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF PUEBLO...A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED UPON EFFECTIVE SATURATION. ..GUYER.. 01/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 39350486 39340377 38860368 38430412 37950437 37230475 37540548 37980568 38370581 38750579 39210539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 05:39:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 00:39:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601200540.k0K5euWM021560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200540 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200539 KSZ000-COZ000-201145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 200539Z - 201145Z MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AND/OR DEVELOPING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 12 UTC. AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY 12 UTC, FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION AND PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 12 UTC. STRONG MOIST ASCENT IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ..BOTHWELL.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37040431 37760467 38530459 39140375 39380224 39390005 37210129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 16:32:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 11:32:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601201634.k0KGY7o7009843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201632 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO...SERN NEB...SRN/CENTRAL/ERN IA AND NWRN/WCENTRAL IL CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 201632Z - 202130Z A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SCENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO WCENTRAL IA LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD AND EXTEND FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY NERN IA BY 21Z. HRLY RATES WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND MAY EXCEED 1 INCH/HR FOR A 1-2 HR PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER NERN KS AND NRN MO...WITH MODERATE SNOW LIKELY OVER SCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z. CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH HRLY LIQUID EQUIV. RATES UP TO 0.10 IN. LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS INTO FAR SCENTRAL NEB. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SCENTRAL KS HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASING TREND IN LOW LEVEL WAA/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM NRN KS INTO WRN IA. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOCATED IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER /PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY NARROW HVY SNOW BAND FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH 21Z. DRY AIR INITIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE BAND. WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING COEXISTENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER...AND WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW NATURE OF THE BAND MOVEMENT...UP TO A 2 HR DURATION OF 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONTOGENETIC HEAVY SNOWFALL BAND MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO NERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF INCREASING MID LEVEL WAA OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA. FURTHER SOUTH...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WAA...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER NERN KS INTO NRN MO AND SRN IA. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW LEVEL PRESSURE RISES OVER SRN IA/NCENTRAL MO. CONSEQUENTLY THE SFC FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SWD OVER NRN MO/NERN KS. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT /CENTERED AROUND 850 MB/ MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER NERN KS/NRN MO WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NRN MO...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED RECENTLY...HRLY PRECIP RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIXED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS SERN IA/WCENTRAL IL BEFORE 21Z. ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 43019300 41849586 40279775 39939774 39179700 38699580 38999339 40229085 40929045 42469129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:38:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:38:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202140.k0KLe6sb027785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202139 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN IA...SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL...FAR NWRN IND...SWRN/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 202139Z - 210345Z HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL IA INTO SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY WCENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI BY 03Z. SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL THROUGH 00Z...WHILE MOVING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM 01Z-03Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES WILL EXCEED 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH/HR RATES POSSIBLE OVER THE CHI METRO AREA NEWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIX OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NWRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT THAT CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA. NORTH OF THIS DRY SLOT...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WAS AIDING IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN IA. THIS FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING ENEWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND MOVE INTO SRN/ERN WI THROUGH 00Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...STRONG WAA EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP DATA...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING STRIKES/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE-HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP....ONCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN WI AND NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB THAT PRECIP SHOULD START AS SLEET AND MAY AGAIN CHANGE OVER TO SLEET BRIEFLY DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM 00-03Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1-2 INCHES/HR FOR BRIEF PERIODS ACROSS NRN IL/SERN WI FROM 23-02Z. STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION AND CONSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MI FROM 01-03Z. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL AND SWRN LOWER MI/NWRN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SRN IL. THIS SHOULD AID IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST ESTIMATE ON THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/I-90 IN NRN IL AND NORTH OF I-94 IN SWRN LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44488645 44208861 43549063 42779244 42149318 41469265 41139154 41139032 41168963 41288840 41398715 41738631 42028580 42728414 43658395 44498405 44668514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:40:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:40:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202142.k0KLgKHq029753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202141 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN ARK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202141Z - 202345Z AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/ HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING... WHEN 500 MB SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO REACH 90+ KT. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALREADY MIGRATING INTO/ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONGOING IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST NORTHEAST. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR OF LOW...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING LAGGING TO THE WEST...INHIBITION IS STILL TOO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS COULD CHANGE BY 21/00-01Z...WITH POSSIBLE NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS/WEST PLAINS MO AND RUSSELLVILLE AR AREAS. CAPE IS NOT LIKELY NOT TO EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...AND POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37819256 38489204 39369098 38909013 37489084 36249207 35429294 35599384 36839350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:41:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:41:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202142.k0KLgtDR030176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202139 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202139 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN IA...SRN/ERN WI...NRN IL...FAR NWRN IND...SWRN/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 202139Z - 210345Z HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL IA INTO SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY WCENTRAL/NRN LOWER MI BY 03Z. SECONDARY AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL THROUGH 00Z...WHILE MOVING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM 01Z-03Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES WILL EXCEED 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH/HR RATES POSSIBLE OVER THE CHI METRO AREA NEWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. A MIX OF SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NWRN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT THAT CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR SRN IA. NORTH OF THIS DRY SLOT...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WAS AIDING IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN IA. THIS FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING ENEWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND MOVE INTO SRN/ERN WI THROUGH 00Z...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...STRONG WAA EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP DATA...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT BY LIGHTNING STRIKES/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE-HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP....ONCE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN WI AND NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 800 MB THAT PRECIP SHOULD START AS SLEET AND MAY AGAIN CHANGE OVER TO SLEET BRIEFLY DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM 00-03Z. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1-2 INCHES/HR FOR BRIEF PERIODS ACROSS NRN IL/SERN WI FROM 23-02Z. STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION AND CONSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MI FROM 01-03Z. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NRN IL AND SWRN LOWER MI/NWRN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SRN IL. THIS SHOULD AID IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST ESTIMATE ON THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/I-90 IN NRN IL AND NORTH OF I-94 IN SWRN LOWER MI. ..CROSBIE.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 44488645 44208861 43549063 42779244 42149318 41469265 41139154 41139032 41168963 41288840 41398715 41738631 42028580 42728414 43658395 44498405 44668514  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:42:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:42:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202143.k0KLhT0a030603@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202141 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN ARK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202141Z - 202345Z AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/ HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING... WHEN 500 MB SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO REACH 90+ KT. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALREADY MIGRATING INTO/ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONGOING IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST NORTHEAST. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR OF LOW...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING LAGGING TO THE WEST...INHIBITION IS STILL TOO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS COULD CHANGE BY 21/00-01Z...WITH POSSIBLE NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS/WEST PLAINS MO AND RUSSELLVILLE AR AREAS. CAPE IS NOT LIKELY NOT TO EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...AND POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37819256 38489204 39369098 38909013 37489084 36249207 35429294 35599384 36839350  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 21:45:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 16:45:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601202146.k0KLkmtD000687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202145 COR ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-202345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN ARK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202145Z - 202345Z CORRECTED TO CLARIFY 1ST SENTENCE/LAST PARAGRAPH AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/ HIGH PLAINS REGION...MODELS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATE STRENGTHENING OF A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE EVENING... WHEN 500 MB SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO REACH 90+ KT. WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS ALREADY MIGRATING INTO/ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONGOING IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST NORTHEAST. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN TO WARM SECTOR OF LOW...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING LAGGING TO THE WEST...INHIBITION IS STILL TOO STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS COULD CHANGE BY 21/00-01Z...WITH POSSIBLE NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS/WEST PLAINS MO AND RUSSELLVILLE AR AREAS. CAPE IS NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...AND POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... 37819256 38489204 39369098 38909013 37489084 36249207 35429294 35599384 36839350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 05:53:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 00:53:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601210554.k0L5sjL8025174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210552 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 210552Z - 211145Z BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. A NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM FNT TO AZO MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM W TO E WITH TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NERN IND AS OF 05Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS ERN LOWER MI INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED SWWD INTO E-CNTRL IL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM W-CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WITHIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DEFORMATION ZONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP...SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITE GROWTH VIA AGGREGATION. MOREOVER...CONVECTIVE CHARACTER ALONG SRN EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES. THROUGH 21/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM MKG AND BEH NEWD THROUGH LAN TO NEAR OR S OF BAX. HOURLY RATES WILL LIKELY PEAK AT 1-1.5 INCHES THOUGH SOME LOCAL RATES MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ..MEAD.. 01/21/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 42048483 41488742 42578806 44018673 44918372 44888216 43778180 42258380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 18:36:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 13:36:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601221838.k0MIctL8018661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221834 VAZ000-WVZ000-230030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN VA AND ERN WV CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 221834Z - 230030Z FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES OVER 0.05 IN. COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND SERN WV...MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND IMMEDIATE VALLEYS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 21Z. INCREASING EXPECTATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 21-00Z AS WET BULB EFFECTS PERSIST AND DIURNAL COOLING EFFECTS OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY SPREAD NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN VA AND THE WV PANHANDLE BY 00Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES WELL OVER 0.10 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 00Z...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY PRECIPITATION OVER NERN TN AND ERN KY....AIDED BY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA /PER MORRISTOWN VWP DATA/. A SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES /CENTERED AROUND 500 MB/ WAS SUPPORTING THIS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...SFC DATA SHOWS COLD/DRY AIR WAS DAMMED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MTNS OF SERN WV/SWRN VA. RECENT SFC TRENDS SHOW THAT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO WRN VA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS..SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WET-BULB COOLING AFFECTS WITH MODERATE RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR SATURATION TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY /1-2 HRS/ WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE SUB-FREEZING MARK OVER MUCH OF THE SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF SWRN VA AND SERN WV BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER STARTING JUST UNDER 1 KM...SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS /ABOVE 3000 FT/ SHOULD SEE ONLY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENT. ..CROSBIE.. 01/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 37618090 38997943 39287911 39387856 39047808 38457810 37667898 37037966 36967999 36928010 37008060 37338090  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 19:38:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 14:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200601221940.k0MJe6tY023833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221937 LAZ000-MSZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA INTO SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221937Z - 222130Z SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHEAST OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR WEAK SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION STILL APPEARS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MODELS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIFTING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL WEAKEN CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING/ STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21Z... ALONG LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS...SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF BATON ROUGE LA THROUGH AREAS EAST NORTHEAST OF MCCOMB MS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AS SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES REALIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RISK FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE. ..KERR.. 01/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... 30339093 31219070 31858993 31318935 30488962 29789003 29579068 30019107  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 06:49:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 01:49:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060123065013.689EB8B36A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230647 MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-231145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN PA / NRN NJ / FAR SERN NY / SWRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 230647Z - 231145Z FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA...WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN CT. SNOW OVER SERN PA WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN LAST FEW HOURS. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS BASED ON THE NAM AND RUC MODELS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN MOST PROBABLE TYPE IN ZONE BOUNDED BY JST TO AOO TO FIG TO UNV. HRLY FREEZING RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.05" ARE ANTICIPATED SO SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ICING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO RAIN AFTER SUNRISE. FARTHER NE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER ERN PA AND NJ WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD WITH VERY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND RUC INDICATE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN PA AND NJ WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW ZONE ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AND WRN CT THROUGH 12Z. ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 41357350 41247434 41267473 41347544 41277662 41217723 40767777 40077816 39967877 40137897 40687893 41107907 41447864 41837694 42057493 42187376 42037288 41637267  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 12:09:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 07:09:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060123121016.F13D78B389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231207 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-231800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY / NRN CT AND RI / SRN VT AND NH / SRN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231207Z - 231800Z MAXIMUM SNOW RATES OF 1.00-1.50 IN/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OVER FAR SWRN NEW ENGLAND. SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD ON NOSE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION. W-E ORIENTED ZONE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MD AREA. HEAVY SNOW IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN HRLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.10" UPSTREAM. IN ADDITION...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS. GIVEN SOME CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SE AND WARMING ALOFT...PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING...AS INDICATED BY RUC AND NAM PTYPE ALGORITHMS. ..JEWELL.. 01/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 44026970 44057148 43077324 42687471 41717492 41597372 41977083 42887058  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 18:18:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 13:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060123181948.8EDCC8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231818 MEZ000-NHZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME AND PARTS OF NH CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 231818Z - 232215Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 19-20Z OVER ERN/SRN NH...AND BY 21Z OVER SWRN ME. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO DOWNEAST ME BETWEEN 18-20Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVER THIS AREA AROUND 22Z. STRONG WAA IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER AS EVIDENT BY THE BOSTON AND GRAY ME VWP/S AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER CAPE COD WERE SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF ERN NH INTO SWRN ME. CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ENEWD MOTION OF THE STRONGEST WAA ALONG THE 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ENEWD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF SRN ME THROUGH 20Z. SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BECOME ENELY OR NELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO THE SURFACE LOW RESIDING IN THE GULF OF ME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE WRN EDGE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WAS QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS WRN EDGE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BRINGS IT TO THE NH/ME BORDER BY AROUND 20Z...AND TO THE ERN GULF OF ME/DOWNEAST ME BY 23Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE SUPPORT FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL END AND SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. ..CROSBIE/GRAMS.. 01/23/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 45196728 44857042 44307146 43467165 43187143 43137067 43827001 44496814 44746729 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 23:47:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 18:47:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060124234847.617848B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242347 NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-250445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY/WRN AND CNTRL PA/WV CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 242347Z - 250445Z ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/LAKE EFFECT... LATEST WV/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW POTENT JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION GIVEN INCREASING CONVECTION/LIGHTNING OVER SW PA. INITIAL BAND OF SNOW NOW OVER WRN PA WILL MOVE BY FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN PARTICULAR...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV WILL LIKELY HAVE HEAVIER SNOWS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS THE COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT ZONES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO WLY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CAA. EARLIER REPORT OF THUNDERSNOW AT PIT IS EVIDENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM. ..TAYLOR.. 01/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 41597571 40067741 37808082 38328096 41137987 42717881 43137762 44257576 43967460 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 11:45:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 06:45:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128114645.01CB28B3B6@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281145 ORZ000-WAZ000-CAZ000-281745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...THE CASCADE RANGE OF SRN WA / ORE INTO NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281145Z - 281745Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOVE 3000-3500 FT MSL THIS MORNING. THIS HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN WA/NRN ORE AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WA AND ORE COASTS WITH A RECENT BURST OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE ORE COAST. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM E OF UIL TO E OF AST TO JUST E OF ONP AS OF 11Z. EXPECT THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION TO SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN 12-15Z...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY ABOVE 3000-3500 FT MSL. SNOW RATES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT THIS TIME...THOUGH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED RATES UPWARDS OF TWO AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN GENERAL SEWD MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SRN WA AND NRN ORE...WHILE THE HEAVY SNOW MAY WELL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ORE CASCADES INTO NRN CA. ..MEAD.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...STO...SEW...PQR...EKA... 41462348 43972285 46332246 47002221 47432155 46482075 43622111 41572189 40682211 40562309 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 18:14:34 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 13:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128181524.E60D58B397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281814 LAZ000-TXZ000-282045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281814Z - 282045Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN TX INTO WRN LA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. PRE-FRONTAL MCS WITH EMBEDDED LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NERN TX SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL TX. A STRONG 50+ KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN TX TODAY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S INTO SERN TX AND WRN LA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS STILL ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED WITH THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTING W OF A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN TX SSEWD INTO THE WRN GULF. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND CLOUD BREAKS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. LEWP AND BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR OF AHEAD OF THE LINE. MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. ..DIAL.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29519629 30819531 31759413 31509291 30609255 29949307 29509453 28989549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 18:52:28 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 13:52:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128185317.665158B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281852 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-282115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND NRN TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281852Z - 282115Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LOW-END SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TCU ALONG DRYLINE AND WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING BEHIND THE DRYLINE FROM SRN KS INTO N TX AND DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH NO CIN REMAINING. MUCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY VERY WEAK...BUT MAY INCREASE IN A VERY NARROW ZONE E OF DRYLINE. WARM AND VEERED WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUGGESTS CELLS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE NEWD ABOVE STABLE LAYER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING UPSTREAM SUGGEST HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN... 35529548 32479625 31969743 31899840 32149858 33039833 34179804 36849776 39009771 39149726 38869585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 21:45:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 16:45:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060128214616.6D13B8B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282144 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-282345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LA THROUGH EXTREME SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282144Z - 282345Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX...AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED. THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE LA COAST TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN LA. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING LOW TOPPED LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY FOR PERSISTENT UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG N-S BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL LA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE BEFORE THE MERGERS OCCUR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE MERGING PROCESS. ..DIAL.. 01/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30559373 31829338 33259251 33099121 31489165 30269215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 00:58:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 19:58:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060129005931.629348B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290058 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-290300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LA THROUGH EXTREME SERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290058Z - 290300Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX...AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED. THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE LA COAST TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN LA. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING LOW TOPPED LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY FOR PERSISTENT UPRIGHT CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG N-S BOUNDARY OVER E CNTRL LA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE BEFORE THE MERGERS OCCUR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE MERGING PROCESS. ..DIAL.. 01/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30559373 31829338 33259251 33099121 31489165 30269215 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 07:13:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 02:13:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060129071401.B102F8B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290712 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290712Z - 290845Z POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION. AS OF 07Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NWRN AL SWWD THROUGH SRN MS /NEAR PIB/ INTO S-CNTRL LA. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR E OF THIS LINE OVER SERN LA WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NW MSY. AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF 200-300 J/KG /PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE STRONG WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON THE SLIDELL VWP WHERE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS/. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /PER SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES/ IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NE OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS. A SIMILAR TYPE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO PERHAPS FAR SWRN AL EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR PIB SEWD TO W OF MOB/ CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. ..MEAD.. 01/29/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29579153 30469087 31008977 30958886 30748815 29898808 29068982 29079117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 15:29:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 10:29:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060130152957.2B38E8B389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301528 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301528Z - 301730Z THUNDERSTORMS NOW ONGOING OVER SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AL SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY AROUND MIDDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RICHER GULF MOISTURE STILL S OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHILE MORNING RAOBS SHOW FAIRLY PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 900 MB. ABOVE THE CAPPED LAYER HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT ANTICIPATED AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE SERN CONUS. COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS CONVECTION. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WLY WINDS -- AND THUS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...INCREASING FLOW AT MID LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION. EXPECT STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN AL TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND SHEAR INCREASES. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GENERAL LACK OF VEERING IN THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY REQUIRED BY MIDDAY. ..GOSS.. 01/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31098824 31988731 32548601 32948458 31818377 31078404 29808528 30298610 30208802 30208838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 20:50:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 15:50:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060130205056.345B08B395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302050 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302049 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-302245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SRN HALF OF GA/SRN SC/NRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23... VALID 302049Z - 302245Z STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW 23. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER S AND E AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD/SEWD OUT OF CURRENT WW. THUNDERSTORMS -- THOUGH SLOW TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY -- CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SERN AL AND CENTRAL/SWRN GA ATTM. SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THAT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL JET MAX MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SRN ATLANTIC. SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER E AND SE OF CURRENT WW MAY OFFSET THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND THUS YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN THIS...A NEW WATCH EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL NWD TO PARTS OF SRN SC MAY BE REQUIRED BY 22Z. ..GOSS.. 01/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30248825 31278700 33338247 32907973 31998087 30708141 30028130 29358313 30038401 29578503 29968603 29858756 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 23:29:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 18:29:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060130232950.9FF538B394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302328 SCZ000-GAZ000-310100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302328Z - 310100Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THREAT MAY BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED...PROBABLY CONFINED TO NARROW SWATH FROM THE VICINITY OF ALBANY GA THROUGH THE SAVANNAH GA AND CHARLESTON SC AREAS...BUT A NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED BY EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW. MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW APPEARS TO BE SPREADING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...WHERE INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ONGOING. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 03Z...INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AS MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN... NARROW TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/...COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND STRENGTHENING LIFT SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR. CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED PERSISTENT SUPERCELL...OR PERHAPS A SHORT SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 01/30/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31708477 32098392 32468254 32798135 33028036 32827963 31927965 31178101 30878233 30868387 30898459 31178501 WWWW