[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 24 06:36:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 240634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240634 
NDZ000-MTZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NRN AND CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 240634Z - 241130Z

...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
BANDED SNOWFALL ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MT THROUGH NRN SD.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY...

STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE
NRN BITTERROOT MTNS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM AROUND
JDN TO BETWEEN DIK/BIS BY 12Z. RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASING THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. THIS
AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY RUN FROM SDY TO N60 TO BETWEEN DVL/JMS.
ALTHOUGH 800-700 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING IN OOZ RAP/BIS/ABR
SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
HELP SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER DOWNSTREAM AS EVIDENCED BY
REGIONAL RADAR AND RECENT SNOWFALL OBS IN BIS. BOTH RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE DENDRITIC LAYER EXCEEDING
100 MB...ACROSS NERN ND TOWARDS 12Z. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES AS THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE
EAST.

..GRAMS.. 02/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

48980691 49000225 49000225 48990007 48999729 46869773
46910153 47400696 