[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Feb 19 06:46:11 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 190645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190644 
TXZ000-OKZ000-191245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/NCNTRL TX/OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 190644Z - 191245Z

WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE...WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NW TX THROUGH NCNTRL TX AND OK.

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST OF LUBBOCK TX TO NEAR MCALESTER OK.
CLOSE EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST POSSIBLE IMPULSES
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NCNTRL NM WITH A STRONGER WAVE
FROM BAJA INTO NRN SONORA. AT ANY RATE...COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR
IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION.

THE GFS IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL WHICH HAS PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...IT HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SUGGESTING WINTER PCPN FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. ITS 00Z QPF SOLN TONIGHT SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE INITIALLY ACROSS NW TX...BEFORE
SPREADING INTO CNTRL/SRN OK BETWEEN 09-12Z /ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THAT TIME/.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DRY AIR NOTED ABOVE 650 MB ON THE OUN SOUNDING
WILL INHIBIT DENDRITIC PROCESSES FROM OCCURRING UNTIL ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OCCURS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NW TX...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET INITIALLY...WHICH AGREES WITH PTYPE
ALGORITHMS FROM THE GFS/NAM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...PCPN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/FZ
RAIN ACROSS NW TX /LUBBOCK AREA/. ACROSS NCNTRL TX...PCPN WILL
MAINLY BE FZRA/FZDZ DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION NOTED ON 00Z FWD
SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB.

..TAYLOR.. 02/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

32159867 32960288 33630302 35310245 36199880 36109593
35519459 32659463 

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