[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Feb 17 00:00:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162359 
MIZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-170100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/SCNTRL LWR MI...ERN/SRN IND...NWRN/WCNTRL OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...

VALID 162359Z - 170100Z

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN LWR MI WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWWD INTO ECNTRL IL.  WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN EXPANDING NWD INTO
SRN LWR MI LATE THIS AFTN ON VERY STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM ERN IND AND WRN OH NWD INTO SERN LWR MI BENEATH
H5-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEGREES C/KM...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
BUOYANCY.

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A NARROW...LOW-TOPPED LINE OF TSTMS HAS
EVOLVED ACROSS SCNTRL LWR MI AND NCNTRL IND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. 
MEAN WIND COMPONENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE LINE HAVE BACKED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...MAKING LINEAR SEGMENTS THE DOMINANT
MODE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...IF AN UPDRAFT CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG.  THESE
CELLS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES...LOCALLY ACCELERATING THE
LINE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.

A WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM TORNADO WATCH 35 TO INCLUDE SERN
LWR MI.  FARTHER S...PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE WEATHER ARE
PROBLEMATIC.  UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER CNTRL IND DOES NOT LOOK
TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...PROBABLY SINCE IT IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND NORTH OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  IF TSTMS DO
NOT SHOW SIGNS OF MORE ORGANIZATION...A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS
WRN OH OR EXTREME ERN IND.

..RACY.. 02/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...

40218721 41818586 42738504 43138372 43188279 42888251
42798258 41628305 40898375 39628437 38818503 38758576
38648717 38848784 

WWWW