[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Feb 16 22:56:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 162255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162255 
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN/SWRN IND...FAR W KY...SERN
MO...WRN TN...NWRN MS...ERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...34...

VALID 162255Z - 170030Z

CONVECTIVE MODE HAS EVOLVED INTO MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS ECNTRL
IL NWD...BUT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DISCRETE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN IL
AND SERN MO LATE THIS AFTN.  2-8KM MEAN WIND IS MORE NORMAL TO THE
COLD FRONT/STORMS AT FARTHER S LATITUDES.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/BUOYANCY REMAIN ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 33.  BASED
ON 22Z OBSERVATIONS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
BACKED/STRONGER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.  THUS...IT APPEARS THE
HIGHEST TORNADO/LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FROM SRN IL SWD
INTO THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLYS THROUGH 00Z.  FARTHER N...WHILE AN ISOLD
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE LINEAR
MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

ACTIVITY EVOLVING ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO IS EXTRAPOLATED ALONG
THE OH/MS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN 00-01Z.  CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS
LIMITED FARTHER E...BUT STRONG SLY FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGHER LAPSE
RATES ENVIRONMENT MAY RAPIDLY ALTER THERMODYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.  AS A RESULT...AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN
IND...FAR W KY AND EXTREME SRN IL SWD INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 0

..RACY.. 02/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36929236 38329025 41038800 41498739 41458689 40568708
40018721 38958751 38458748 38438586 36758704 34218940
34769151 36739062 

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