[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Feb 16 19:11:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 161911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161910 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...EXTREME NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161910Z - 162045Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG ACROSS
SRN/ERN OK AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS
THIS WITH LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES NOW APPROACHING 8C/KM OVER NCNTRL
TX.  AS A RESULT...INHIBITION IS MINIMAL ALONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS ERN OK WHERE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN. 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS...SPREADING SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX BEFORE MOVING
INTO WRN AR.  SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

..DARROW.. 02/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33859592 35219584 36429457 36089292 33639429 

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