[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 161606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161606 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-162200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN WI/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI/SRN AND
ERN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 161606Z - 162200Z

WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WI...AND WILL
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1"/HR ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER
MI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN AND ERN UPPER MI. FURTHER S ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MI...LOW-LEVEL WARMING SPREADING NWD WILL YIELD A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN WITH TIME.

A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SRN FRINGE -- CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS
NRN IN/NWRN OH AND ACROSS LK ERIE.  

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
ATTM ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF MI COUNTIES AND WWD INTO THE
CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE AREAS.  PRECIPITATION N OF THIS RAIN AREA --
ACROSS CENTRAL WI -- IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH 1"/HR RATES
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS. WITH TIME...HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD INTO SRN AND ERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL AND NRN
LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW...SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE 900 TO 800 MB
LAYER...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH TIME
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.  BY MID
AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF
LOWER MI...WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD AND MAINLY
SNOW OVER THE NRN THIRD AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN UPPER MI.  

THOUGH HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NRN MI WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WINTER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE -- PARTICULARLY WITH HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS.

..GOSS.. 02/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

44459168 46538532 46458426 44828262 43648276 42848334
42958537 42978753 43098946 43959150 

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