[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Feb 16 04:41:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160440 
MIZ000-160945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 160440Z - 160945Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OVER CENTRAL
MI THROUGH 10Z...ALONG AND ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-96
CORRIDOR.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS TO NEAR FLINT. NEAR SURFACE CAA
SUPPORTED BY WEAK PRESSURE RISES WILL OFFSET STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO ALLOW THIS AXIS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVING SLOWLY NWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI
THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND LESS THAN
50 MILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE. MEANWHILE...THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRANSLATE FROM
ECENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 10Z. SEVERAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWBANDS WILL RESULT IN THIS AREA WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1
INCH FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD.

..CROSBIE.. 02/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

45468411 44938645 44008685 43048675 42608625 42768507
42928363 43358269 43778257 44908321 45268337 

WWWW