[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Feb 16 00:41:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 160040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160040 
NEZ000-SDZ000-160645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 160040Z - 160645Z

PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO EXTREME SERN SD WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE LOCAL HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGH 06Z. 
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL EXIST IN A
CORRIDOR 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A 40SE KAIA-KONL-35E KYKN LINE.

A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE BAND OF 25-35DBZ SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING
ACROSS NRN NEB LATE THIS AFTN...ALONG/N OF AN E-W ORIENTED H85-H7
FRONT. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN 18Z MODEL SUITES
SUGGESTED.  RECENT TRENDS IN PROFILERS/VWPS DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
H85 FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO BACK AND ACCELERATE ACROSS KS...PROBABLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER CO.  THIS PROCESS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE RESULTANT STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
NRN NEB AND...EVENTUALLY...EXTREME SERN SD.  MEANWHILE...THE STRONG
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL DEVELOPING SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO THE PNHDL /SEE MCD
#141/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL SUITE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED TOO FAR N
OVER SRN/CNTRL SD WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS.

STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF 1-2 G/KG OF MEAN LAYER
MIXING RATIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS
WRN/NCNTRL NEB.  SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR
THROUGH 06Z.

..RACY.. 02/16/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

42379664 41679921 41090070 40930193 41370246 41990255
42390227 42700097 43149821 43359670 

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