[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Feb 4 18:10:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041809 
OHZ000-MIZ000-042245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 041809Z - 042245Z

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH MDT/PERHAPS LOCALLY
HEAVY WET SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES MAY
REACH 1 IN/HR AFTER 21Z.

MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IN VICINITY OF LAKE HURON AND DEEPENING 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER AT 18Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN INITIALLY EXISTS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI/CENTRAL OH AT MIDDAY...COMPACTING THERMAL
FIELDS ON PERIPHERY OF EARLY-OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A
RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
TREND IN AVAILABLE TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR DETROIT/DAYTON...THIS
SCENARIO APPEARS WELL DEPICTED VIA 15Z RUC/12Z NAM FORECAST VERTICAL
PROFILES AND 09Z SREF CONSENSUS...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW LIKELY
BY 21Z FOR A DETROIT-TOLEDO-FINDLAY-COLUMBUS CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL
/600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND RUC/ IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SSW-NNE BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 02/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

43758266 42948258 41868293 40928230 39758282 39108328
39018358 39178420 39608472 41808439 42608415 43728341 

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