[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011828 
LAZ000-TXZ000-012030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011828Z - 012030Z

SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN TX...LIKELY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TX COASTAL REGION ATTM...BENEATH STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN MORNING
RAOBS. HOWEVER...UVV -- AIDED BY STRONG UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EWD
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ATTM -- IS ALLOWING CAP TO SLOWLY
LIFT/WEAKEN...AS CONFIRMED BY 17Z CRP RAOB.  

THOUGH CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM REMAINS WEAK/ELEVATED ABOVE STRONG
CAP...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF
CAP TO EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

COMBINATION OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND 40 TO 50 KT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST TO EVOLVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS.  THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
HAIL GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

28119824 29659809 31349690 32099476 31759306 29949284
28229618 27689758 

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